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Can Hardin Jefferson make it to the Regional Tournament


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Will be some good second round matchups for HJ and Silsbee

HJ will probably play Center/Chapel Hill runner up or Palestine third in 18

Silsbee second round matchup of the runner up of Bullard/Jacksonville will be better than most realize.  Jacksonville has most of there team back that lost in OT to Highland Park in the second round of the 5a playoffs last year.  HP ranked #10 in the 6a poll this week.  Bullard will have a 6'5 guard who is the real deal.  Won the state in the 4a high jump last year.  Bullard has some kids that can stroke it.

 

Not saying they will lose to any of these teams but if you are looking to far ahead and dont play a good game in the second round these guys are good enough to upset some plans down the road.

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34 minutes ago, cb3plus3 said:

Interesting comment. Interested in why you feel that way? Honest question. 

Basically, I see the district finishing this way:

1. Silsbee     12-0

2. LC-M         8-4

3. Jasper        7-5

4. Lumberton  7-5

5. Bridge City   6-6

 

LC-M has at Lumberton, home vs. Jasper, at WO-S, home vs. Silsbee. I see them going 3-1 in those games losing only to Silsbee.

Jasper has home vs. Silsbee, at LC-M, home vs. BC, at Vidor. I see them going 2-2, losing to Silsbee and LC-M.

Lumberton has home vs. LC-M, at BC, home vs. Vidor. I see them going 2-1, losing to LC-M.

BC has at Vidor, home vs. Lumberton, at Jasper, home vs. WO-S. I see them going 2-2, losing to Lumberton and Jasper.

 

Jasper would get the 3rd seed based on their sweep of Lumberton in district.

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5 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Basically, I see the district finishing this way:

1. Silsbee     12-0

2. LC-M         8-4

3. Jasper        7-5

4. Lumberton  7-5

5. Bridge City   6-6

 

LC-M has at Lumberton, home vs. Jasper, at WO-S, home vs. Silsbee. I see them going 3-1 in those games losing only to Silsbee.

Jasper has home vs. Silsbee, at LC-M, home vs. BC, at Vidor. I see them going 2-2, losing to Silsbee and LC-M.

Lumberton has home vs. LC-M, at BC, home vs. Vidor. I see them going 2-1, losing to LC-M.

BC has at Vidor, home vs. Lumberton, at Jasper, home vs. WO-S. I see them going 2-2, losing to Lumberton and Jasper.

 

Jasper would get the 3rd seed based on their sweep of Lumberton in district.

What's your basis? Besides not liking BC your predictions are based on what? BC beat all of them QST round except Lumberton. 

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4 minutes ago, cb3plus3 said:

What's your basis? Besides not liking BC your predictions are based on what? BC beat all of them QST round except Lumberton. 

I've said all along that I thought LC-M is the 2nd best team in the district and they are starting to play like it. Jasper is hit or miss but I like them at home vs. BC. When I watched the BC/Lumberton game, I came away believing Lumberton was clearly the better team of the two.

I also think BC could possibly lose to Vidor or WO-S or both. The Vidor game was very close the first time and WO-S is due to win a game. But I do think BC wins both of them.

I've seen every team in the district multiple times. I have seen BC at least 4 times this year. I'm just not sold on that team being good enough to get a playoff spot. I believe those wins in first half of district (LC-M, Jasper) were definitely upsets. I think 2nd time around those guys will be more prepared for BC. LC-M certainly was. I expect Jasper to be as well.

Bridge City will have to either beat Jasper on the road or Lumberton at home. I simply don't like their chances in either game.

I believe the cream will rise to the top in this 2nd half of district play. It usually does.

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7 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Basically, I see the district finishing this way:

1. Silsbee     12-0

2. LC-M         8-4

3. Jasper        7-5

4. Lumberton  7-5

5. Bridge City   6-6

 

LC-M has at Lumberton, home vs. Jasper, at WO-S, home vs. Silsbee. I see them going 3-1 in those games losing only to Silsbee.

Jasper has home vs. Silsbee, at LC-M, home vs. BC, at Vidor. I see them going 2-2, losing to Silsbee and LC-M.

Lumberton has home vs. LC-M, at BC, home vs. Vidor. I see them going 2-1, losing to LC-M.

BC has at Vidor, home vs. Lumberton, at Jasper, home vs. WO-S. I see them going 2-2, losing to Lumberton and Jasper.

 

Jasper would get the 3rd seed based on their sweep of Lumberton in district.

Is WOS already out of playoffs?

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1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I've said all along that I thought LC-M is the 2nd best team in the district and they are starting to play like it. Jasper is hit or miss but I like them at home vs. BC. When I watched the BC/Lumberton game, I came away believing Lumberton was clearly the better team of the two.

I also think BC could possibly lose to Vidor or WO-S or both. The Vidor game was very close the first time and WO-S is due to win a game. But I do think BC wins both of them.

I've seen every team in the district multiple times. I have seen BC at least 4 times this year. I'm just not sold on that team being good enough to get a playoff spot. I believe those wins in first half of district (LC-M, Jasper) were definitely upsets. I think 2nd time around those guys will be more prepared for BC. LC-M certainly was. I expect Jasper to be as well.

Bridge City will have to either beat Jasper on the road or Lumberton at home. I simply don't like their chances in either game.

I believe the cream will rise to the top in this 2nd half of district play. It usually does.

I'm certainly glad we aren't playing these games at Starbucks then. That cream is unhealthy I hear rising up to the top. 

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2 minutes ago, cb3plus3 said:

I'm certainly glad we aren't playing these games at Starbucks then. That cream is unhealthy I hear rising up to the top. 

No doubt the games still have to be played.

But my predictions are just that, my predictions. Right or wrong.

I call it like I see it. Other than Silsbee, it doesn't matter to me who makes the playoffs.

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Back to the original question, I would say that HJ has no better than a 25% chance of making it to the Regionals.  The Hawks will face a strong challenge in 17th ranked Chapel Hill in the second round and then 3rd ranked Silsbee in the third.  That's a difficult road.  Silsbee's starting 5 are looking pretty tough right now.  And actually, based on what I've seen so far, 19s fourth place team could give the Hawks a little bit of a scare.  All three of the runners up in District 19 have had a decent first half against the Tigers.

You'd have to say, based on they way they've been playing in the second half, that Silsbee is a good deal better than even money.

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23 hours ago, tcufrog said:

Will be some good second round matchups for HJ and Silsbee

HJ will probably play Center/Chapel Hill runner up or Palestine third in 18

Silsbee second round matchup of the runner up of Bullard/Jacksonville will be better than most realize.  Jacksonville has most of there team back that lost in OT to Highland Park in the second round of the 5a playoffs last year.  HP ranked #10 in the 6a poll this week.  Bullard will have a 6'5 guard who is the real deal.  Won the state in the 4a high jump last year.  Bullard has some kids that can stroke it.

 

Not saying they will lose to any of these teams but if you are looking to far ahead and dont play a good game in the second round these guys are good enough to upset some plans down the road.

None of them can play Silsbee within 20pts

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18 hours ago, cb3plus3 said:

What's your basis? Besides not liking BC your predictions are based on what? BC beat all of them QST round except Lumberton. 

you've got a big a chip on your shoulder.  Everything is criticism or negativity towards BC in your mind, even completely benign posts.  One of the most knowledgeable high school basketball minds in our area gives a perfectly reasonable prediction and you immediately chalk it up to him "not liking BC".  I made a post the other day simply stating that BC had won a must-win game, and somehow that led to a whole rant about my "negative energy" towards BC (please find a single negative post I've made about the Cards this year, btw).  Previously I made a post stating that I liked the Cards' chances against Vidor, and somehow that was "locker room motivation."  This may be hard for you to believe, but apart from just being interested observers, there are very few people on this board outside of BC, Jasper, and Lumberton fans that care at all what happens with BC basketball over the next few weeks.  I've enjoyed following y'all because of the close games, and the district is fun because there are going to be 3 teams fighting for two spots, but if BC makes it to the playoffs or doesn't, most of us people who you're so concerned with won't care a whole lot one way or the other.  

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On 2/2/2023 at 1:29 PM, bullets13 said:

you've got a big a chip on your shoulder.  Everything is criticism or negativity towards BC in your mind, even completely benign posts.  One of the most knowledgeable high school basketball minds in our area gives a perfectly reasonable prediction and you immediately chalk it up to him "not liking BC".  I made a post the other day simply stating that BC had won a must-win game, and somehow that led to a whole rant about my "negative energy" towards BC (please find a single negative post I've made about the Cards this year, btw).  Previously I made a post stating that I liked the Cards' chances against Vidor, and somehow that was "locker room motivation."  This may be hard for you to believe, but apart from just being interested observers, there are very few people on this board outside of BC, Jasper, and Lumberton fans that care at all what happens with BC basketball over the next few weeks.  I've enjoyed following y'all because of the close games, and the district is fun because there are going to be 3 teams fighting for two spots, but if BC makes it to the playoffs or doesn't, most of us people who you're so concerned with won't care a whole lot one way or the other.  

For those like you that don't seem to care, you sure keep BC in your post and mouths. Keep predicting as you are, the pressure is on those of you saying they have no chance or won't make it. Time will tell. 

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14 minutes ago, cb3plus3 said:

For those like you that don't seem to care, you sure keep BC in your post and mouths. Keep predicting as you are, the pressure is on those of you saying they have no chance or won't make it. Time will tell. 

I comment on a wide variety of games, game threads, etc.  and the only prediction I’ve made about BC in several weeks was that they would improve upon their first performance against Silsbee.  

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