Many things affect prices. Wages, government spending, disease among crops/livestock/poultry, weather, war, energy, tariffs…
Inflation is never caused by a single item problem.
The current tariffs aren’t effecting prices at this time. This is a shell game being played by producers/sellers to squeeze a little more profit, and a general excuse for poor company performance. Good management teams are doing just fine as the markets attest.
Tariff costs will hit. But, mainly Brazil. The others are already incorporated into costs. The effective, all-inclusive tariff rate is about 13-15%. Producers are basically absorbing the 10%. With the passage of the BBB, real wage increases (increases minus inflation) should wind up around $3500-$10k/yr. for the average family making ~$70k/year. Obviously, those not paying income tax now will have minimal benefit. That’s where increased medical costs may hurt them.
Medical costs will need to be addressed, or there will be major sticker shock.
I’d expect produce, coffee, chocolate, and beef all to rise in price. But beef is as much due to the screwworm invasion, drought, and low domestic cattle numbers as it is tariffs on Brazil. We only import 20% of our beef from Brazil. Shelf stable items should remain about the same as what they are currently.
I still expect a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in September. I could be wrong. But, they’re behind the 8 ball as I mentioned earlier.