Snapshot day (realignment)

[AverageJoe86]

4 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I agree about the opt up. It should only be for schools with major travel issues. (i.e. El Paso, etc.) Not for schools that are are only traveling 60 or less miles. BC, HJ and Liberty all opted up for competition reasons. Not travel. You'll never convince me otherwise. I can see BC opting up because they are actually very close to DI numbers anyway. HJ and Liberty are not even close.

Also, I am not all that hip on all the other sports going to divisions but if that is how it's going to be, then have divisional districts like football and not decide the divisions after district play. That actually allows a larger school to get in D2 depending on who makes playoffs.

If they do go with divisional districts this next realignment for all sports (I am hearing they won't) then schools that opt up for football should have to play all the rest of their sports in that football district. You shouldn't be able to pick and choose what sport you want to opt up in and not.

100% agree. You shouldn't be able to pick and choose...

[Darth Texas]

5 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I agree about the opt up. It should only be for schools with major travel issues. (i.e. El Paso, etc.) Not for schools that are are only traveling 60 or less miles. BC, HJ and Liberty all opted up for competition reasons. Not travel. You'll never convince me otherwise. I can see BC opting up because they are actually very close to DI numbers anyway. HJ and Liberty are not even close.

Also, I am not all that hip on all the other sports going to divisions but if that is how it's going to be, then have divisional districts like football and not decide the divisions after district play. That actually allows a larger school to get in D2 depending on who makes playoffs.

If they do go with divisional districts this next realignment for all sports (I am hearing they won't) then schools that opt up for football should have to play all the rest of their sports in that football district. You shouldn't be able to pick and choose what sport you want to opt up in and not.

I thought HJ and BC didn’t even deny opting up for competition reasons — They pretty openly were trying to get away from Silsbee, WOS, and HF. I don’t remember a source, and I may be remembering what people were publicly assuming. Regardless, I agree: Opting up shouldn’t be allowed unless there are compelling non-competitive reasons justifying it, like travel distance. 

[Vini vidi]

Good chance that there is a school or two knocking on the 4000+ door will be in 6a d2. Once realignment numbers come out. We will see if I’m right

[oldschool2]

4 hours ago, DukeS said:

I’m for keeping competition fair within reason. Maybe splitting 6a makes sense because those schools tend to be in closer proximity to each other in major metros, but I don’t know that it’s a good idea for even 5A and below to be split.

Not everyone has to make the playoffs and we certainly don’t need 12 different state champions. 

You're ok with schools playing another school with double their enrollment in district competition?  Think about the top enrollment number of 5A D1 (2274) compared to the bottom number of 5A D2 (1315).  Bottom of 4A D2 (545) vs. top of 4A D1 (1314).  Bottom of 3A D2 (254) vs. top of 3A D1 (544).  etc..

Whether it two schools with 6A numbers or 2 schools with 1A numbers.. in the average athletic/academic competition, the school with twice as many students to choose from will have somewhat of an advantage.

Surely you're not saying that's not true.

[DukeS]

34 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

You're ok with schools playing another school with double their enrollment in district competition?  Think about the top enrollment number of 5A D1 (2274) compared to the bottom number of 5A D2 (1315).  Bottom of 4A D2 (545) vs. top of 4A D1 (1314).  Bottom of 3A D2 (254) vs. top of 3A D1 (544).  etc..

Whether it two schools with 6A numbers or 2 schools with 1A numbers.. in the average athletic/academic competition, the school with twice as many students to choose from will have somewhat of an advantage.

Surely you're not saying that's not true.

If those schools don’t have to make multi-hour trips just for district games, then yes I would support that.  I realize that I might place a higher value on reasonable travel compared to most in this forum.  

Long travel distances can become a significant burden for districts and the community. 

[Matthew328]

16 hours ago, setxathlete14 said:

Yeah I missed that comment. Thats not even close to being correct on any planet lol

Shepherd in our computer models is a 4-point favorite over H-J not unrealistic by any means

[Matthew328]

4 hours ago, DukeS said:

If those schools don’t have to make multi-hour trips just for district games, then yes I would support that.  I realize that I might place a higher value on reasonable travel compared to most in this forum.  

Long travel distances can become a significant burden for districts and the community. 

Schools always can opt up to play closer to home....so for example PNG could opt up to D1 and play in 9-5A D1

[DukeS]

1 hour ago, Matthew328 said:

Schools always can opt up to play closer to home....so for example PNG could opt up to D1 and play in 9-5A D1

Similarly, Bryan Rudder, Huntsville, and the Montgomery isd schools could opt up to play closer to the two college station 5a D1 schools. At least those would be about an hour apart. 

I’m sure that would be a tough sell to the coaches and ADs though. There’s not a perfect solution that would make everyone happy in such a big state. 

[89Falcon]

8 hours ago, Matthew328 said:

Shepherd in our computer models is a 4-point favorite over H-J not unrealistic by any means

Your computer model had Jasper as an 11 point favorite over Shepherd. HJ would have zero chance to make the playoffs in D2. 

[Matthew328]

8 hours ago, DukeS said:

Similarly, Bryan Rudder, Huntsville, and the Montgomery isd schools could opt up to play closer to the two college station 5a D1 schools. At least those would be about an hour apart. 

I’m sure that would be a tough sell to the coaches and ADs though. There’s not a perfect solution that would make everyone happy in such a big state. 

There's not

[Matthew328]

1 hour ago, 89Falcon said:

Your computer model had Jasper as an 11 point favorite over Shepherd. HJ would have zero chance to make the playoffs in D2. 

Computer model also gets a ton right..but typically its only the misses they remember..saying H-J would beat Shepherd isn't some off the wall prediction...its in my view totally plausible in a hypothetical world 

[89Falcon]

7 minutes ago, Matthew328 said:

Computer model also gets a ton right..but typically its only the misses they remember..saying H-J would beat Shepherd isn't some off the wall prediction...its in my view totally plausible in a hypothetical world 

Understood. Computer model has not been close on Shepherd scores many times this year. 
 

Do you have a means of checking the average variance?

[oldschool2]

18 hours ago, DukeS said:

If those schools don’t have to make multi-hour trips just for district games, then yes I would support that.  I realize that I might place a higher value on reasonable travel compared to most in this forum.  

Long travel distances can become a significant burden for districts and the community. 

I'm sure that the coaching staffs along with several community members would be ok with traveling a little further to play similarly sized schools rather than playing against schools with potentially double their enrollment and potentially being non competitive in literally most UIL competitions.  Just saying.

[bullets13]

19 hours ago, oldschool2 said:

You're ok with schools playing another school with double their enrollment in district competition?  Think about the top enrollment number of 5A D1 (2274) compared to the bottom number of 5A D2 (1315).  Bottom of 4A D2 (545) vs. top of 4A D1 (1314).  Bottom of 3A D2 (254) vs. top of 3A D1 (544).  etc..

Whether it two schools with 6A numbers or 2 schools with 1A numbers.. in the average athletic/academic competition, the school with twice as many students to choose from will have somewhat of an advantage.

Surely you're not saying that's not true.

glad i read to the next page before i responded with exactly this. you're correct.

[bullets13]

5 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

Your computer model had Jasper as an 11 point favorite over Shepherd. HJ would have zero chance to make the playoffs in D2. 

I'm not downplaying the fact that the pirates have improved this year, but the best wins on their schedule are against 3A teams with 3-5 records. Most of those matchups against weak 3A schools were somewhat competitive, too. two wins against 4A squads with a combined 1-15 record. A 42-6 loss against the only good opponent faced all year. If there was a matchup between HJ and Shepherd tomorrow in the pickems I would pick Shepherd, but nothing that's happened this year screams that Shepherd is lightyears ahead of the Hawks to where anyone should be 100% confident that the pirates would win that matchup. I'm comfortable saying that if the two teams swapped schedules they'd come really close to swapping records as well. 

[Matthew328]

4 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

Understood. Computer model has not been close on Shepherd scores many times this year. 
 

Do you have a means of checking the average variance?

Only thing I've seen is picking winners and over a 5 year average its just just shy if 81% in the regular season...playoffs go down to just above 64% which makes sense...

I'd probably have to have an excel wizard do some work to get a variance based on the predicted spread

[89Falcon]

38 minutes ago, Matthew328 said:

Only thing I've seen is picking winners and over a 5 year average its just just shy if 81% in the regular season...playoffs go down to just above 64% which makes sense...

I'd probably have to have an excel wizard do some work to get a variance based on the predicted spread

Just pointed out that the margins from your computer have been way off concerning margins on Shepherd this year.

Anyone who pays attention to the sport can accurately predict “winners” based upon history of the programs. Especially on a wide scale. 
 

 

[Matthew328]

10 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

Just pointed out that the margins from your computer have been way off concerning margins on Shepherd this year.

Anyone who pays attention to the sport can accurately predict “winners” based upon history of the programs. Especially on a wide scale. 
 

 

I think most who pay attention can go statewide picking winners at a 65-70% clip depending on the year...I run at around 70% on the small sample that I pick...but I'm also picking the marquee games with typically smaller margins...the computer running at +80% for 5 yrs is pretty salty....I think that'd be hard to find a person doing that for that long that consistently 

[WOSdrummer99]

42 minutes ago, Matthew328 said:

I think most who pay attention can go statewide picking winners at a 65-70% clip depending on the year...I run at around 70% on the small sample that I pick...but I'm also picking the marquee games with typically smaller margins...the computer running at +80% for 5 yrs is pretty salty....I think that'd be hard to find a person doing that for that long that consistently 

Interesting side topic. Pickems usually run about the same. 77% is leading this season

[bullets13]

4 hours ago, WOSdrummer99 said:

Interesting side topic. Pickems usually run about the same. 77% is leading this season

Would be curious to see if the computers would win if someone exclusively picked based on them next year 

[AggiesAreWe]

3 hours ago, bullets13 said:

Would be curious to see if the computers would win if someone exclusively picked based on them next year 

I have basically picked off that computer. Not 100% but somewhere in the 75-80% I have used it's picks.

[OlDawg]

9 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I have basically picked off that computer. Not 100% but somewhere in the 75-80% I have used it's picks.

Don’t play the formal pick’ems. I look at computer projections. But, more for entertainment value. I’d imagine accuracy is highly dependent on key injury situations, weather, and things that can’t be input from a statistical equation.

Usually, I’m in the 70% range. Some weeks way better than others pending the games. I don’t know all the smaller schools that well at all.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

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[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

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[lcm93]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

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Nevada community will be moving up to 5a div 2

On 10/28/2025 at 3:59 PM, navydawg31 said:

Mid county schools traveling to Huntsville for a district game shouldn’t have ever happened… 

just like Mid County and Port Arthur Memorial a few years ago round 1 playoff games from the bottom of the state to the top of the state matchups. Hopefully UIL gets it together… no reason setx schools should be in region 2.