Lumberton (23) vs Tyler Chapel Hill (35) - FINAL

[SmashMouth]

10 minutes ago, 2wedge said:

LCM is a cautionary tale for Lumberton to work not to emulate. When LCM lost last year, all of SETX assumed they were back and the train would keep on rolling. Unfortunately, they fell off a cliff this year. Lumberton would be served not to get too high on themselves and enter the offseason with the same hunger they had this offseason when expectations for their success were 0. 

I don’t think lack of hunger or off-season expectations were the issue with LCM. Sometimes, you either have the tools or you don’t. Same goes for Lumberton moving forward. Although, I hope they can keep it up. 

[AthleticSupporter - Jock]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:18 PM, setxathlete14 said:

Not sure how CH sizes up but lumberton is the only school in the district that didn't have to have any 2 way starters. They're really a 5A team playing down right now.

I keep reading where some of you are predicting Lumberton will move back up to 5A next realignment.  That seems silly to me considering that Lumberton's snapshot # decreased over the last 4 years (1222 down to 1215) while the UIL cutoff to move up to 5A consistently goes up each time.  Maybe you guys know something that I don't but it seems pretty clear that Lumberton will still be 4AD1 at the next realignment.  To have an intelligent discussion about this, someone could pull up the last 5 UIL cutoff #s and compare that trend to the less than 2% average annual growth in enrollment at LHS over that same time period.  Maybe you guys are teaching that new Common Core curriculum math in your district but UIL #s and LHS #s seem pretty basic,  You only have to know how to add, subtract and occasionally divide to figure this stuff out.  Use Excel if it gets too difficult.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Are the numbers up significantly at Lumberton Middle School right now?? If so that would be my only guess as to why folks think Lumberton will be moving back up in classification soon. 

[LCMAlumtiger32]

14 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Are the numbers up significantly at Lumberton Middle School right now?? If so that would be my only guess as to why folks think Lumberton will be moving back up in classification soon. 

I believe 8th grade or 9th grade class is the largest they ever had 

[Dat Brook]

2 hours ago, AthleticSupporter - Jock said:

I keep reading where some of you are predicting Lumberton will move back up to 5A next realignment.  That seems silly to me considering that Lumberton's snapshot # decreased over the last 4 years (1222 down to 1215) while the UIL cutoff to move up to 5A consistently goes up each time.  Maybe you guys know something that I don't but it seems pretty clear that Lumberton will still be 4AD1 at the next realignment.  To have an intelligent discussion about this, someone could pull up the last 5 UIL cutoff #s and compare that trend to the less than 2% average annual growth in enrollment at LHS over that same time period.  Maybe you guys are teaching that new Common Core curriculum math in your district but UIL #s and LHS #s seem pretty basic,  You only have to know how to add, subtract and occasionally divide to figure this stuff out.  Use Excel if it gets too difficult.

Not really sure where you're getting your numbers from because the last two enrollments have went up. I account for some of the new folks that have moved to Southern Hardin County and I can guarantee you people are moving into the area escaping BISD. Eighth grade enrollment is through the roof. Barring a larger than nominal increase in the bottom 5A number or some chicanery by the Lumberton School District, they'll move up in '24.

[Dat Brook]

3 hours ago, SmashMouth said:

I don’t think lack of hunger or off-season expectations were the issue with LCM. Sometimes, you either have the tools or you don’t. Same goes for Lumberton moving forward. Although, I hope they can keep it up. 

Someone else on the team taking snaps and play calls that actually made sense at the time instead of Morris left, Morris right, and Morris up the middle and you'd be correct.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

16 minutes ago, Dat Brook said:

Not really sure where you're getting your numbers from because the last two enrollments have went up. I account for some of the new folks that have moved to Southern Hardin County and I can guarantee you people are moving into the area escaping BISD. Eighth grade enrollment is through the roof. Barring a larger than nominal increase in the bottom 5A number or some chicanery by the Lumberton School District, they'll move up in '24.

He's right. 2020 they turned in 1222, 2022 was 1215. It's not a significant drop, I call it being stagnant. 

[LCMAlumtiger32]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

He's right. 2020 they turned in 1222, 2022 was 1215. It's not a significant drop, I call it being stagnant. 

The 8th grade class will be the largest in Lumberton history that is coming through. So the question is do they count the 8th grade class coming in?  

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 minute ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

The 8th grade class will be the largest in Lumberton history that is coming through. So the question is do they count the 8th grade class coming in?  

That 8th grade class will be on campus as Freshmen next snapshot day. 

[LCMAlumtiger32]

1 minute ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

That 8th grade class will be on campus as Freshmen next snapshot day. 

It will be interesting. They also have talented qb coming up. 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 minute ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

It will be interesting. 

Yup. And with the UIL you really never know what they'll do. They might not raise the ceiling that much. 🤷🏾‍♂️ we'll see in late 2023. 

[Dat Brook]

1 hour ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

He's right. 2020 they turned in 1222, 2022 was 1215. It's not a significant drop, I call it being stagnant. 

Why am I seeing 1,244? The 1,215 number is what was turned into UIL last year for the 2022 to 2024 redistricting correct?

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

2 minutes ago, Dat Brook said:

Why am I seeing 1,244? The 1,215 number is what was turned into UIL last year for the 2022 to 2024 redistricting correct?

Yup. 1222 is what they turned in for 2020. Where are you seeing 1244?

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

If you type into google 'Lumberton UIL enrollment number 2020' a pdf file pops up from the UIL website. It lists every ISD. Scroll thru and you'll see Lumberton at 1222 for 2020. 

[setxathlete14]

Am I wrong about lumberton growing fast? Its a great area with alot of developing real-estate thats where i get my prediction from.

[setxathlete14]

2 hours ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Are the numbers up significantly at Lumberton Middle School right now?? If so that would be my only guess as to why folks think Lumberton will be moving back up in classification soon. 

Yes

[Dat Brook]

31 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

If you type into google 'Lumberton UIL enrollment number 2020' a pdf file pops up from the UIL website. It lists every ISD. Scroll thru and you'll see Lumberton at 1222 for 2020. 

Publicschoolreview.com

The only reason why I used them as a source is who would randomly pull out a number like that? There has to be some data backing it.

Anyways I would be shocked if they were in 4A come 2024.

[raideroldtimer]

14 hours ago, BEARCPA said:

I didn't know that was a rule, unless he waved for a fair catch of course.

I spoke to my brother about this call, as he just retired as a high school football official. I described how the ball was well past 10 yards and how the opposing player seemed like he was frozen when our guys jumped on the ball. Ther actually is an interference call for kick offs BUT the ball must still be in the air and in this case the ball was clearly on the ground. Theymade a huge mistake on that call and very possibly turned the game around for CH.

[AthleticSupporter - Jock]

12 hours ago, setxathlete14 said:

Am I wrong about lumberton growing fast? Its a great area with alot of developing real-estate thats where i get my prediction from.

You are not wrong about Lumberton growth, great area to live and lots of developing real estate.  I just focus on the #s.  Lumberton's rate of growth has not changed.  Here are the last 4 UIL snapshot #s: 1158 (5A), 1125 (4A), 1222 (4A), 1215 (4A).  UIL cutoff #s to move up to 5A for the same years: 1100, 1160, 1230, 1300.  So, historically, UIL has raised that cutoff # by about 60-70 students every 2 years.  Another way to say it would be that the growth rate of the UIL cutoff # is more than 3 times that of the LHS enrollment growth rate.  But occasionally there are anomalies.  An unusually small senior class exiting while an unusually large 8th grade class entering HS can cause a change in classification.  If the UIL cutoff # only increases by half of what they have done historically, that is still a cutoff of 1330.  Just how big is this 8th grade class?  Do they have 115 more kids than the current senior class?

[setxathlete14]

28 minutes ago, AthleticSupporter - Jock said:

You are not wrong about Lumberton growth, great area to live and lots of developing real estate.  I just focus on the #s.  Lumberton's rate of growth has not changed.  Here are the last 4 UIL snapshot #s: 1158 (5A), 1125 (4A), 1222 (4A), 1215 (4A).  UIL cutoff #s to move up to 5A for the same years: 1100, 1160, 1230, 1300.  So, historically, UIL has raised that cutoff # by about 60-70 students every 2 years.  Another way to say it would be that the growth rate of the UIL cutoff # is more than 3 times that of the LHS enrollment growth rate.  But occasionally there are anomalies.  An unusually small senior class exiting while an unusually large 8th grade class entering HS can cause a change in classification.  If the UIL cutoff # only increases by half of what they have done historically, that is still a cutoff of 1330.  Just how big is this 8th grade class?  Do they have 115 more kids than the current senior class?

Also. High flying success leads to transfers from other schools on top of the normal growth. And being from the area lumbertons growth "seems" much higher than most other places around in my opinion 

[SmashMouth]

On 11/28/2022 at 5:51 PM, Dat Brook said:

Someone else on the team taking snaps and play calls that actually made sense at the time instead of Morris left, Morris right, and Morris up the middle and you'd be correct.

My point exactly. They didn’t have the tools…

[setxathlete14]

On 11/29/2022 at 8:36 AM, AthleticSupporter - Jock said:

You are not wrong about Lumberton growth, great area to live and lots of developing real estate.  I just focus on the #s.  Lumberton's rate of growth has not changed.  Here are the last 4 UIL snapshot #s: 1158 (5A), 1125 (4A), 1222 (4A), 1215 (4A).  UIL cutoff #s to move up to 5A for the same years: 1100, 1160, 1230, 1300.  So, historically, UIL has raised that cutoff # by about 60-70 students every 2 years.  Another way to say it would be that the growth rate of the UIL cutoff # is more than 3 times that of the LHS enrollment growth rate.  But occasionally there are anomalies.  An unusually small senior class exiting while an unusually large 8th grade class entering HS can cause a change in classification.  If the UIL cutoff # only increases by half of what they have done historically, that is still a cutoff of 1330.  Just how big is this 8th grade class?  Do they have 115 more kids than the current senior class?

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Where's my numbers guy here

[LCMAlumtiger32]

2 hours ago, setxathlete14 said:

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Where's my numbers guy here

They 8th grade has over 400 in the class

[AthleticSupporter - Jock]

On 12/8/2022 at 8:51 PM, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

They 8th grade has over 400 in the class

I call ... on that statement. Just because someone said it,  doesn't make it true. 

[LCMAlumtiger32]

15 minutes ago, AthleticSupporter - Jock said:

I call ... on that statement. Just because someone said it,  doesn't make it true. 

Ill try to send it to you. Its on LISD webpage lol