89Falcon

32 minutes ago, wo-s#1 said:

Not to get you two distracted but just know we all here to find who gets the last word and wins the battle of the know it alls!!

I am expecting him to concede very soon. Will be hard to continue with the recent trend. 

6 hours ago, oldschool2 said:

I chose 60k and 53k respectively because the line between lower class and middle class in Texas is 53k.. according to a quick google search.  I figured the average income should be slightly higher (on average) in suburban/urban areas.  Which is why I chose 60k for the 6A/5A/4A marker.  Was I wrong in thinking that?  Use a different number if you want.  Use 70k.. or 80k.. or 100k.  Do you think the percentage of schools that have a successful football season will go up or down with the increase of that household income?

That was rhetorical.  Of the schools in a district/town with an average household income of 100k or more, 100% of them had a winning football season.  Every. Single. One. 

Median household income in Texas is currently at $79k. You can draw no conclusions without a total number of districts in each income bracket. If there are 30 in one range and 50 in another range then you would expect to see more from the range with 50. 
 

A “numbers guy” should understand this beforehand. 
 

Also, does “every single one” mean: “not nearly all of them”? Exceeding poorly thought out comment. Grapevine, Katy Taylor, Flower Mound, Kingwood, VR Eaton, Northwest, on and on as far as you want to go.

1 hour ago, oldschool2 said:

There are 96 schools that made the state quarterfinals.  65 of those 96 schools have at least $60k average household incomes.

I also comprised a list of all of the 6A/5A/4A schools in the state, along with their respective household income, and their regular season record for the 2025 football season.  There are 166 schools that have an average household income of $60k or greater.  23.7% of those schools (40) had a winning record (6-4 or better).  There are 84 schools in the group with an average household income of less than $60k. 12% of those schools (10) had a winning record (6-4 or better).

I also went ahead and did a list of 3A schools.. just for fun.  Of the schools that had an average household income of $53k (low class in Tx) or more, 77.4% of them had a winning record (6-4 or better).  Of the schools that had an average income of less than $53k, 33.2% of them had a winning record (6-4 or better).

So.. even though there are other factors and exceptions.  6A/5A/4A schools that have an average household income of $60k or more have two times the statistical likelihood of having a winning season.  And 3AD1 schools with average household incomes of $53k or more have a 77% chance of a winning record, compare to a 33% chance of those that make less than $53k.

Again.. I know there are other details involved.  But.. I'm a numbers guy.  And these numbers tell a story.

Understood that you are a "numbers guy". You believe that a combined household income of $60k (two parent making 30k each) is significantly different than $50k (two parents making $25k each) and offers an athletic advantage. 

Also being a "numbers guy", you should know that no statistical conclusion can be made without simultaneously showing the numbers for all districts in Texas that did not make it to the semi-finals or without identifying how many districts are within each threshold. Example: What is the number of schools in Texas below $50k median income in Texas vs those $50-60k, above $60k.

Or, "how many schools in Texas are above/below whatever range you choose to consider". 

4 hours ago, oldschool2 said:

Here are all of the state quarterfinalists from 2025.. and an estimated HH income for said school district according to Ai : ($53,147 is considered below middle class in Texas)

Classification / Division	School	District / Area	Est. Median HH Income
6A DI	Allen	Allen ISD	~$128,000
6A DI	North Crowley	Crowley ISD	~$83,000
6A DI	Duncanville	Duncanville ISD	~$63,000
6A DI	Waxahachie	Waxahachie ISD	~$92,000
6A DI	Galena Park North Shore	Galena Park ISD	~$58,000
6A DI	Dickinson	Dickinson ISD	~$87,000
6A DI	Lake Travis	Lake Travis ISD	~$148,000
6A DI	San Antonio Johnson	North East ISD	~$78,000
6A DII	Southlake Carroll	Carroll ISD	~$250,000+
6A DII	Denton Guyer	Denton ISD	~$89,000
6A DII	DeSoto	DeSoto ISD	~$79,000
6A DII	Willis	Willis ISD	~$73,000
6A DII	Sheldon C.E. King	Sheldon ISD	~$66,000
6A DII	Humble Summer Creek	Humble ISD	~$84,000
6A DII	Austin Vandegrift	Leander ISD	~$116,000
6A DII	Dripping Springs	Dripping Springs ISD	~$128,000
5A DI	Aledo	Aledo ISD	~$126,000
5A DI	Denton Ryan	Denton ISD	~$89,000
5A DI	Frisco Lone Star	Frisco ISD	~$146,000
5A DI	Dallas Highland Park	Highland Park ISD	~$244,000+
5A DI	Port Arthur Memorial	Port Arthur ISD	~$42,000
5A DI	Barbers Hill	Barbers Hill ISD	~$108,000
5A DI	Smithson Valley	Comal ISD	~$96,000
5A DI	New Braunfels	New Braunfels ISD	~$74,000
5A DII	Melissa	Melissa ISD	~$118,000
5A DII	Argyle	Argyle ISD	~$147,000
5A DII	Dallas South Oak Cliff	Dallas ISD	~$61,000
5A DII	Port Neches-Groves	PNG ISD	~$76,000
5A DII	Richmond Randle	Lamar CISD	~$96,000
5A DII	Iowa Colony	Alvin ISD	~$89,000
5A DII	Boerne	Boerne ISD	~$104,000
5A DII	San Antonio Alamo Heights	Alamo Heights ISD	~$132,000
4A DI	Stephenville	Stephenville ISD	~$63,000
4A DI	Canyon West Plains	Canyon ISD	~$79,000
4A DI	Celina	Celina ISD	~$127,000
4A DI	Alvarado	Alvarado ISD	~$79,000
4A DI	Kilgore	Kilgore ISD	~$63,000
4A DI	Fort Bend Crawford	Fort Bend ISD	~$109,000
4A DI	La Vernia	La Vernia ISD	~$95,000
4A DI	Comal Davenport	Comal ISD	~$96,000
4A DII	Brock	Brock ISD	~$101,000
4A DII	Midland Greenwood	Greenwood ISD	~$97,000
4A DII	Carthage	Carthage ISD	~$56,000
4A DII	Athens	Athens ISD	~$54,000
4A DII	West Orange-Stark	West Orange-Cove CISD	~$55,000
4A DII	Waco La Vega	La Vega ISD	~$58,000
4A DII	Sinton	Sinton ISD	~$67,000
4A DII	Cuero	Cuero ISD	~$59,000
3A DI	Peaster	Peaster ISD	~$92,000
3A DI	Paradise	Paradise ISD	~$88,000
3A DI	Grandview	Grandview ISD	~$86,000
3A DI	Pottsboro	Pottsboro ISD	~$87,000
3A DI	Yoakum	Yoakum ISD	~$57,000
3A DI	Columbus	Columbus ISD	~$71,000
3A DI	Llano	Llano ISD	~$59,000
3A DI	Edna	Edna ISD	~$58,000
3A DII	Wall	Wall ISD	~$92,000
3A DII	Idalou	Idalou ISD	~$71,000
3A DII	Gunter	Gunter ISD	~$118,000
3A DII	Leonard	Leonard ISD	~$78,000
3A DII	Newton	Newton ISD	~$46,000
3A DII	Arp	Arp ISD	~$58,000
3A DII	East Bernard	East Bernard ISD	~$82,000
3A DII	Tidehaven	Tidehaven ISD	~$63,000
2A DI	West Texas	West Texas ISD	~$67,000
2A DI	Cisco	Cisco ISD	~$53,000
2A DI	Hamilton	Hamilton ISD	~$57,000
2A DI	Axtell	Axtell ISD	~$61,000
2A DI	Joaquin	Joaquin ISD	~$50,000
2A DI	San Augustine	San Augustine ISD	~$43,000
2A DI	Refugio	Refugio ISD	~$63,000
2A DI	Mason	Mason ISD	~$61,000
2A DII	Gruver	Gruver ISD	~$71,000
2A DII	Stratford	Stratford ISD	~$83,000
2A DII	Muenster	Muenster ISD	~$89,000
2A DII	Lindsay	Lindsay ISD	~$95,000
2A DII	Mount Enterprise	Mount Enterprise ISD	~$49,000
2A DII	Bremond	Bremond ISD	~$48,000
2A DII	Shiner	Shiner ISD	~$68,000
2A DII	Junction	Junction ISD	~$50,000
1A D1 (6-man)	Rankin	Rankin ISD	~$81,000
1A D1 (6-man)	Water Valley	Water Valley ISD	~$64,000
1A D1 (6-man)	Gordon	Gordon ISD	~$67,000
1A D1 (6-man)	Union Hill	Union Hill ISD	~$60,000
1A D2 (6-man)	Jayton	Jayton-Girard ISD	~$56,000
1A D2 (6-man)	Klondike	Klondike ISD	~$59,000
1A D2 (6-man)	Richland Springs	Richland Springs ISD	~$52,000
1A D2 (6-man)	Strawn	Strawn ISD	~$55,000

So, what exactly have you shown? That “Onalaska has everything economically needed to be competitive”? Or that “median income is not a determining factor for success”?

13 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

I'd have to see some statistics on that.  I'm not believing that high household incomes doesn't correlate to money pumped into public school athletic programs.  And also.. money that it takes to put student athletes through offseason leagues/camps/training.  I'd never say that exceptions aren't out there.. but you won't convince me that the ratio of kids of affluent homes and kids of poor homes is anywhere near equal in total numbers when it comes to participation in year round playing/training.  There's just no way.

Not sure where I said “household income doesn’t contribute to money pumped into programs”. What I did say is: there are “many” programs “with money” that are in poor socioeconomic areas. The greatest influx of $$ comes from local industry. 
 

I also said: “for every successful affluent area there is another one that is unsuccessful”. The unsuccessful affluent programs are not an “exception” and the successful non-affluent areas are not an exception either. 

9 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Is week-4 still an automatic win? 

No

27 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

Do you not believe that the money put into sports programs have an overall more positive impact than those same programs in schools that can't put similar funding?  (facilities, equipment, training programs, coaching caliber, number of coaches, kids' time/ability to train, etc.).  So that doesn't matter because of some exceptions that prove otherwise? 

If that's what you're saying, let's just agree to disagree.  And in the case of Onalaska and Brock.. I don't think it matters how closely Onalaska develops the football program to how Brock did it.  It will not yield the same results.. or even close to.   Large in part to the list of things I just provided. 

I am saying that money put into programs, often does not originate with median household income. I am also saying that for every example of an affluent area that is successful there is one that is unsuccessful. 
 

***There are few schools in Texas history that have matched Brock results. That is irrelevant for determining if they utilized an effective model for other schools.

1 hour ago, oldschool2 said:

Median household income is generally used as a benchmark for measuring relative poverty.  I already said that there are exceptions.  You listed some of said exceptions.  Now do median household income for Mart, Brock, Aledo, Allen, Austin LT and WL, Katy... 

I think the comparison made in this conversation was Brock and Onalaska.  I'd bet a considerable amount of money that the median household incomes in this particular comparison is an indicator to how much money is in the community, how much money is paid in school taxes, how much money in pumped into the athletic programs.  I agree, it's not always an accurate representation.  

I provided some examples. I could easily offer a similar exception for every example that you believe to be the rule. Could also provide a list of affluent communities that are pathetic in football.

17 minutes ago, Setx fan said:

The defense should improve some since just about everybody returns. How much it improves will probably depend on the coaching 

If the defense doesn’t improve it will be regarded as a “failure of the little league coaches”. It is already obvious that the little league coaches in WV failed to establish a foundation of defensive skills in the players.

5 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

Definitely not solely on median income.  But it's a factor.. and one that's pretty frequent among football powerhouses.  There are very few consistently dominant high school football programs that don't have very much money in the community.  But on the other side of the argument....

Moneyball is a very real thing.

Programs with “money in the community” is different than “median income”. What do you suppose is the median income in Carthage, SOC, North Shore, Newton, Refugio, Franklin, etc?

6 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

The median household income in Brock, Texas, is approximately $95,876 to $104,443 per year, based on recent 2026 data.

As of 2026, the median household income in Onalaska, Texas, is approximately $51,912.

 

It's not going to be the same.

 

Can’t base everything solely on median income. They are likely to have a successful transition if they take the approach indicated. It will wipe Coldspring out and will likely put the hurt on Livingston as well. Lack of football at Onalaska is a reason why many kids go to CS and LV now.

3 hours ago, CDub86 said:

It will be interesting to see a different style of play here. One that fits our talent base better.

You believe “air raid” fits your talent base better? 
 

1. You have no talent base (at the moment makes Huntington look like Duncanville).

2. Whatever “talent” you do have does not include an abundance of skill players such as WRs, etc. 

I don’t see any way that a pass oriented offense can work. Maybe I will be proven wrong.

11 hours ago, CDub86 said:

Finally gonna have a passing game huh

From what I am told, that is their plan. Hopefully, Tarkington has a QB that sling it and WRs that can catch. An incomplete pass stops the clock. 

Hearing that Tarkington will be airing it out.

41 minutes ago, Reagan said:

When you start with the insults that’s proof you are losing the debate!  Keep um coming!

Not sure where the insults were but if you are trying to make the case that what Chad Taylor did at Liberty and Hardin is "average", I suspect most would agree that is "being silly". 

31 minutes ago, Reagan said:

It took him 13 years to get a positive win/loss record.  He's now 3 in the positive category.  Up until this year, he never had a winning record at the 3 schools he was at.  Average coach maybe.  Above average, well, at this point we'll agree to disagree.  

Got it. Liberty, Hardin, Tarkington and "barely has a winning record". In Hardin's case, the absolute best ever for over a half century. Those three schools have always been football powers. He should have done much better. No excuse to ever have a losing season at those schools. Any coach who doesn't put 10 win seasons up yearly at those schools is "average". 

You are making yourself look silly with each new comment. 

11 minutes ago, Reagan said:

When a coach has a losing record for the past 12 years and has one good year, the only way to say that's not a historical anomaly is to keep it up and prove that it wasn't just luck.  Left up to him!  

When you say "losing record", are you utilizing "math" or something else? He has more wins than losses, is 10-3 considered "good"? 8-3? 7-5? 7-4? for schools like Hardin, Liberty? Probably have a parade in the streets if Tarkington were able to win 4 games right now. 

45 minutes ago, Reagan said:

Fair enough.  Didn't remember what the 2025 season record was.  But, to prove anything we'll see what happens moving forward.  Was 2025 luck or does he have something going.  But, the fact still remains he had a losing record his previous 12 years.  We shall see.

Yes, because Hardin is a place to “win year in year out”.

1 hour ago, Reagan said:

Yes, and this coach has an overall losing record as a head coach.  Maybe if he would have stayed at Tarkington longer he could have turned things around.  

So, is he a good coach or bad coach? How has Liberty done since he left? 

10 minutes ago, Socrates said:

You seem to know a lot about the ins and outs of T-town. One former Tarkington head coach is the outgoing president of the THSCA and is one of the most successful and respected coaches in the profession, another is a current head coach at a successful 6A in the Houston area. Food for thought.

Another one just led Hardin (which has been similar to Tarkington” to their greatest season in school history.

26 minutes ago, 2wedge said:

Gotta ask, but mean no disrespect, why would a high caliber candidate be interested in the Tarkington job? Seems more likely to be a spot for someone needing a chance. 

You would need to ask him if he gets the job. All I can tell you right now is that he is a high caliber candidate with a plan and will be bringing quality assistants with him. Tarkington will be lucky to get him if he is chosen.

22 minutes ago, whodat22 said:

Outside of Dickinson, none of those teams are very competitive at the 6A level. Deer Park occasionally. 

Just FYI 25 results

brook 2-8

falls 5-6

lake 6-4

springs 8-3

dickinson 7-4

deer park 8-3

Last year in barbers hill 10-4. 

So as far as 6A goes, that is probably one of the least competitive districts outside the pasadena district or inner city. In my opinion BH will probably get 3rd place. 

And light years beyond what would be seen in WV district.

13 minutes ago, WhoDat said:

It would be bold, but it would be the right decision for Tarkington. You have a good coach that's done a lot for their program and would support the other programs as well. A new football coach/AD will most likely last two years max and back to ground zero. The new guy will be their 6th head football coach in 10 years. 

One of the two candidates is a high caliber candidate and will come in with eyes wide open and a good plan. Don’t know who the other one is. 
 

However, getting good coaches has not been the issue. The issue is admin running good coaches off.

5 hours ago, Setx fan said:

Clear Brook was 0-10. You sure there's no comparison? There's only a handful of really good 6A programs in the Houston area and they're not all in the same district. Playing Dickinson once and then playing Clear Lake, Clear Brook, and Clear Creek will not prepair you for D1 football. I could see if we were talking IMG Academy or something 

Hoping you are being silly at this point. I am sure everyone is getting a good laugh. 

43 minutes ago, Setx fan said:

Ok so they're in district 18 instead of district 19. How much better are Clear Lake, Clear Brook, and Clear Creek than Alvin and Pasadena Memorial? 

The discussion is about Warren, Kountze and Trinity. There is no comparison. Babin upgraded in competition along with every other aspect of education. Trying to say otherwise makes you a laughingstock. 
 

*** I doubt BH has little league coaches on the level of WV.