Snapshot day (realignment)/CUT OFF NUMBERS RELEASED

[Cougar14.2]

5 hours ago, Old Ape said:

The population that is growing in Crosby does not look like King or Atascocita. It looks like Channelview! 

King is 65% Hispanic. Crosby is about 50%. They’re filling up Barrett Station, not the $300k starter homes in Newport. The reason you don’t think King looks like that is because they have 3,600 kids and you don’t see any of them on the field. The closer our overall enrollment climbs to 3,000 the closer we get to the football playing demographic number of about 1,500 that we need to be competitive in 6A-D2. The completion of Sweetgrass Village and Barrett Crossing alone will push Crosby’s enrollment to about 2,800 once you include the new Newport homes. Going to suck for a while but Crosby is in an excellent position to be pretty competitive in 4-5 years. 

[bogey55]

3 hours ago, texaslonghorn14 said:

I tried to use geography for these four districts ( UIL may not)-  the first two districts have schools that could be interchanged.  

What are your thoughts?  

 

5A Division 1      “Traditional” Region 3 Teams

1^st District                                      2^nd District

West Brook                                   Lufkin

United                                           New Caney

PA Memorial                                 Porter

Sterling                                         Kingwood Park

Goose Creek                                Westfield

Galveston Ball                             Pasadena

La Porte                                       South Houston

Friendswood                                Galena Park

 

3^rd District                                      4^th District

Math & Science                          Angleton

Milby                                            Alvin Iowa Colony

Sharpstown                                  FB Dulles

Waltrip                                         Katy Freeman

Wisdom                                       Richmond Randle

Chavez                                         Richmond Tomas

Madison                                      SB North Brook

Westbury                                    SB Spring Woods

 

I'm pretty sure that New Caney West Fork is opting up to 5A-D1.

[Reagan]

10 minutes ago, bogey55 said:

I'm pretty sure that New Caney West Fork is opting up to 5A-D1.

If they do, they better find them a better coach!

[texaslonghorn14]

23 minutes ago, bogey55 said:

I'm pretty sure that New Caney West Fork is opting up to 5A-D1.

West Fork is not opting up 

[89Falcon]

2 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

Schools like SLC, Westlake, Vandergrift,  etc. get around the overall enrollment with 1) money and 2) they have Hispanic populations down in the teens. For instance Highland Park’s Hispanic population is only 6.1% so their football playing demographics are very close to 6A competitive levels for Texas. The higher the Hispanic population the more kids you need to be competitive in 6A unless you can mitigate it with money.
 

North Crowley has 3,049 kids but more importantly they have 1,706 black kids to go with solid coaching. That is an unreal amount for a metro school in Texas and similar to Summer Creek’s 1,722 but under Duncaville’s 1,888. With North Shore’s demographics they would suck at football if they didn’t have 4,000+ kids. If you dropped NS’ enrollment to Crosby’s and kept their same demographic makeup they would lose about 620 of their 1,038 black kids and not be near as competitive considering the talent pool where they get 95%+ of their starters would’ve cut in more than half. Desoto has a 5A enrollment but their school is 74% black so their talent pool is actually 1.5X that of North Shore. Very few schools the last 10-15 years have broken these rules. 
 

Cedar Hill is a prime example of what I’m talking about though. Stagnant to declining enrollment since their title game appearance in 2020 and are sub-.500 in the five years since. Not that having money or demographics mean everything but they’re hard facts to stray from when 6/8 teams playing for the 5A and 6A titles look exactly the same while the 5A-D1 state finals teams are extremely similar financially. Long story short, with Crosby’s demographics we’re going to need 2,800+ before we can consistently be competitive in 6A outside of the Houston and Pasadena districts. 

So, is the problem "enrollment numbers" or "too many Hispanic kids"? You specifically stated previously that the "enrollment gap was the problem". Now you are talking about "needing more black kids". What exactly is the limiting factor? 

[OlDawg]

3 hours ago, Austin1985 said:

Why do you have Gball and Fwood passing up schools to play in dist 9?  Also, based off Stepps first mock, why can't Dist 12 be in region 2 and that other more southern Austin District be in reg 3?

What schools are Ball & Friendswood passing up? They’re on the east side. Ball is an outlier somewhat similar to Lufkin. District 12, I just went with the last 2 years, and adjusted for enrollments. As others have mentioned, if HISD opts up their schools, there could be 4 districts in R3 without the current 12-5A. The news article I posted didn’t make it sound like they were opting up. But, I don’t know.

Stepp doesn’t have Galena Park opting up, and he still has Crosby in 5AD1. He also doesn’t have Iowa Colony in 5AD1. So, his is a little off as well.

We’re all just tinkering at this point. Something to do in between SC games.

[Austin1985]

.

[Austin1985]

11 minutes ago, OlDawg said:

What schools are Ball & Friendswood passing up? They’re on the east side. Ball is an outlier somewhat similar to Lufkin. District 12, I just went with the last 2 years, and adjusted for enrollments. As others have mentioned, if HISD opts up their schools, there could be 4 districts in R3 without the current 12-5A. The news article I posted didn’t make it sound like they were opting up. But, I don’t know.

Stepp doesn’t have Galena Park opting up, and he still has Crosby in 5AD1. He also doesn’t have Iowa Colony in 5AD1. So, his is a little off as well.

We’re all just tinkering at this point. Something to do in between SC games.

IC, South Houston and Angleton for starters.  Lamar Cons ISD and Fort Bend ISD is way closer than the Golden Triangle.  I'm surprised that you would put Ball and Fwood with us seeing that you're from LaPorte....

[OlDawg]

6 hours ago, texaslonghorn14 said:

I tried to use geography for these four districts ( UIL may not)-  the first two districts have schools that could be interchanged.  

What are your thoughts?  

 

5A Division 1      “Traditional” Region 3 Teams

1^st District                                      2^nd District

West Brook                                   Lufkin

United                                           New Caney

PA Memorial                                 Porter

Sterling                                         Kingwood Park

Goose Creek                                Westfield

Galveston Ball                             Pasadena

La Porte                                       South Houston

Friendswood                                Galena Park

 

3^rd District                                      4^th District

Math & Science                          Angleton

Milby                                            Alvin Iowa Colony

Sharpstown                                  FB Dulles

Waltrip                                         Katy Freeman

Wisdom                                       Richmond Randle

Chavez                                         Richmond Tomas

Madison                                      SB North Brook

Westbury                                    SB Spring Woods

 

Makes sense to me if the opt ups happen.

[DukeS]

3 hours ago, Reagan said:

If they do, they better find them a better coach!

They’ve only been playing varsity for two seasons and have their first senior class this year…

[Cougar14.2]

2 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

So, is the problem "enrollment numbers" or "too many Hispanic kids"? You specifically stated previously that the "enrollment gap was the problem". Now you are talking about "needing more black kids". What exactly is the limiting factor? 

Pretty sure I clearly laid it out why the enrollment gap was specifically THE issue. With Crosby’s demographics we need 2,800+ kids to put a product on the field remotely close athletically to the 6A schools in the area outside of Channelview, regardless of coaching. 

Last year Kingwood beat CE King by 1 point to finish in 4th place and of course playing out of that district made the regional final. Good program, good coach, lots of money and great ball-playing demographics but even at 2,800+ enrollment like Kingwood turned in on snapshot day, unless you have a super senior class like they did last year you’re going to struggle to finish higher than 5th in this area like they did this year even with all those advantages. They just can’t matchup athletically on a consistent basis with those larger enrollment schools. Crosby will be in the same situation until we have more football players on campus. 

[Old Ape]

5 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

King is 65% Hispanic. Crosby is about 50%. They’re filling up Barrett Station, not the $300k starter homes in Newport. The reason you don’t think King looks like that is because they have 3,600 kids and you don’t see any of them on the field. The closer our overall enrollment climbs to 3,000 the closer we get to the football playing demographic number of about 1,500 that we need to be competitive in 6A-D2. The completion of Sweetgrass Village and Barrett Crossing alone will push Crosby’s enrollment to about 2,800 once you include the new Newport homes. Going to suck for a while but Crosby is in an excellent position to be pretty competitive in 4-5 years. 

Lots of signs in Barrett station nowadays that ain’t written in English. 

[Reagan]

2 hours ago, DukeS said:

They’ve only been playing varsity for two seasons and have their first senior class this year…

Oh, I understand this.  But, what you need to understand is that this coach has been a head coach longer than the years you describe.  Let's look at the total picture:

DOUGALD McDOUGALD
13 years; 47-85-0; 6-1-0    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
2000  Huffman                        1-9-0
2001  Huffman                        4-6-0
2002  Huffman                        3-7-0
2003  Humble Kingwood         1-9-0
2004  Humble Kingwood         4-6-0
2005  Humble Kingwood         3-5-0
2006  Humble Kingwood         7-4-0 C
2007  Humble Kingwood         3-8-0 F
2008  Humble Kingwood         4-5-0 F
2009  Humble Kingwood         6-6-0 F
2010  Humble Kingwood         3-7-0 F
2011  Humble Kingwood         6-5-0 T
2024  New Caney West Fork  2-8-0

[Eagles12]

2 hours ago, Reagan said:

Oh, I understand this.  But, what you need to understand is that this coach has been a head coach longer than the years you describe.  Let's look at the total picture:

DOUGALD McDOUGALD
13 years; 47-85-0; 6-1-0    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
2000  Huffman                        1-9-0
2001  Huffman                        4-6-0
2002  Huffman                        3-7-0
2003  Humble Kingwood         1-9-0
2004  Humble Kingwood         4-6-0
2005  Humble Kingwood         3-5-0
2006  Humble Kingwood         7-4-0 C
2007  Humble Kingwood         3-8-0 F
2008  Humble Kingwood         4-5-0 F
2009  Humble Kingwood         6-6-0 F
2010  Humble Kingwood         3-7-0 F
2011  Humble Kingwood         6-5-0 T
2024  New Caney West Fork  2-8-0

He is retiring actually. 

 

 

[Reagan]

33 minutes ago, Eagles12 said:

He is retiring actually. 

 

 

The best thing for the West Fork program!

[badndn]

With this previous 5AD2 Dist 8 R3 prediction that was thrown out last week:

PNG

Ned

Dayton

Baytown Lee

Texas City

Santa Fe

Galena Park (opting up)

Houston Spring Woods (opting up)

I am now fearing PNG Ned stay R2

[89Falcon]

8 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

Pretty sure I clearly laid it out why the enrollment gap was specifically THE issue. With Crosby’s demographics we need 2,800+ kids to put a product on the field remotely close athletically to the 6A schools in the area outside of Channelview, regardless of coaching. 

Last year Kingwood beat CE King by 1 point to finish in 4th place and of course playing out of that district made the regional final. Good program, good coach, lots of money and great ball-playing demographics but even at 2,800+ enrollment like Kingwood turned in on snapshot day, unless you have a super senior class like they did last year you’re going to struggle to finish higher than 5th in this area like they did this year even with all those advantages. They just can’t matchup athletically on a consistent basis with those larger enrollment schools. Crosby will be in the same situation until we have more football players on campus. 

And yet, I gave you several examples of schools similar in size to Kingwood that have been successful and are successful on yearly basis. 

FYI, you had one post where you stated the problem was "enrollment gap" and then you had a post stating the problem was "too many Hispanic kids' and "not enough black kids". 

***Could easily provide a list of elite programs to illustrate the absurdity of your race-based logic. 

[aki1994]

4 hours ago, badndn said:

With this previous 5AD2 Dist 8 R3 prediction that was thrown out last week:

PNG

Ned

Dayton

Baytown Lee

Texas City

Santa Fe

Galena Park (opting up)

Houston Spring Woods (opting up)

I am now fearing PNG Ned stay R2

Region 3 lost at a minimum 5 schools to 5A D1 and 6A. I do not think it gained any from what I could see. I think we will be back in Region 3. 

[navydawg31]

4 hours ago, badndn said:

With this previous 5AD2 Dist 8 R3 prediction that was thrown out last week:

PNG

Ned

Dayton

Baytown Lee

Texas City

Santa Fe

Galena Park (opting up)

Houston Spring Woods (opting up)

I am now fearing PNG Ned stay R2

I’m trying to find it again it was someone’s prediction they put on X, but if you thought last 2 years was bad it really had us traveling had Nacogdoches in the district… 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

3 minutes ago, navydawg31 said:

I’m trying to find it again it was someone’s prediction they put on X, but if you thought last 2 years was bad it really had us traveling had Nacogdoches in the district… 

Yup! I heard about that on other sites as well. Population shrinkage is 🚮 for certain areas. 

[aki1994]

The more I look at it there is not a really good way to do 5A D2. Current districts 10 and 11 should be the new 7 and 8 in Region 2. Then move 7 and 8 to Region 3. 

[navydawg31]

31 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Yup! I heard about that on other sites as well. Population shrinkage is 🚮 for certain areas. 

It really is… and Golden Triangle 5A schools are on a Island… 

[Austin1985]

1 hour ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Yup! I heard about that on other sites as well. Population shrinkage is 🚮 for certain areas. 

Shrinkage and private/charter schools

[Cougar14.2]

5 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

And yet, I gave you several examples of schools similar in size to Kingwood that have been successful and are successful on yearly basis. 

FYI, you had one post where you stated the problem was "enrollment gap" and then you had a post stating the problem was "too many Hispanic kids' and "not enough black kids". 

***Could easily provide a list of elite programs to illustrate the absurdity of your race-based logic. 

And yet you just missed the whole point of me saying Crosby would be more competitive too once we had 2,800+ kids like Kingwood? I’ve stated the same thing every time and I’ve told you why those schools with smaller enrollments can be highly competitive. You have million dollar addresses like some of the Vandy kids or a large number of heavily recruited black kids like Longview does. If your school is 72% Hispanic like North Shore you better have a big enrollment to mitigate that or have a total football playing enrollment of about 1,500. 
 

The last decade of course we’ve had 20 6A state champions; Duncanville, North Shore, Westlake, Katy, Longview, Allen, Cy-Fair and Lake Travis. None of them go against what I’ve stated and none of the 4 state finalist playing in 6A do this year either. 

This fact that you had to throw Willis in there who 1) has 2,900 kids and growing fast and 2) was 12-20 their first three years in 6A until their enrollment grew and they could close the gap on schools like The Woodlands shows you can’t “give me a list” of elite 6A programs that go against what I said. You may not like what I’m saying but as far as the THSF 6A landscape goes the numbers are the numbers. 

[89Falcon]

4 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said:

And yet you just missed the whole point of me saying Crosby would be more competitive too once we had 2,800+ kids like Kingwood? I’ve stated the same thing every time and I’ve told you why those schools with smaller enrollments can be highly competitive. You have million dollar addresses like some of the Vandy kids or a large number of heavily recruited black kids like Longview does. If your school is 72% Hispanic like North Shore you better have a big enrollment to mitigate that or have a total football playing enrollment of about 1,500. 
 

The last decade of course we’ve had 20 6A state champions; Duncanville, North Shore, Westlake, Katy, Longview, Allen, Cy-Fair and Lake Travis. None of them go against what I’ve stated and none of the 4 state finalist playing in 6A do this year either. 

This fact that you had to throw Willis in there who 1) has 2,900 kids and growing fast and 2) was 12-20 their first three years in 6A until their enrollment grew and they could close the gap on schools like The Woodlands shows you can’t “give me a list” of elite 6A programs that go against what I said. You may not like what I’m saying but as far as the THSF 6A landscape goes the numbers are the numbers. 

To clarify, you are saying that in order to offset enrollment deficit you must have either “million dollar addresses” or “a lot of black kids”? Correct?