I think it will come down to the economy. Blame may be part of it.
There is a saying that all politics are local. That is probably not 100% true, but there is certainly a lot of truth in it.
An example is that Nancy Pelosi in some polls has shown to be the most unpopular politician in America, yet the Democrats had her as the Speaker. The country haters her but unlike the president, she is not on the national ballot. She is only from one district in San Francisco and she wins there by landslide. Politics is local.
The national news media can talk about good times or bad times but people tend to vote on what is happening in their area. Politics is local.
To expand on that, the Democrats are notorious for shooting themselves in the foot with their issues and campaign strategies. They choose hills to die on like taking away firearms, having schools teach and facilitate gender change without parental consent or knowledge, throwing the borders open, etc.Nationally some of that may play well but does it play well in southeast Texas or northwest Missouri?
So if the economy is down or there is some other major issue going on and the Democrats give up on their identity politics, they have a good shot at the presidency. Hopefully they will hold to their strategy like the movie Idiocracy. If it seems utterly ridiculous, do it!