State Champs & Tx Football Magazine predictions

[Guest Kelly Football]

State Champs & TX Football Magazine Predictions

Just thought it would be interesting to look at the Texas Football Magazine predections before the season and see how well the did in predicting the state champions. So here we go.

5A

SLC won it all, and were the preseason #2 team. So they did a good job of predicting them. Cedar Hill, the DII champion, wasn't even in the preseason top 25.

Interesting to note that Austin Westlake was #6 (lost in DI championship game) and Garland was #3 (Lost in DII Semifinals).

Not too bad at the predictions.

4A

In Division I, Alamo Heights, the preseason #14, defeated Copperas Cove, The preseason #3. So both of these teams were ranked to begin the season. In Div. II, Waco, the preseason #22, defeated Wolfforth Frenship, the #7 team. So every team to make it to the championship game was in the preseason top 25. Pretty accurate, if you think about it.

3A

#1 vs. #3 in the first round of the playoffs. Liberty Eylau won, and won state. If Gilmer wins, do they win state? I want to say yes, but I don't get a vote. But LE's opponent in the championship, Waco Robinson, wasn't even ranked. Neither was the DII state Champion, Liberty Hill. Their opponent Celina was #14. But two of the four teams in the championship games weren't ranked.

2A

The closest thing to a sure bet this year was Tatum. Preseason #1 and state champs. But Littlefield came out of nowhere to make the DI finals. In DII, Mart was ranked #16, but their opponent in the championship game wasn't ranked. Again, two of the four teams not ranked.

1A

Talk about predicting it. In preseason, 1) Windhorst, 2) Alto, 3) Chilton. Chilton beat Windhorst in the DII final, and Alto won the DI championship. Their opponent, McCamey, was #14 to start the season.

So what does this all mean? Well 14 of the 20 teams that played in the finals were ranked in the preseason poll. That's pretty impressive. In 1A, 2A, 3A, and 5A, at least one of the teams in the preaseason top 3 won a state championship. That's very impressive. Of course, some teams came out of "nowhere." There were some unranked teams that won it all, most notably Cedar Hill. But these preseason rankings were a really good indicator of how things would play out.

See if anybody else thinks the same way.

[tvc184]

Picking 14 of the 20 finalists is a 70% guess rating with 25 shots at getting it right. Then you have teams, as you mentioned, like SLC and Tatum. I would think that almost everyone could have made a reasonable pick to put them in at least the top 2 to start the season. When you have gimmes like that, it really puts Texas Football Magazine down to 60% in picks in races that were really up for grabs.

There are 4 regions in each classification. If the eventual state champ was in at least your pick in the top 4 (the 4 regional champs), then I would say that you made some good picks. If I counted correctly, 7 of the state finalist teams were picked by TFM in the top 4. That is roughly 33% of picking the state champions if you assume that only being in the top 4 is a good pick.

I think TFM only had one pick at preseason #1 that actually won state and that was Tatum. So now for actual preseason #1 picks, they are 5% at being right.

The bottom line, is it really that good of a job of picking if you basically allowed 25 shots at getting it right? I would think that a lot of people could pick a preseason top 25 and if a state finalist comes from anywhere on that list, it is called a good pick.

So next year, if someone asks you in preseason who is going to be the 4A champ, all you have to do is say, "well, give me 25 picks and I think I can do it". With that scenario, TFM scored a 70%. Take out Tatum and SLC and they are at 60%. If TFM was under no pass/no play, they would be on the bench.

[lamarex]

Excuse me , Wolforth and Waco did not play for the championship. That would have been Lamarque and Waco. If I recall , LaMarque was preseason rated at 10, so big picture is the same. 10 might not be accurate, but they were no higher.

[WOS87]

Dave Campbell's correctly predicted on average about one State Champion per year since the magazine started in 1960 and more recently they've been even more accurate than that with 18 of their preseason #1's winning a State Championship over the past 10 years.

2006 - Tatum (2A)

2005 - Southlake Carroll (5A)

2005 - Newton (2A)

2005 - Throckmorton (6-man)

2004 - Southlake Carroll (5A)

2004 - Ennis (4A)

2004 - Richland Springs (6-man)

2002 - Everman (3A)

2002 - Petrolia (1A)

2001 - Lufkin (5A)

2001 - Celina (2A)

2000 - Panther Creek (6-man)

1999 - Midland Lee (5A)

1999 - Stephenville (4A)

1998 - Omaha Pewitt (2A)

1998 - Tenaha (1A)

1997 - La Marque (4A)

1997 - Sealy (3A)