Snapshot day (realignment)

[purple reign]

On 11/11/2025 at 8:32 PM, AggiesAreWe said:

If 6A does come in at 2200, then I see 5A DI/DII cutoff somewhere around 1850.

Last realignment it was 1903. 6A cutoff was 2275.

They don't always go in the same direction. In 2022 the 5A-6a cutoff was 2225 and D1/D2 cutoff was1925. In 2024 the 5A/6A cutoff had risen to 2275, while the D1/D2 cutoff dropped to  1903. We'll know sometimes around Dec. 8.

[Rondo]

Anyone heard any updates/predictions?

[89Falcon]

1 hour ago, Bread said:

Anyone heard any updates/predictions?

Should start seeing some mock alignments next week 

[kirkwood29]

1 hour ago, 89Falcon said:

Should start seeing some mock alignments next week 

do you know when the cutoff numbers are released? 

[89Falcon]

1 hour ago, kirkwood29 said:

do you know when the cutoff numbers are released? 

I believe the first week of December. 

[navydawg31]

Last prediction I saw today was 2220+ for 6A

1300-2219 for 5A… 

[Cougar Den]

What did Padilla have for 3A 

[gogo173489]

10 hours ago, Cougar Den said:

What did Padilla have for 3A 

Probably 530 if I had to guess. That’s how lucky OF gets with every realignment for the last 8 years. I can usually tell you what the cutoff for 3A will be according to whatever number OF reports. It’s usually 1-3 kids above their number.  😂

[AverageJoe86]

Anyone have the Padilla numbers for all classifications? Curious if the actual numbers will get released this Friday?

[JSnipes]

7 minutes ago, AverageJoe86 said:

Anyone have the Padilla numbers for all classifications? Curious if the actual numbers will get released this Friday?

I did not see them myself, but I was told Padilla predicted 376-566 for 3A. Cutoff last time was 545. Most people seem to think the number is going to drop pretty drastically and he has it going up pretty drastically (if what I was told is correct). It will be interesting to see.

Maybe someone has seen the numbers and can put them out there. I think the last two realignments the numbers were released on December 8th, so maybe next Monday?

[kirkwood29]

5 minutes ago, JSnipes said:

I did not see them myself, but I was told Padilla predicted 376-566 for 3A. Cutoff last time was 545. Most people seem to think the number is going to drop pretty drastically and he has it going up pretty drastically (if what I was told is correct). It will be interesting to see.

Maybe someone has seen the numbers and can put them out there. I think the last two realignments the numbers were released on December 8th, so maybe next Monday?

i dont recall the number(s) ever dropping in my life time ?  have they dropped before 

[AverageJoe86]

49 minutes ago, JSnipes said:

I did not see them myself, but I was told Padilla predicted 376-566 for 3A. Cutoff last time was 545. Most people seem to think the number is going to drop pretty drastically and he has it going up pretty drastically (if what I was told is correct). It will be interesting to see.

Maybe someone has seen the numbers and can put them out there. I think the last two realignments the numbers were released on December 8th, so maybe next Monday?

Yeah, it seemed to be a pretty universal belief that the numbers will drop. Padilla is usually pretty spot on with his projections though so if he says it's going up then I'd believe him until the numbers actually come out.

[lionpride08]

6 hours ago, kirkwood29 said:

i dont recall the number(s) ever dropping in my life time ?  have they dropped before 

They stayed the same last realignment and will most likely drop. Over 11,000 less kids this go around and most of the drop is 4a and under. I have seen multiple schools lose 50+ kids in the last two years.

[kirkwood29]

2 hours ago, lionpride08 said:

They stayed the same last realignment and will most likely drop. Over 11,000 less kids this go around and most of the drop is 4a and under. I have seen multiple schools lose 50+ kids in the last two years.

I am with you, i just wonder why Mr Padilla being as resourceful and accurate as he is historically would base his projections on a slight rise in the cutoff versus a drop from last realignment. 

[lionpride08]

11 minutes ago, kirkwood29 said:

I am with you, i just wonder why Mr Padilla being as resourceful and accurate as he is historically would base his projections on a slight rise in the cutoff versus a drop from last realignment. 

Im notsure he has the resources that tell him the amount of students loss. But then again he could be completely right and we all wrong. I mean he has been doing this for years.

[Cougar Den]

On 12/2/2025 at 9:42 AM, kirkwood29 said:

i dont recall the number(s) ever dropping in my life time ?  have they dropped before 

The last few cutoff numbers  from 2018  

2018- 225-504

2020- 230-514

2022- 250-544

2024-254-544

[gogo173489]

On 12/3/2025 at 11:56 PM, Cougar Den said:

The last few cutoff numbers  from 2018  

2018- 225-504

2020- 230-514

2022- 250-544

2024-254-544

Hopefully we see something today

[89Falcon]

Saw all the Padilla predictions today. No surprises in 4A-D2. BH get ready to pack a lunch if Padilla is correct.

[CavemanFootballJunkie]

Dave Campbell's just posted some mock realignments.

 

[AverageJoe86]

47 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

Saw all the Padilla predictions today. No surprises in 4A-D2. BH get ready to pack a lunch if Padilla is correct.

What does he have for 4A D1?

[89Falcon]

12 minutes ago, AverageJoe86 said:

What does he have for 4A D1?

About the same except HJ back down. I was in a hurry when I looked through it. 

[AverageJoe86]

4 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

About the same except HJ back down. I was in a hurry when I looked through it. 

Got it. I meant the specific number. I'm really curious where the 4A-5A cutoff will be. My guess is somewhere between 1290 and 1310

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 hour ago, 89Falcon said:

Saw all the Padilla predictions today. No surprises in 4A-D2. BH get ready to pack a lunch if Padilla is correct.

Quick question: does he have Port Arthur Memorial in Region 2 or 3?