texbuzz

I think this point is way under appreciated.  In Safety and Leadership circles it is called “resiliency”. They call it “grit” in education circles.  
I think it takes a couple of experiences of fighting out of the pit.  Then the culture can start to assume the identity. And it works the other way.  A culture gets down or behind, a couple people cave, and now, that is who you are.  
This is an identity, for a group or team, that is established very early and very hard to shed. 

Crosby White FR - 0
Manvel B FR - 34
 
Crosby Red FR - 8
Manvel A FR - 35
 
Manvel is athletic. In case you didn’t know. 

HAHAHAHA!!!!!
*crickets from those PNG fans.

HAHAHAHA!!!!!
*crickets from those PNG fans.

after the New Caney game, I don't want to talk data.  That....just sucked.  

14.2, completely unrelated to the conversation you are having with his stats. 
In 2017 I think we have a better offense because we have been more balanced, less turnover prone, and more efficient at scoring Touchdowns. 
 
 
  2013 2017 PASS YARD/TD Ratio 90.97 101.78 RUSH YARD/TD Ratio 91.85 64.15 PASS YARD.INT Ratio 363.88 585.25 Rush % 61.44% 56.57% Pass % 38.56% 43.43% YPC 16.83 16.3 TOTAL YARD/TD Ratio 91.49 77.89 The passing efficiency in 2013 was marginally better than in 2017 but we have been substantially more efficient in 2017 overall and rushing the football.
I don't think a good argument can be made that 2013 is a better offense than 2017 largely due to 2013's overreliance on the run and lack of efficient scoring. 
 
I think the numbers bear out that we have been extremely efficient in scoring and have maintained a much better run/pass balance which makes the current team harder to gameplan for and overall better. 
EDIT beyond this point: 

Given we do not have good Defensive/Special Teams Stats yard efficiency seems to be the closest rating we can get to understanding the total teams make up. A Good defense gives you good field position, a good special teams unit gives you good field position and thus allows your offense to be more efficient. 
The Total Yards per TD shows me that Crosby gets the ball in good field position and scores often. 

 

I like your work and I prefer not to disagree with Crosby people but I still don’t get it? Try to forget the factors and do a basic drill. Using your theory Crosby could play WOS(54) ten times and win all ten by 3 points, then they could play North Shore(71) ten times, win nine by 3 points, lose once by 1 point and be a weaker team using your grading system which just isn’t right. 
Bottom four of the district were 10-30 in 2013, district’s bottom four will finish 8-27 this year because of some missed games but the bottle is still the bottom. Some of the names have just changed. If you’re factoring in Willis then LCM should hurt even more. 
What I’ve found from a little research is that you get super-penalized for first or second round losses which is why Crosby is getting more credit for beating Jasper this year than Nederland that year. If you used the numbers during the season, which I don’t think there’s a way to get, you get a more apples to apples comparison for how you’re scoring the teams. For instance, NC(234) who is currently second in our district is ranked 110 spots behind Tomball Memorial(124) who they lost to 58-46 and might not make the playoffs in their district. NC’s(6-2) schedule is nowhere near the strength of TM’s(5-3) and they’ve already lost to them which is currently reflected, however NC could beat Nederland or Central in the first round and end up ranked ahead of TM because TM will draw Cedar Park and lose in the first round which won’t be and isn’t reflected in your math trying to compare across years. 
End of the day just do the eye test if you actually saw those games back then. This year our second place team just got beat by 28. Our third place team lost by 28 to them and our fourth rep. who will probably end up finishing second lost to KP and had to squeak by Dayton on a dropped TD. BH was a salty 6-4 and stayed home with a good team that year. That far easier comment makes me wonder what you saw back then that I didn’t? All that being said the district went 3-1 in the opening round that year and I truly think we’ll go 3-1 again this year as long as BH is healthy going into their matchup with PNG. 
I’m not saying this team can’t end up as maybe even Crosby’s best team but those 2013 kids were the ones who started the hype train and hashtags. They just ran into #4 SC in district and #6 Elgin in the second round. I agree though, here’s to hoping Crosby outperforms any data gathered. 
 

The numbers, while not perfect, show Crosby facing a far easier schedule in 2013.  I don’t like the rankings a lot either but it is a crappy algorithm for everybody so that flattens the outliers a bit. I am an emotional fan and I put too much stock in feel or opinion, I am trying to post on the data.  
Factoring in the Willis, New Caney, Porter, King, Barbers Hill teams.....the 2013 schedule was easier.  
But, and everybody here knows this as much as I, numbers may not lie but they certainly don’t predict the future.  Every year in every division, there are teams with the numbers that go home early.  And a team that will out perform their data.  Hoping For Crosby. 

1780 
 
guys use this site for numbers 
 

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Uh.... never mind.

Padilla is putting that number at 1790 and Stepp has it at 1770.  Padilla has been the default for a lot of posters.  Wait and see at this point 

Part of it was our starting RB returned after missing the first 6 games with injury.

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I used the projection divisional breakdowns for this.  I probably spent stupid time doing this but if you want access to modify, just let me know.  I didn't create sheets for the divisions.  

Lol!  Let me know how much bank and when those checks start coming...
Great job Grad, btw.
 

I think somebody's been stealing my checks, then.

PNG is going to walk right through that game regardless.  

I spoke to somebody that should know.  There was some questions that needed to be cleared up about some kids.  "Need to make sure the number we provide is accurate."  The person was not interested in explaining any further.

PNG is going to walk right through that game regardless.  

PNG is going to walk right through that game regardless.  

I spoke to somebody that should know.  There was some questions that needed to be cleared up about some kids.  "Need to make sure the number we provide is accurate."  The person was not interested in explaining any further.

I haven't seen Crosby's yet. Anybody know ?

Chance is the man. He has for sure hands.

The fact Cedric Patterson is ranked that high with Sqwrl, Jaiden, Rooney and Chance Smith (My new favorite under-the-radar player) on the team is pretty impressive.  Except for the KP game (I wasn't there, just updated from wife and friends) a lot of these players are only in on 1/2 to 3/4 of the snaps.  

·        This will be long.
Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number.  The Crosby number is better than I thought.  
So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing.  Allowing too many points, mistakes.  They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs.  Hell, I feel that way most times also.  But they win.  So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way.  
With vague statistics!!
Look at the table below:
2014 schedule
PF
PA
Differential 
Maxpreps Rank
Team X
17
21
-4
8
Team X
33
14
19
146
Team X
34
10
24
382
Team X
0
23
-23
438
Team X
31
28
3
112
Team X
41
12
29
524
Team X
34
39
-5
77
Team X
60
14
46
298
Team X
48
31
17
161
Team X
49
21
28
127
Team X
35
21
13
227
I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. 
That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results.  
Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results:
2014 Crosby Schedule
PF
PA
Differential
MaxPreps Rank
Nederland
24
20
4
426
Angleton
38
20
18
145
Barbers Hill
30
7
23
363
Humble
17
10
7
422
Galena Park
62
10
52
851
Kingwood Park
24
14
10
287
Dayton
41
35
6
220
New Caney
24
0
24
491
Porter
39
13
26
747
C.E. King
21
28
-7
88
 
Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1.  Who had the better regular season?  Crosby.  Wins matter and Crosby had more of them.  But as you know, that isn't the whole story.  I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play.  I am a fan so I am not unbiased.  And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past.  So this is what I found.
Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number.  This tells more than just W/L.  Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number.  The lower power number, the better the team has performed.
2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs  Power number for both?  
2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17
2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25
And the score showed as much.  I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell.  I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective.  
I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com.  Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number.  Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number.  Here is the Manvel table.  
2017 Manvel Schedule
Manvel Score
Opponent Score
Differential 
Maxpreps Rank
Pearland
45
7
38
91
North Shore
24
21
3
81
FB Willowridge
70
14
56
625
Ball
35
7
28
190
FB Marshall
56
27
29
166
FB Elkins
62
7
55
398
Texas City
        Santa Fe
        Galena Park
        Manvel Averages
49
14
35
259
2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER #
  7
   
Whoa.  No other team gets close to a 7.  Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some.  But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo).  They deserve that number.
Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket.  
Consolidated has a tough schedule.  
2017 AM Consolidated Schedule
PF
PA
Differential 
Maxpreps Rank
Copperas Cove
34
14
20
265
Magnolia
52
47
5
133
Austin
66
0
66
558
College Park
19
13
6
375
Waco
35
31
4
138
Temple
20
28
-8
50
College Station
17
28
-11
63
Bryan
12
3
9
218
University
        Rudder
        Team AVG
32
21
11
225
WORTHLESS POWER #
    20
   
Next up is FB Marshall.  They took two bad losses that hurt their number.  
2017 FB Marshall Schedule
PF
PA
Differential 
Maxpreps Rank
Klein
7
27
-20
112
FB Hightower
20
7
13
300
Galena Park
57
7
50
733
FB Willowridge
77
20
57
625
Manvel
27
56
-29
3
Ball
55
7
48
229
FB Elkins
        Texas City
        Sante Fe
        Team AVG
41
21
20
334
WORTHLESS POWER #
    17
   
College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule.
2017  College StationSchedule
PF
PA
Differential 
Maxpreps Rank
Westlake
28
35
-7
4
Shoemaker
49
10
39
478
St. Pius
41
58
-17
16
Pflugerville
35
0
35
459
Bryan
35
34
1
218
University
62
14
48
772
A&M Consolidated
28
17
11
97
Rudder
49
14
35
560
Waco
        Temple
        Team AVG
41
23
18
326
 WORTHLESS POWER #
    18
   
2017  Huntsville Schedule
PF
PA
Differential
Maxpreps Rank
China Spring
17
14
3
130
Conroe
41
13
28
636
Tomball Memorial
24
21
3
186
Willis
49
7
42
386
Magnolia
48
24
24
133
Waller
45
7
38
561
Tomball
        Brenham
        Magnolia West
        Team AVG
37
14
23
339
WORTHLESS POWER #
    15
   
PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play.
2017  PNG Schedule
PF
PA
Differential
Maxpreps Rank
Sterling
55
13
42
234
Lumberton
42
0
42
507
Livingston
56
14
42
1048
Lee
59
21
38
865
Port Arthur Memorial
44
36
8
137
Vidor
42
14
28
269
Beaumont Central
        Ozen
        Nederland
        Team AVG
50
16
33
510
WORTHLESS POWER #
    15
   
I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up.  Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting.
2017 Hutto Schedule
PF
PA
Differential
Maxpreps Rank
Bryan
54
14
40
218
Georgetown
25
23
2
98
Pflugerville Connally
63
28
35
621
Elgin
56
14
42
615
Bastrop
55
13
42
554
East View
56
19
37
451
Rouse
        Cedar Park
        Cedar Creek
        Team AVG
52
19
33
426
 WORTHLESS POWER #
    13
   
And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number.  It is higher than I expected.  Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team.  Does it feel that way?  Just by gut feel?  Nope.  But the numbers say this is a better team:
2017 Crosby Schedule
Crosby Score
Opponent Score
Differential
Maxpreps Rank
Jasper
42
36
6
151
Barbers Hill
48
32
16
231
Porter
42
35
7
333
LCM
58
14
44
279
Kingwood Park
63
45
18
422
Caney Creek
57
17
40
690
Dayton
69
27
42
454
Splendora
        Humble
        New Caney
        2017 Season Avg
54
29
25
366
WORTHLESS POWER #
    15
   
And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance.  That is the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. 
 
I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.
 

wait...is that true?  Cleveland hasn't had a district win since 2014?