purple reign Posted November 21 Report Posted November 21 On 11/11/2025 at 8:32 PM, AggiesAreWe said: If 6A does come in at 2200, then I see 5A DI/DII cutoff somewhere around 1850. Last realignment it was 1903. 6A cutoff was 2275. They don't always go in the same direction. In 2022 the 5A-6a cutoff was 2225 and D1/D2 cutoff was1925. In 2024 the 5A/6A cutoff had risen to 2275, while the D1/D2 cutoff dropped to 1903. We'll know sometimes around Dec. 8. Quote
Bread Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Report Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Anyone heard any updates/predictions? Quote
89Falcon Posted Monday at 08:49 PM Report Posted Monday at 08:49 PM 1 hour ago, Bread said: Anyone heard any updates/predictions? Should start seeing some mock alignments next week Quote
kirkwood29 Posted Monday at 10:30 PM Report Posted Monday at 10:30 PM 1 hour ago, 89Falcon said: Should start seeing some mock alignments next week do you know when the cutoff numbers are released? Quote
89Falcon Posted Tuesday at 12:06 AM Report Posted Tuesday at 12:06 AM 1 hour ago, kirkwood29 said: do you know when the cutoff numbers are released? I believe the first week of December. Quote
navydawg31 Posted Tuesday at 04:33 AM Report Posted Tuesday at 04:33 AM Last prediction I saw today was 2220+ for 6A 1300-2219 for 5A… Quote
Cougar Den Posted Tuesday at 04:39 AM Report Posted Tuesday at 04:39 AM What did Padilla have for 3A Quote
gogo173489 Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Report Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM 10 hours ago, Cougar Den said: What did Padilla have for 3A Probably 530 if I had to guess. That’s how lucky OF gets with every realignment for the last 8 years. I can usually tell you what the cutoff for 3A will be according to whatever number OF reports. It’s usually 1-3 kids above their number. 😂 setxathlete14 1 Quote
AverageJoe86 Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Report Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Anyone have the Padilla numbers for all classifications? Curious if the actual numbers will get released this Friday? Quote
JSnipes Posted Tuesday at 03:35 PM Report Posted Tuesday at 03:35 PM 7 minutes ago, AverageJoe86 said: Anyone have the Padilla numbers for all classifications? Curious if the actual numbers will get released this Friday? I did not see them myself, but I was told Padilla predicted 376-566 for 3A. Cutoff last time was 545. Most people seem to think the number is going to drop pretty drastically and he has it going up pretty drastically (if what I was told is correct). It will be interesting to see. Maybe someone has seen the numbers and can put them out there. I think the last two realignments the numbers were released on December 8th, so maybe next Monday? Quote
kirkwood29 Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM Report Posted Tuesday at 03:42 PM 5 minutes ago, JSnipes said: I did not see them myself, but I was told Padilla predicted 376-566 for 3A. Cutoff last time was 545. Most people seem to think the number is going to drop pretty drastically and he has it going up pretty drastically (if what I was told is correct). It will be interesting to see. Maybe someone has seen the numbers and can put them out there. I think the last two realignments the numbers were released on December 8th, so maybe next Monday? i dont recall the number(s) ever dropping in my life time ? have they dropped before Quote
AverageJoe86 Posted Tuesday at 04:26 PM Report Posted Tuesday at 04:26 PM 49 minutes ago, JSnipes said: I did not see them myself, but I was told Padilla predicted 376-566 for 3A. Cutoff last time was 545. Most people seem to think the number is going to drop pretty drastically and he has it going up pretty drastically (if what I was told is correct). It will be interesting to see. Maybe someone has seen the numbers and can put them out there. I think the last two realignments the numbers were released on December 8th, so maybe next Monday? Yeah, it seemed to be a pretty universal belief that the numbers will drop. Padilla is usually pretty spot on with his projections though so if he says it's going up then I'd believe him until the numbers actually come out. Quote
lionpride08 Posted Tuesday at 10:17 PM Report Posted Tuesday at 10:17 PM 6 hours ago, kirkwood29 said: i dont recall the number(s) ever dropping in my life time ? have they dropped before They stayed the same last realignment and will most likely drop. Over 11,000 less kids this go around and most of the drop is 4a and under. I have seen multiple schools lose 50+ kids in the last two years. Quote
kirkwood29 Posted yesterday at 12:56 AM Report Posted yesterday at 12:56 AM 2 hours ago, lionpride08 said: They stayed the same last realignment and will most likely drop. Over 11,000 less kids this go around and most of the drop is 4a and under. I have seen multiple schools lose 50+ kids in the last two years. I am with you, i just wonder why Mr Padilla being as resourceful and accurate as he is historically would base his projections on a slight rise in the cutoff versus a drop from last realignment. Quote
lionpride08 Posted yesterday at 01:09 AM Report Posted yesterday at 01:09 AM 11 minutes ago, kirkwood29 said: I am with you, i just wonder why Mr Padilla being as resourceful and accurate as he is historically would base his projections on a slight rise in the cutoff versus a drop from last realignment. Im notsure he has the resources that tell him the amount of students loss. But then again he could be completely right and we all wrong. I mean he has been doing this for years. Quote
Cougar Den Posted 56 minutes ago Report Posted 56 minutes ago On 12/2/2025 at 9:42 AM, kirkwood29 said: i dont recall the number(s) ever dropping in my life time ? have they dropped before The last few cutoff numbers from 2018 2018- 225-504 2020- 230-514 2022- 250-544 2024-254-544 Quote
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