texbuzz

3 hours ago, biaplayer said:

PNG will be waiting for either one.

PNG is going to walk right through that game regardless.  

I bet he does such a great job because of all that sweet bank that moderating an internet forum $ends his way.   

1 hour ago, WOSgrad said:

Not yet.  I figure that the lack of response, which is unusual for Coach Riordan and others, can be chalked up to the fact that snapshot day was on a Friday when coaches were concentrating on far more pressing matters.

I spoke to somebody that should know.  There was some questions that needed to be cleared up about some kids.  "Need to make sure the number we provide is accurate."  The person was not interested in explaining any further.

Crosby 8th Grade "A" Team  - 40

Barbers Hill 8th "A"                 -14

On 10/23/2017 at 9:14 AM, biaplayer said:

they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand.

I think the rankings could be improved.  And according to the rankings that district is weak.  

Playoff wins are certainly the ultimate decider, in my opinion.  What are you saving for?  It's win or go home.  You win, you are better.  Period.  Every other excuse and reason and cop out doesn't matter to me. 

Better teams advance. 

But wait until the playoffs.....watch these losing fans say "you won this game BUT the refs, injuries...whatever."  All of it is just talk. 

Better teams advance.  

If my worthless power number is correct....Hutto should win the region (area..I can't remember what you call this group).

@baddog In many cars, the Driver side wiper hits the far left edge of the windshield where it meets the "A" pillar.  The Passenger side stops in the middle of the windshield before returning to the lowered position.

Total guess.

@biaplayer  I don't "think" PAM is or isn't anything.  This is just the data I have found. 

I didn't run the PAM numbers because they were not in the DII bracket of the Texasfootball.com playoff projections or I just didn't see it.  My sincerest apologies.  The projections are usually for subscribers and was available but now it is pulled down or behind a paywall.  That being said...Ask and ye shall receive:

2017 PA Memorial Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Beaumont Central	35	6	29	370
Ozen	41	0	41	774
Nederland	13	7	6	303
Lumberton	31	19	12	536
Port Neches Groves	36	44	-8	51
Livingston	61	20	41	1055
Lee
Vidor
2017 Season Avg	36	16	20	515
WORTHLESS POWER #			26

 

I called it a "Worthless Power #" because it is a backwards looking number and you never know what might happen.  And MaxPreps ranks can be wonky.  

PAM played a very good PNG team to a -8 differential.  And I think it was a competitive game.  This number gives credit to that.  PNG's higher rank and only losing by 8 points is given credit in the number.  

The fact is, PAM has a really weak schedule.  PNG does too.  But PNG is putting up 13 more points per game than PAM.  

·        This will be long.

Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number.  The Crosby number is better than I thought.  

So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing.  Allowing too many points, mistakes.  They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs.  Hell, I feel that way most times also.  But they win.  So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way.  

With vague statistics!!

Look at the table below:

2014 schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Team X	17	21	-4	8
Team X	33	14	19	146
Team X	34	10	24	382
Team X	0	23	-23	438
Team X	31	28	3	112
Team X	41	12	29	524
Team X	34	39	-5	77
Team X	60	14	46	298
Team X	48	31	17	161
Team X	49	21	28	127
Team X	35	21	13	227

I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. 

That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results.  

Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results:

2014 Crosby Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	MaxPreps Rank
Nederland	24	20	4	426
Angleton	38	20	18	145
Barbers Hill	30	7	23	363
Humble	17	10	7	422
Galena Park	62	10	52	851
Kingwood Park	24	14	10	287
Dayton	41	35	6	220
New Caney	24	0	24	491
Porter	39	13	26	747
C.E. King	21	28	-7	88

 

Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1.  Who had the better regular season?  Crosby.  Wins matter and Crosby had more of them.  But as you know, that isn't the whole story.  I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play.  I am a fan so I am not unbiased.  And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past.  So this is what I found.

Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number.  This tells more than just W/L.  Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number.  The lower power number, the better the team has performed.

2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs  Power number for both?  

2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17

2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25

And the score showed as much.  I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell.  I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective.  

I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com.  Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number.  Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number.  Here is the Manvel table.  

2017 Manvel Schedule	Manvel Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Pearland	45	7	38	91
North Shore	24	21	3	81
FB Willowridge	70	14	56	625
Ball	35	7	28	190
FB Marshall	56	27	29	166
FB Elkins	62	7	55	398
Texas City
Santa Fe
Galena Park
Manvel Averages	49	14	35	259
2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER #			7

 

Whoa.  No other team gets close to a 7.  Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some.  But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo).  They deserve that number.

Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket.  

Consolidated has a tough schedule.  

2017 AM Consolidated Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Copperas Cove	34	14	20	265
Magnolia	52	47	5	133
Austin	66	0	66	558
College Park	19	13	6	375
Waco	35	31	4	138
Temple	20	28	-8	50
College Station	17	28	-11	63
Bryan	12	3	9	218
University
Rudder
Team AVG	32	21	11	225
WORTHLESS POWER #			20

 

Next up is FB Marshall.  They took two bad losses that hurt their number.  

2017 FB Marshall Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Klein	7	27	-20	112
FB Hightower	20	7	13	300
Galena Park	57	7	50	733
FB Willowridge	77	20	57	625
Manvel	27	56	-29	3
Ball	55	7	48	229
FB Elkins
Texas City
Sante Fe
Team AVG	41	21	20	334
WORTHLESS POWER #			17

 

College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule.

2017  College StationSchedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Westlake	28	35	-7	4
Shoemaker	49	10	39	478
St. Pius	41	58	-17	16
Pflugerville	35	0	35	459
Bryan	35	34	1	218
University	62	14	48	772
A&M Consolidated	28	17	11	97
Rudder	49	14	35	560
Waco
Temple
Team AVG	41	23	18	326
WORTHLESS POWER #			18

 

2017  Huntsville Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
China Spring	17	14	3	130
Conroe	41	13	28	636
Tomball Memorial	24	21	3	186
Willis	49	7	42	386
Magnolia	48	24	24	133
Waller	45	7	38	561
Tomball
Brenham
Magnolia West
Team AVG	37	14	23	339
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play.

2017  PNG Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Sterling	55	13	42	234
Lumberton	42	0	42	507
Livingston	56	14	42	1048
Lee	59	21	38	865
Port Arthur Memorial	44	36	8	137
Vidor	42	14	28	269
Beaumont Central
Ozen
Nederland
Team AVG	50	16	33	510
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up.  Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting.

2017 Hutto Schedule	PF	PA	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Bryan	54	14	40	218
Georgetown	25	23	2	98
Pflugerville Connally	63	28	35	621
Elgin	56	14	42	615
Bastrop	55	13	42	554
East View	56	19	37	451
Rouse
Cedar Park
Cedar Creek
Team AVG	52	19	33	426
WORTHLESS POWER #			13

 

And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number.  It is higher than I expected.  Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team.  Does it feel that way?  Just by gut feel?  Nope.  But the numbers say this is a better team:

2017 Crosby Schedule	Crosby Score	Opponent Score	Differential	Maxpreps Rank
Jasper	42	36	6	151
Barbers Hill	48	32	16	231
Porter	42	35	7	333
LCM	58	14	44	279
Kingwood Park	63	45	18	422
Caney Creek	57	17	40	690
Dayton	69	27	42	454
Splendora
Humble
New Caney
2017 Season Avg	54	29	25	366
WORTHLESS POWER #			15

 

And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance.  That is the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. 

 

I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.

 

wait...is that true?  Cleveland hasn't had a district win since 2014?  

Can somebody break down the ruckus in the endzone after Rooney scored?  We had to leave right after.  The band left early to prep for UIL competition tomorrow.

The fact Cedric Patterson is ranked that high with Sqwrl, Jaiden, Rooney and Chance Smith (My new favorite under-the-radar player) on the team is pretty impressive.  Except for the KP game (I wasn't there, just updated from wife and friends) a lot of these players are only in on 1/2 to 3/4 of the snaps.  

On 10/17/2017 at 9:13 AM, bronco pride said:

4 years ago this thread would have been 10 pages long.  Oh well. I would like to see Santee along with a few others go both ways Friday. Maybe cut back on his carries and let him and a few other take out some frustration on defense. I know a lot of people think playing both ways is to much but it used to be a regular accurance even on our best teams. Heck I watched Cedar Park play in a state championship game with their starting rb who was also their starting lb. Just ask Crosby fans about him. He did it all year long. Guess what I'm saying is play your talent because even some high enrollment schools do it so we surely can.

Against Crosby, that same LB/RB played defense only the first quarter.  Once they were behind, they pulled him on 2nd and 3rd downs to get ready to play RB.  He ran all over that defense.  Just a power runner with good blocking in front of him.  That is a painful memory.

There is always the possibility I messed up some of my own math.  It should be pretty easy to count to 8 but I have been known to get it wrong.  

21-5A had one game this week that I guessed wrong but it was the most likely to split one way or the other.  Teams in the mix and my final prediction are below.

Porter (3-1) – Beat Dayton, did not expect that but it is not a shocker.  I don’t see it happening but they could win out with NC overlooking them.  Highly doubt it.  There is a last game of the season….

Dayton (2-3) – Lost to Porter.  Have a tough game with Crosby.  Then Kingwood Park.  Very easy to see both of those as losses.  This would put Dayton out of the playoff picture and the Caney Creek game could be a loss.  Dayton has to win out the rest of the way to get in.  This past week was probably the deal breaker for Dayton.

Barbers Hill (3-2) – Beat Splendora.  They should beat Humble.  I expect a loss to New Caney.  The last game of the season….

Kingwood Park (1-3) – Idle.  Very possible they win out.  Dayton is a winnable game.  They should go 4-0 to finish the year and get into the playoffs.

1.      Crosby (8-0)

2.      New Caney (7-1)

3.      Things break Down with 3 teams at 5-3.

If Porter wins the last game then this is pretty easy.  Both Porter and Kingwood Park are in with tie breakers over BH.  If Barbers Hill wins, it becomes a 3 way tie as far as who beat who.  DCTF is saying KP and Porter are in.  They probably know the tie breakers for the district.

Google “Texas football district tiebreakers” and see what madness you can find. 

There is a game every year that is a complete shocker.  I see some candidates on the horizon.  I will stop there.

58 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

That’s more true than you know.  I honestly think the outcome of a game is about 20% because of coaching.  Or less.  The rest is purely based on the talent of your team or the talent of the other team.

Sorry.  Pardon the bluntness but it has pretty much everything to do with the kids.

 

56 minutes ago, L-Train11 said:

I agree 110%. Poor coaching can hurt a team and good coaching can help a team, but in the end the players have to execute the gameplan no matter how good or bad it may be.

I am guilty of over analyzing the coaching/talent/game management and the effect on the outcomes of the games.

There is a point where it boils down to Talent V. Talent.  

My opinion is that coaching has a much greater impact than all these other things combined.  But it has to be taken in perspective.

Attitude, discipline, preparedness, and execution are established by the coaches and then demonstrated by the kids.  But even if this is done 100% correctly, teams will get beat by talent.  

How many teams have you seen with better talent that lose?

I think the stats are entered by the same people who enter the rosters and other info.  Some teams just don't stay up on them.

I have "admin" account for Crosby that was granted to me and it says I can change the roster and schedule.  I don't mess with it.  I just did the play by play at the Jasper and BH game and it rewarded me (gamification design for you Usability experts) with that "Admin" label.  

 

You guys dare me to add Hugh G. Butts to the roster?

I don't want the Crosby defense to play against Vidor's offense.  

Crosby has the right defensive gameplan for that Offense, but it is not their base and I don't know if they have the horses.

Crosby should score on the Vidor defense.  A lot.  But it will come at a physical cost.  Vidor makes teams earn their points.

The Vidor offense will win or lose that game. 

Their strength / Crosby weakness. 

Do not like.

(WHY AREN'T MORE FOOTBALL TEAMS RUNNING THAT MASTERPIECE OF BEAUTY AND VIOLENCE!!)

Dayton is going to need to wind 3 of the next 4 to get in.  BH has the tiebreaker.  If Dayton goes 2-2, they probably lost to K-Park or Porter.  Both K-Park and Porter can reasonable get to 5-3.  Tie breakers start to hurt Dayton.  

The numbers are against Dayton in my opinion.  I think they need 6 wins.  

If that is your gut feeling on it, Go Get Those 3 W's Dayton!!

That would be a pretty cool story.

I kinda admitted in my post that I didn't give this team enough credit before the season.  My error.  This O-line isn't great.  Better than average.

O-Line play had dumb holding penalties against better teams the first 2 games.  They have been better against inferior teams.  That is Average Play

77 is a first year starter.  He has played as if he had more experience.  That is better than I expected.  

O-line play is better than last year.  Last year was poor.  I expected this year to be average.  O-line is better than average.  They are not great.

Howard doesn't hold the ball 6 seconds.  If the time is there, he takes it and makes a decision.  If not, he gets the ball out.  Last year, 16 would drop back, read hot receiver, loop around perceived pressure, and his athleticism would take over most of the time. 

One of the reasons the O-Line looks so much better is how fast the ball gets out.  When they direct snap to 21 or he runs hard at the "A" gaps, the O-line is just in the way.  When 21 can attack so fast, and 11 can catch anything thrown to him, teams are less likely to send pressure.  They are sitting in their zones and responsibilities, trying to prevent getting burned.  They are still getting burned.

This receiver group is not the same.  CPIII is on fire.  Crosby hasn't faced a press corner that can compete physically.  When that happens, will 88, 10, and 9 be able to produce.  Nobody knows yet.  New Caney had a corner that could do that last year.  

Crosby graduated:

• Terryl Wiley (#9 fills this role but he isn't the threat Wiley was)
• Shammah Brooks (played corner some too)
• Jordan Hill 
• Trey Edwards

WR that moved up

• CPIII
• Rooney Woodard

 

@rykerx144  You took the time to post that my post was too long but you couldn't read the second line that gave your a very short summary?

I put that summary there for this exact reason.  For you.

If you have a burning desire to share your wit, try twitter.

 

 

I have posted a long diatribe that got folks riled up about this.  The quote thing isn't working or I am too dumb to figure it out.  I am copying and pasting manually.

     "I think the staff has done an amazing job since coming to the Hill." - Eagle82 

Yep, I agree with you.

     "The coach can't make these young men catch the ball when thrown to them.  The coach can NOT make these young men NOT hold or jump offsides." - Eagle 82.

Nope.  I do not agree.  Discipline (doing it the right way, over and over) and attitude (ownership of results) is a reflection of the culture.  The culture is established and/or maintained by the Head Coach.  A catchable ball that is dropped is a discipline problem.  Offside and false start penalties are examples of poor discipline.   Find the best coaches out there and see what they will not tolerate.  Undisciplined behavior loses football games that teams should win.  A team with a poor attitude shouldn't win any football games.

This BH team doesn't have an attitude problem that I can see.  I think they have a winning attitude.  This should come first.

I am not saying fire the guy.  That isn't at all what I mean.  It is intellectually dishonest to lay a breakdown of physical and mental discipline at the feet of the players.  More gassers won't fix it either.

Poor discipline at Barbers Hill lies at the feet of Tom Westerberg.  Do you think he would tell you anything different?

Didn't Barbers Hill win this game?

It is far too early for this conversation, but...at this point, I (and just me, I know the teams aren't) am looking at playoff placement.  I think Crosby and New Caney get in.  So is Crosby D1or D2?  Preference is D2.  That is answered by the attendance of the other two.  The only others with lower attendance are:

• Barbers Hill (2-2) - 1527
•  Dayton (2-2) - 1494
• Splendora (1-2) - 1106

From the comments of many here (you guys are solid, right?) Kingwood Park could possibly get into the mix here.  They bump Porter or BH.  Both scenario's keep Crosby at D2.  

Ok.  I am looking at it again.

Porter - They have 2 winnable games (Hum, Splen) on the schedule.  3 tough ones (Day, BH, NC).  They finish 4-4

Dayton - Beat Porter, Lose Crosby, Lose Kingwood Park, Beat Caney Creek.  They finish 4-4

Kingwood Park - Beat Caney Creek, Beat Dayton, (this is where I see the error of my 3-5 prediction), Beat Splendora, Beat Humble. They finish 5-3.

Barbers Hill - Beat Splendora, Beat Humble, Lose New Caney, Win Porter.  Finish 5-3.

Top 4 based on this scenario is -

1. Crosby (8-0)
2. New Caney (7-1)
3. Barbers Hill (5-3) 
4. Kingwood Park (5-3)

This....this is why this is so dumb to talk about this stuff halfway through the season.  Too many things to get sorted out.  And I can promise you I will be back for more. 

I gotta get back to work.

 

I think the Vidor team from last year would beat this years Crosby team.  This early in the season it is hard to say anything with authority but I don't think Vidor can score fast enough.  

I don't have the stats from last year but did Vidor graduate their 2 all-time leading rushers?  I was told that but that don't make it true.

Well, that will depends on the team for sure. 

Vidor from last year(and they aren't the same this year)?  Nope.  

A team like FB Marshall from last year? Nope.  

A few turnovers or penalties fall the Crosby way and they have a shot to go a little deeper.

Kingwood Park will lose to Dayton.