Darth Texas

I think Huntsville wins by more than 5, but this is an interesting test of where their defense is. They didn’t play great defense against PNG and they played bad defense against Montgomery. Montgomery had their linebackers guessing wrong all night. I don’t think Dayton’s offense is as powerful as Montgomery’s, but we’ll see if Huntsville has trouble with them. Dayton will score. Dayton’s defense is terrible and I don’t think they’ll stop Huntsville. Huntsville gets going early and takes out some frustrations: Huntsville 48-28.

I saw WF in person against Nederland last week. They’re definitely better than last year. I sat near the WF sideline. It really seems like they’re bought in to coach mcdougald’s system, working well together. Beating Nederland should go in their records as the first consequential district win in school history. Before last week they had only ever beaten Splendora in district. Now they’re in 3rd place. Hats off to them. As far as PNG vs WF, it will be PNG by quite a bit. WF has a solid defense, and the offense has moved the ball in fits and spurts. They don’t have a lot of size or strength. They didn’t have much success running the ball against Nederland. They were smart about their play calling and took advantage of a few short and long passes to keep the chains moving, but if Ned’s secondary had been a little better or if the WF qb/wrs had not played their best game in school history, they would have almost no offense. Hopefully PnG covers the pass better. Overall, WF won’t be able to run, PnG will get to the qb better than Ned, PnG’s secondary will cover, and, importantly, PnG’s o-line and RBs will have control of the game from the get-go. PNG 45-14.

I thought he had a college job lined up but it fell through. And, it was probably time for him to leave. At a certain point, you’ve probably done all you can do at a program and it’s best to leave before you get stale. And the team gets a chance to see what a new coach can do.

Lumberton

La Porte

This is a bad matchup for the Bulldogs. Weakest part of Nederland’s defense is the secondary, and the strongest part of Lake Creek’s offense is the passing game.

Nederland’s d line is getting torched right now. WF qb better than I thought. He might be having a career night.

Montgomery RB is a problem

Nederland needs smarter plays. That short pass for a first down was perfect.

That’s no good

Is qb out too?

West Fork defense looking pretty good.

By “afford” I meant the idea of doing their own broadcasts, to the extent money could be cited as a factor.

On the victory+ broadcast, it showed pretty clearly that his lower leg got pinned vertically in a pile, and then he got pushed back - his knee went with his body, his shin stayed put. Looked bad. It could be just a sprain but I also wouldn’t be surprised by him missing a lot of time. That would be a big loss, to him and the team. But we haven’t heard anything definitive from anyone.

And it doesn’t look like it’s on texanlive. I wish the Montgomery schools would start doing broadcasts or join TexanLive. It’s not like they’d get fewer attendees and they can certainly afford it.

Is Dayton not doing their normal YouTube broadcast?

I wouldn’t be surprised by a 28-0 first quarter, with 2nd string taking over the rest of the game. End up with a quiet 42-7 or something like that. Splendora seems to be even worse than last year. I hope Tyson Henry and some of the other banged up guys don’t even see the field. I might go watch Nederland this week, tbh.

That’s awful

Need to give a lot of props to Huntsville. I thought we would struggle with their run game, but grossly underestimated how good they actually are. My assessment of Huntsville after Cedar Park was they're really fast but blocking and tackling are far below the standard Southern established. I think I was right about that three weeks ago, but both improved very, very much since Cedar Park. I'm convinced that Huntsville is better than they were in the last two years, and are a legit danger to everyone in Region 3. I was extremely pleased with PNG's turnaround in the 2nd half, and I think the defense learned vital lessons about how to deal with such a competent, athletic offense. But, I hope we look at this as a close win. The most important play of the game was the missed field goal. Some could argue that Hville should have gone for it on 4th and 1, but I think going for the FG was the right decision. You have a chance to maybe get stuffed on 4th and give momentum back to PNG, or you have a chance to get 3 points and make it where even if PNG scored 14 unanswered they would have only tied the game. So, Moebes was right to take the field goal. But, with the missed field goal, it changed the entire schedule for Hville when PNG got to 24. Instead of being tied, they were playing from behind. Then, when we scored another TD they weren't simply down by 7, they were down by 10 (actually down by 11, but I'm discounting the safety for this analysis). Their margin of error got smaller, real fast. My point is, PNG should think of this game as we won by a field goal (second year in a row that this game came down largely to a missed field goal). HVille could have been so much more patient for a lot longer in the game with those three points on the board. This game was also a testament to the importance of keeping the ball out of your opponent's hands. PNG dominated time of possession in the 2nd half, especially in the 3rd quarter. We held the ball for long drives, played with patience, and limited their opportunities. In the end, the whole second half turned on about four or five total plays where we stuffed them or got a sack. If we had given them more opportunities, who knows what would have happened? In other words, our defensive success in the 2nd half had as much to do with our adjustments as it did with not giving them more plays. And, Hville was figuring it out -- That TD at the end wasn't a fluke. They hadn't tried that misdirect the whole 2nd half. The problem with that play is our whole defense has to commit to charging the running lane to stop the play if they run to the far side -- When they reverse the field, we don't have anyone there. If they had more chances to try that, it's a different ball game. Summary: Ecstatic with PNG's defense, play calling, and overall level of play. But after last week I consider Huntsville an extremely reasonable contender for regional champion. They are MUCH better than last year. If it works out that PNG and Huntsville meet in the playoffs it's a 50/50 game and Hville has all the weapons to be terrifying. The only big weakness I see right now is the Huntsville tackling. I'm still not sure how much of our run success was due to us being good or Hville still needing work in the tackling game. If that improves, watch out. Good game, Hornets.

Marshall doesn’t seem to be as good this year.

Ahh - I was thrown trying to think of a football reference . Thanks!

What’s Whitesnake?

Hardin wins by at least 40.

Dayton doesn’t stop much, and Lake Creek doesn’t stop much. Both can score. This one is going to be high scoring. I’m tempted to go with LC as a hipster pick.

West Fork: No, and that analysis is pretty simple. They aren’t as good as I thought they would be this year, and are actually much worse. Nederland: No, but it’s MCM. In 2022 a PNG team that later went to state had to throw a last minute TD to win against a terrible Nederland team. This year the bulldogs look weak at a bunch of levels but they were able to hang on in a shootout against a Dayton team that I think is at least slightly better than them on most days. I think we’re better, but we were better last year and they still managed to be better than us the night we played. Unless they start really getting dominated in the next two weeks, call that one a 50/50 and prepare like you’re the underdog. Dayton: Trap game. If we go into the last week at home with no losses and everyone assuming we’re going to be undefeated district champs, and looking past the Broncos into the playoffs, they have the offense to get us into a foot race. Their defense is bad, but they can put up points. So, no - I don’t think those three will beat us, but we have to just take it one game at a time. We’re beatable, and I hope we don’t let one of them prove it.