HARDIN-JEFFERSON vs. NAVASOTA BROADCASTHJ ADVANCES 68-64!

Lazeek · February 27, 2012

The #4 3A State Ranked HJ Hawks will take on the Navasota Rattlers on Tuesday night at Willis High School. HJ (38-1) defeated Sealy in the Area Round 78-64. HJ is the Co-District Champ from 21-3A. Navasota (-) defeated Hamshire-Fannett in the Area Round by a score of 80-63. Navasota is the Champion of 23-3A. This will be the 5th time in 6 years that Navasota and Hardin-Jefferson have met in the playoffs. HJ has won the previous 4 meetings.

Broadcast will start at 6:50pm from Willis High School Gymnasium.

[i][b]We did have some broadcast difficulties two years ago from this same gym. Hoping for no problems!!!![/b][/i]

Click on the link below to listen to LIVE PLAYOFF action with Rob Lietzke and Robb Starr:

http://www.setxsports.com/index.php/broadcasts/live-games/74-hardin-jefferson-basketball/1371-hardin-jefferson-vs-kountze-basketball-fri-7-pm

Hardin-Jefferson Basketball Sponsors:

Raquel West Attorney at Law
Mike Roby Insurance
Star Graphics
Liberty Golf Cars
Absolute Pipeline and Construction
Saladin Pump and Equipment Company
CDM Advisors with UBS Financial Services

stevenash · February 27, 2012

Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me.

AggiesAreWe · February 27, 2012

LAZEEK, I am going to be shocked if you are able to get a broadcast out of that gym.

Good luck buddy!!

Lazeek · February 27, 2012

[quote name="AggiesAreWe" post="1186455" timestamp="1330314090"]
LAZEEK, I am going to be shocked if you are able to get a broadcast out of that gym.

Good luck buddy!!
[/quote]

Hope you are wrong!!!

AggiesAreWe · February 27, 2012

[quote name="LAZEEK" post="1186458" timestamp="1330314275"]
[quote author=AggiesAreWe link=topic=96703.msg1186455#msg1186455 date=1330314090]
LAZEEK, I am going to be shocked if you are able to get a broadcast out of that gym.

Good luck buddy!!
[/quote]

Hope you are wrong!!!
[/quote]

Me too. But you do remember the last time we were there? >:(

Lazeek · February 27, 2012

[quote name="AggiesAreWe" post="1186460" timestamp="1330314353"]
[quote author=LAZEEK link=topic=96703.msg1186458#msg1186458 date=1330314275]
[quote author=AggiesAreWe link=topic=96703.msg1186455#msg1186455 date=1330314090]
LAZEEK, I am going to be shocked if you are able to get a broadcast out of that gym.

Good luck buddy!!
[/quote]

Hope you are wrong!!!
[/quote]

Me too. But you do remember the last time we were there? >:(
[/quote]

I do. Hoping that Verizon and/or Virgin Wireless towers have been improved since then. I have a good feeling!!

Wildcatter · February 27, 2012

Good luck to the hawks

BMTSoulja1 · February 27, 2012

Can we keep 'that stat' updated?

FanintheStands · February 27, 2012

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186452" timestamp="1330314014"]
Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me.
[/quote]Why? They have no barren on the outcome of this game.... unless you believe in Karma.

If you've flipped a coin 4 times and they've all come up heads, the chances of the next coin toss coming up heads is still 50%.

stevenash · February 27, 2012

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186596" timestamp="1330354195"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186452#msg1186452 date=1330314014]
Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me.
[/quote]Why? They have no barren on the outcome of this game.... unless you believe in Karma.

If you've flipped a coin 4 times and they've all come up heads, the chances of the next coin toss coming up heads is still 50%.
[/quote]

I am fully conversant with your statistical viewpoint. However, there is a lot more involved here than stats and there are a lot more variables in this game than there are in a coin flip. It might be interesting to look at a sample of college or pro scores, (where that information is readily available) and see just how often a team beats an opponent four or five consecutive times.

FanintheStands · February 27, 2012

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186619" timestamp="1330355411"]
[quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96703.msg1186596#msg1186596 date=1330354195]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186452#msg1186452 date=1330314014]
Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me.
[/quote]Why? They have no barren on the outcome of this game.... unless you believe in Karma.

If you've flipped a coin 4 times and they've all come up heads, the chances of the next coin toss coming up heads is still 50%.
[/quote]

I am fully conversant with your statistical viewpoint. However, there is a lot more involved here than stats and there are a lot more variables in this game than there are in a coin flip. It might be interesting to look at a sample of college or pro scores, (where that information is readily available) [b]and see just how often a team beats an opponent four or five consecutive times[/b].
[/quote]... and this last statement shows me you may not be conversant with my statistical viewpoint.

Look up pro teams that have beaten another team 4 times in a row... and then see how often the team with the streak wins the 5th game. I would bet you it is greater than 50%, not less.

Or better yet, look at best of 7 game series, where one team has one 3 in a row and leads the series 3 games to 0. What is the record of the leading team in the 4th game of the series. I would bet you it is greater than 50%.

stevenash · February 27, 2012

I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row. As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet. Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip. If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups. Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0. No other instance of 4 consecutive wins.

stevenash · February 27, 2012

Fooling around on the internet, I was able to pull up the Celtics 2009-2010 schedule. They had 13 series that involved either 3 or 4 games with the same opponent. Within those 13 series, they had 1 3 game sweep, one 4 game sweep and were swept in four once. All other series involved wins/losses for both teams involved.

FanintheStands · February 27, 2012

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186719" timestamp="1330361854"]
I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row. As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet. Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip. If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups. Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0. No other instance of 4 consecutive wins.
[/quote]Steve,

If you use your knowledge of statistical coin flipping to demonstrate your ability to invest in other people's money, then remind me never to invest with you! ;)

Regarding the 4-0 runs, you are still going about it the wrong way. Its not, "what are the odds of beating someone 5 times in a row". Its "what are the odds of, having beat your opponent 4 times in a row, that you beat them the next time you play".

sleepy · February 27, 2012

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186772" timestamp="1330366330"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186719#msg1186719 date=1330361854]
I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row. As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet. Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip. If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups. Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0. No other instance of 4 consecutive wins.
[/quote]Steve,

If you use your knowledge of statistical coin flipping to demonstrate your ability to invest in other people's money, then remind me never to invest with you! ;)

Regarding the 4-0 runs, you are still going about it the wrong way. Its not, "what are the odds of beating someone 5 times in a row". Its "what are the odds of, having beat your opponent 4 times in a row, that you beat them the next time you play".
[/quote]

::)

stevenash · February 27, 2012

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186772" timestamp="1330366330"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186719#msg1186719 date=1330361854]
I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row. As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet. Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip. If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups. Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0. No other instance of 4 consecutive wins.
[/quote]Steve,

If you use your knowledge of statistical coin flipping to demonstrate your ability to invest in other people's money, then remind me never to invest with you! ;)

Regarding the 4-0 runs, you are still going about it the wrong way. Its not, "what are the odds of beating someone 5 times in a row". Its "what are the odds of, having beat your opponent 4 times in a row, that you beat them the next time you play".
[/quote

You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me. My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory. I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand. At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side. Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned. I hope my concern is misplaced. As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters.

FanintheStands · February 27, 2012

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186794" timestamp="1330368639"]
You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me. My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory. I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand. At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side. Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned. I hope my concern is misplaced. As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters.
[/quote]have you thought about the weight on Navasota's shoulder's if and when HJ takes the lead? "Here we go again".

You and I both know that Sutherland won't let them get complacent. From what I understand, the Silsbee defeat removed all threat of that happening (I think you have the same source as I do) again.

Second thing, I only know of 1 player that was involved in only 1 of those Navasota/HJ games. I think the game is going to be no different than if they'd split the last 4 games. Of course, there's no proof of that.

Finally, you REALLY don't have to defend your investment strategy and success. I nhope you know that.

stevenash · February 27, 2012

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186812" timestamp="1330369829"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186794#msg1186794 date=1330368639]
You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me. My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory. I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand. At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side. Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned. I hope my concern is misplaced. As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters.
[/quote]have you thought about the weight on Navasota's shoulder's if and when HJ takes the lead? "Here we go again".

You and I both know that Sutherland won't let them get complacent. From what I understand, the Silsbee defeat removed all threat of that happening (I think you have the same source as I do) again.

Second thing, I only know of 1 player that was involved in only 1 of those Navasota/HJ games. I think the game is going to be no different than if they'd split the last 4 games. Of course, there's no proof of that.

Finally, you REALLY don't have to defend your investment strategy and success. I nhope you know that.
[/quote]

Sure I have thought about it. It would probably have the same effect as if Navasota goes on a run like Silsbee did against HJ. My intended point in all of this is that there are many factors within the matchup that simply can't be quantified. Yes, you and I can say/hope that Sutherland doesnt let them be complacent but I have seen them be that way several times this year. You and I can't do much about Navasota being a little more motivated having lost a very big game to the same team 4 times. Just for fun, you might enjoy this statistic that I maintain myself. I price 1000 stocks every day and look at their performance over a 4 week period( I have a lot of samples) After a 4 week period has ended, I list the stocks that outperformed the market 4 times, 3 times, 2 times, 1 time, and zero times. The best subsequent performers (as a group) is the zero time outperformers. I am not a statistical genius but in this business, you have "the second differential"," reversion to the mean", "standard deviation" and I can't remember how many others thrown at you on a regular basis. If you are going to comprehend what you are being told, you have to become, at least, a little familiar with that stuff.

PoppaBearstarr · February 27, 2012

[quote name="BMTSoulja1" post="1186589" timestamp="1330353814"]
Can we keep 'that stat' updated?
[/quote]

You know we will, [glow=red,2,300]just for you[/glow]....lol

FanintheStands · February 27, 2012

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186838" timestamp="1330371103"]
[quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96703.msg1186812#msg1186812 date=1330369829]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186794#msg1186794 date=1330368639]
You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me. My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory. I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand. At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side. Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned. I hope my concern is misplaced. As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters.
[/quote]have you thought about the weight on Navasota's shoulder's if and when HJ takes the lead? "Here we go again".

You and I both know that Sutherland won't let them get complacent. From what I understand, the Silsbee defeat removed all threat of that happening (I think you have the same source as I do) again.

Second thing, I only know of 1 player that was involved in only 1 of those Navasota/HJ games. I think the game is going to be no different than if they'd split the last 4 games. Of course, there's no proof of that.

Finally, you REALLY don't have to defend your investment strategy and success. I nhope you know that.
[/quote]

Sure I have thought about it. It would probably have the same effect as if Navasota goes on a run like Silsbee did against HJ. My intended point in all of this is that there are many factors within the matchup that simply can't be quantified. Yes, you and I can say/hope that Sutherland doesnt let them be complacent but I have seen them be that way several times this year. You and I can't do much about Navasota being a little more motivated having lost a very big game to the same team 4 times. Just for fun, you might enjoy this statistic that I maintain myself. I price 1000 stocks every day and look at their performance over a 4 week period( I have a lot of samples) After a 4 week period has ended, I list the stocks that outperformed the market 4 times, 3 times, 2 times, 1 time, and zero times. The best subsequent performers (as a group) is the zero time outperformers. I am not a statistical genius but in this business, you have "the second differential"," reversion to the mean", "standard deviation" and I can't remember how many others thrown at you on a regular basis. If you are going to comprehend what you are being told, you have to become, at least, a little familiar with that stuff.
[/quote]That sounds familiar to the "Dogs of the Dow" theory.

What goes up must (usually) come down and vice versa. Hence, the ones that have beaten it 4 times are headed for the anticipated "down", while the zero performers are ready for their rebound.

But, thank goodness basketball games aren't determined using stock investing statistical analysis! ;)

BTW, do you see any correlation between the two? If so, that would mean that Yates is due for a downtown that would make the Dot.Com Bubble seem like a day at the park!

stevenash · February 28, 2012

If you believe in the "what goes up must go down theory" do you believe it only in the case of stocks or as a general principal? If a team wins 4 in a row( the up) while another loses 4 in a row,(the down) is there a chance that the up/down relationship will change or is it a permanent trend? If Devante Johnson hits his first four 3 pointers, is he more likely to make or miss his next one?

I agree that basketball game outcomes aren't determined by stock investing statistical analysis and I am sure you will agree they also have no relevance to coin flips.

Do I believe that Yates is due for a downturn? If you mean this week, or this season, probably not. If the time frame is long enough, my guess is they will experience one relative to their current status.

FanintheStands · February 28, 2012

[quote name="stevenash" post="1187001" timestamp="1330388622"]
If you believe in the "what goes up must go down theory" do you believe it only in the case of stocks or as a general principal? If a team wins 4 in a row( the up) while another loses 4 in a row,(the down) is there a chance that the up/down relationship will change or is it a permanent trend? If Devante Johnson hits his first four 3 pointers, is he more likely to make or miss his next one?[/quote]Where did I say I believe in the "what goes up must come down" theory?

As far as what are the odds of a team beating another after 4 consecutive wins against them? I would say they are exactly the same as normal... in other words, the "consecutive win streak" is not a factor. If Devonte hits his first four 3-pointers in the row, and you ask me what are his odd of missing his next shot? I'd see its roughly the same as his regular shot percentage, or maybe even a little lower chance of missing it. But that is because he has more confidence in his shot, which is one of the determining factors in making shots.

[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]
I agree that basketball game outcomes aren't determined by stock investing statistical analysis and I am sure you will agree they also have no relevance to coin flips.[/quote]Sure, but coin flips coincide more. In other words, they follow a more parallel pattern. Investing analysis is not the same.

For instance, in coin tosses, just like basketball games, there is a winner and a loser. In stocks, there are many winners. Sometimes, nearly all of them are winners. Others, for instance, the first day of the stock market after 9/11, nearly all of them were losers. In other words, in Stocks, for every winner, there is not necessarily a loser (and vice versa).

[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]Do I believe that Yates is due for a downturn? If you mean this week, or this season, probably not. If the time frame is long enough, my guess is they will experience one relative to their current status.
[/quote]So, you guess that Yates will get to where they will lose every game for several years. I don't know, but I could tell you that they have the same chance as any other school. In other words, this run of theirs over the last few years does not make them MORE LIKELY to have a losing streak that compares to their winning streak.

BTW, is it just me, or does it seem like every time I go back-and-forth with you I lose karma points? :o

BigDaddy00 · February 28, 2012

Longest argument I've seen im a while guys ;)

stevenash · February 28, 2012

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1187096" timestamp="1330394899"]
[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]
If you believe in the "what goes up must go down theory" do you believe it only in the case of stocks or as a general principal? If a team wins 4 in a row( the up) while another loses 4 in a row,(the down) is there a chance that the up/down relationship will change or is it a permanent trend? If Devante Johnson hits his first four 3 pointers, is he more likely to make or miss his next one?[/quote]Where did I say I believe in the "what goes up must come down" theory?

As far as what are the odds of a team beating another after 4 consecutive wins against them? I would say they are exactly the same as normal... in other words, the "consecutive win streak" is not a factor. If Devonte hits his first four 3-pointers in the row, and you ask me what are his odd of missing his next shot? I'd see its roughly the same as his regular shot percentage, or maybe even a little lower chance of missing it. But that is because he has more confidence in his shot, which is one of the determining factors in making shots.

[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]
I agree that basketball game outcomes aren't determined by stock investing statistical analysis and I am sure you will agree they also have no relevance to coin flips.[/quote]Sure, but coin flips coincide more. In other words, they follow a more parallel pattern. Investing analysis is not the same.

For instance, in coin tosses, just like basketball games, there is a winner and a loser. In stocks, there are many winners. Sometimes, nearly all of them are winners. Others, for instance, the first day of the stock market after 9/11, nearly all of them were losers. In other words, in Stocks, for every winner, there is not necessarily a loser (and vice versa).

[quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]Do I believe that Yates is due for a downturn? If you mean this week, or this season, probably not. If the time frame is long enough, my guess is they will experience one relative to their current status.
[/quote]So, you guess that Yates will get to where they will lose every game for several years. I don't know, but I could tell you that they have the same chance as any other school. In other words, this run of theirs over the last few years does not make them MORE LIKELY to have a losing streak that compares to their winning streak.

BTW, is it just me, or does it seem like every time I go back-and-forth with you I lose karma points? :o
[/quote]

It must be just you. I have never given you karma in either direction. I didnt say you believed in the up/down theory but asked because you mentioned it.

We will just have to agree to disagree on the relevance of the coin flip. There are no human variable in a coin flip( unless you want to claim the flip itself is a variable) and there are a ton of them in a basketball game.

Hmmm- I dont believe I stated (or, for that matter, gave you any reason to believe) that I thought Yates will get to where they lose every game. Possibly a little hyperbole there? My statement, which I will stand by, suggests that their relative performance at some point in the future, will not be as good as it is now. This happens all the time aka Sugarland Willowridge, Ozen, etc. etc.

In regard to Devonte, I believe the chances for him missing his 5th three point attempt is greater for a number of reasons. 1. His legs will have a little less bounce in them 2. The defense will be trying a little harder to contest his shot 3. Confidence can work for or against a shooter I am pretty close to the HJ all time career three point shooting leader and over the years I developed a pretty good feel/understanding about the pluses and minuses regarding confidence. I had a very successful coach who now happens to be the head of the UIL remark to me that 3 point shooting percentage almost always declines as the number of attempts increases. I didnt do any checking on that. I assumed he knew what he was talking about.

stevenash · February 28, 2012

[quote name="BigDaddy00" post="1187113" timestamp="1330395846"]
Longest argument I've seen im a while guys ;)
[/quote]

What is wrong with a couple of guys exchanging viewpoints in detail?

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HARDIN-JEFFERSON vs. NAVASOTA BROADCASTHJ ADVANCES 68-64!