Potential New Alignments

[89Falcon]

Quick glance at TEA numbers (based on the last cut offs) show Orangefield, Tarkington and Shepherd going up to 4AD2. Warren and Trinity going up to 3AD1. Seems like this would likely pull Woodville and Warren back into 3A1-10. Trinity into 3A1-9. 

Orangefield into 4A2-9, possibly pushing Jasper back North with something like Shepherd, Tarkington, Rusk, Center, Carthage, Jasper. 

thoughts? 

[SmashMouth]

6 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

Quick glance at TEA numbers (based on the last cut offs) show Orangefield, Tarkington and Shepherd going up to 4AD2. Warren and Trinity going up to 3AD1. Seems like this would likely pull Woodville and Warren back into 3A1-10. Trinity into 3A1-9. 

Orangefield into 4A2-9, possibly pushing Jasper back North with something like Shepherd, Tarkington, Rusk, Center, Carthage, Jasper. 

thoughts? 

"Based on the last cutoffs" is the key phrase here... Oftentimes if the school's TEA numbers just barely put them over the last year's cutoffs, then there may be no change in reality as the current year's cutoffs get shifted up a bit.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

I hope we move back into Region 3 and drop to 5A D2 😁 (wishful thinking in bold)

[89Falcon]

8 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

I hope we move back into Region 3 and drop to 5A D2 😁 (wishful thinking in bold)

Looks like PAM is currently 273 over the cut at 2198, 8th-11. 631 kids in 10th grade is blowing it up. 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

6 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

Looks like PAM is currently 273 over the cut at 2198, 8th-11. 631 kids in 10th grade is blowing it up. 

You sure that isn't old info? 2198 was the exact number we had a few alignments ago. 

 

What's the link you're looking at, I want to check it out. 

[89Falcon]

Looks like Bridge City will move up which could keep Jasper in District 9 but I think it would be more likely that 9 turns into a 6 team district so they will be able to create a functional district to the North/NW with Shepherd and Tarkington. 

[89Falcon]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

You sure that isn't old info? 2198 was the exact number we had a few alignments ago. 

 

What's the link you're looking at, I want to check it out. 

You could be right. However, the numbers look correct for the other districts. Sort it by "district" and "grade".

 

 

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[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 minute ago, 89Falcon said:

You could be right. However, the numbers look correct for the other districts. 

 

 

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Thank you 😎

[89Falcon]

Also looks like Splendora will go up to 5AD2. 

[Austin1985]

47 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

Looks like PAM is currently 273 over the cut at 2198, 8th-11. 631 kids in 10th grade is blowing it up. 

the number in 2022 was 2008 or so.  You telling me we will be north of 2100?

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

11 minutes ago, Austin1985 said:

the number in 2022 was 2008 or so.  You telling me we will be north of 2100?

I wanna see the number on snapshot day, I don't think it'll be anywhere near 2200 🤷🏾‍♂️

[89Falcon]

53 minutes ago, Austin1985 said:

the number in 2022 was 2008 or so.  You telling me we will be north of 2100?

That is the number right now. 631 kids in 10th will be tough to overcome. 

[Austin1985]

3 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

That is the number right now. 631 kids in 10th will be tough to overcome. 

I'm not worried because I also think new schools like the one in New Caney(North Fork I think the name is), will push that 5A/6A cutoff up to the point which WB and United will be in 5A Div 1 which will put PA back in reg 3

[Cougar Den]

2 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

Quick glance at TEA numbers (based on the last cut offs) show Orangefield, Tarkington and Shepherd going up to 4AD2. Warren and Trinity going up to 3AD1. Seems like this would likely pull Woodville and Warren back into 3A1-10. Trinity into 3A1-9. 

Orangefield into 4A2-9, possibly pushing Jasper back North with something like Shepherd, Tarkington, Rusk, Center, Carthage, Jasper. 

thoughts? 

Unless they keep upping the numbers  . Orangefield , Shepherd & Tarkington staying 3A . I think the number stops at 544 

 

[89Falcon]

2 minutes ago, Cougar Den said:

Unless they keep upping the numbers  . Orangefield , Shepherd & Tarkington staying 3A . I think the number stops at 544 

 

Shepherd is over 600 8th-11. OF and Tarkington well past the cut

[lcm93]

What is the enrollment for new caney west fork ?

[WOSdrummer99]

For reference, these are the current alignment cutoff numbers.

6A         2225 and up

5A D I   1925 – 2224

5A D II  1300 – 1924

4A D I     880 – 1299

4A D II    545 – 879

3A D I     360 – 544

3A D II    250 – 359

2A D I   164.5 – 249

2A D II    105 – 164.4

1A D I     59.5 – 104.9

1A D II    59.4 and below

[89Falcon]

9 minutes ago, WOSdrummer99 said:

For reference, these are the current alignment cutoff numbers.

6A         2225 and up

5A D I   1925 – 2224

5A D II  1300 – 1924

4A D I     880 – 1299

4A D II    545 – 879

3A D I     360 – 544

3A D II    250 – 359

2A D I   164.5 – 249

2A D II    105 – 164.4

1A D I     59.5 – 104.9

1A D II    59.4 and below

Yep, that was the cut numbers that I based my projections. To me, the real question is what 4AD2 will look like. The addition of OF, Shepherd and Tarkington mess up the 4AD2 numbers for the region. Rusk, Center, Carthage are the only ones close that can fill out a district. Suppose they could add Madisonville again. I know Center would like to split from Carthage. 

[Matthew328]

The starting # we will work with in 5A/6A for our projections will be 2275 and then we'll work up or down accordingly

[89Falcon]

15 hours ago, lcm93 said:

What is the enrollment for new caney west fork ?

Would need to know what middle schools feed into the high school. They had 363 in the 9th grade.

[PrairieMan]

10 minutes ago, 89Falcon said:

Would need to know what middle schools feed into the high school. They had 363 in the 9th grade.

From my understanding currently only Woodridge Forest Middle school feeds into West Fork. However that's completely based off of conversations with friends of ours that live there. 

[JimAdler]

Hardin current enrollment is 409.  I have been informed that the 3A D1 projected cut off will be close to 380-385.

[PrairieMan]

16 hours ago, 89Falcon said:

Shepherd is over 600 8th-11. OF and Tarkington well past the cut

Unless I'm looking at something wrong, the number I come up with for Tarkington is 556 and thus puts us only 11 kids over just based on the enrollment numbers from the website you provided. I think the avg line move over the past few years has been about 8% of the bottom number so that would put the estimated cutoff at around 570. Don't get me wrong even that would put us really close to the cutoff. Not trying to be argumentative, just wondering where you're coming up with Tarkington will be well above 600+ kids from?

[89Falcon]

11 minutes ago, JimAdler said:

Hardin current enrollment is 409.  I have been informed that the 3A D1 projected cut off will be close to 380-385.

That would keep them in the same district. Their enrollment 8-11 is 441, 

[89Falcon]

1 minute ago, PrairieMan said:

Unless I'm looking at something wrong, the number I come up with for Tarkington is 556 and thus puts us only 11 kids over just based on the enrollment numbers from the website you provided. I think the avg line move over the past few years has been about 8% of the bottom number so that would put the estimated cutoff at around 570. Don't get me wrong even that would put us really close to the cutoff. Not trying to be argumentative, just wondering where you're coming up with Tarkington will be well above 600+ kids from?

Never said Tarkington would be over 600 kids. Shepherd is the one that will be over 600. If the cut off went to 570 that would likely save Tarkington. My initial projections were based upon existing cut off numbers.