FanintheStands

Stevenash, I assume you are very happy that I am right, eh brother?

HJ is up by 4 with 1:45 or so left.  Bosha is fixing to shoot 2.

[quote name="Sloe" post="1188115" timestamp="1330480773"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96642.msg1188044#msg1188044 date=1330479630] [quote author=indian15/16 link=topic=96642.msg1187775#msg1187775 date=1330469256] I like HJ in this contest based on what I saw last fri. night. One thing that puzzles me with regards to HJ is how they can be so good considering how bad they are from the foul line. It will be harder to put away good teams if they don't improve in this area in a hurry. You can forget about them winning a close game in the later rounds if they continue to shoot their free throws so poorly. I know it was just one game but based on the one game I saw, Johnson is the key for HJ. Everyone knows about Prudhomme is the best player on that team but Johnson is the "Robin" to Prudhomme's "Batman". IMO [/quote]HJ needs to improve free throws?  Where in the world do you get that from? No, actually, you are preaching to the choir, Indian!  This has been their Achilles Heel for years.  Sutherland has them practicing free throws all the time, but for some reason, that is still a problem.  It is sporatic, though.  First Silsbee game, they shot 35% from the line.  2nd game, HJ made like 28 of their last 30! As for your whole analysis, you are rather spot-on. [/quote]Agreed. [/quote]Indian is fixing to be proven right or wrong.  HJ is tied at 52 and then hit 4 straight free throws with 3 minutes left.

OK, we survived their run.  Let's take it home! HJ by 7 with the rattlers shooting 2.

and Prudhomme just got his 4th foul!

[quote name="indian15/16" post="1187775" timestamp="1330469256"] I like HJ in this contest based on what I saw last fri. night. One thing that puzzles me with regards to HJ is how they can be so good considering how bad they are from the foul line. It will be harder to put away good teams if they don't improve in this area in a hurry. You can forget about them winning a close game in the later rounds if they continue to shoot their free throws so poorly. I know it was just one game but based on the one game I saw, Johnson is the key for HJ. Everyone knows about Prudhomme is the best player on that team but Johnson is the "Robin" to Prudhomme's "Batman". IMO [/quote]HJ needs to improve free throws?  Where in the world do you get that from? No, actually, you are preaching to the choir, Indian!  This has been their Achilles Heel for years.  Sutherland has them practicing free throws all the time, but for some reason, that is still a problem.  It is sporatic, though.  First Silsbee game, they shot 35% from the line.  2nd game, HJ made like 28 of their last 30! As for your whole analysis, you are rather spot-on.

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1187900" timestamp="1330473957"] Sooo, the winner essentially has just ONE more game to play....right? :D :D [/quote]Oh yeah, good timing Dickie.  ???

How is the foul situation?

Let's Get It On!!!!

[quote name="whsalum" post="1187255" timestamp="1330404950"] No disrespect to the Lions but but the caliber of competition in district play had more to do with the outcome than their game being elevated.The lions are playing better ball now than they have all season but their lack of size is gonna hurt them over the next couple of rounds. [/quote]hmmm, after looking again at their schedule you are probably right.  Of course, which team is going to show up?  The Lions that throw down a 30 point win over Tatum?  Or the Lions that let Nacogdoches Central Heights beat them like a drum twice. Good point, whsalum.

[quote name="bmrm" post="1187234" timestamp="1330403498"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186452#msg1186452 date=1330314014] Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me. [/quote] As I've previously stated - me too!  We have to convert all turnovers, layups into points & make our free throws.  Can't let Navasota hang around like Sealy did.  [/quote]Do we have to go through this one more..... no, nevermind.  ::)

The way I understand it, AAW is going to broadcast a game at Crosby tonight, regardless. As best as we can tell, it's either Silsbee/Coldspring or the Parents/Faculty fundraiser for Operation Graduation.  Let's keep our fingers crossed that its the right game.  I mean, that faculty team is on a 7 year winning streak!  ;)

[quote name="vp32" post="1187270" timestamp="1330405937"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96657.msg1187138#msg1187138 date=1330397377] Has anybody explained yet if Beaumont players are allowed to choose the high school they want to attend and how this is different from Houston schools, even if it is on a [b][i]slightly [/i][/b]smaller scale. [/quote] beaumont texas population - 118,296 houston texas population - 2,100,000 yeah thats real slight.  ::) [/quote]So, you are saying its all right to do it, just don't get carried away?

[quote name="utfan06" post="1186543" timestamp="1330349823"] Kountze is playing good ball right now ... I'm ready to make the drive to Huntsville [/quote]Yeah, it's like they turned on the switch early in district play and really began to elevate their game.  This is not the same Kountze team that opponents faced in the tournaments. Good Luck, Lions!

[quote name="LAZEEK" post="1187193" timestamp="1330400754"] Of all the teams that I have seen this year Kingwood Park is the most patient I have seen.  They will work you to death on defense.  They handle the press pretty well.  And they are very basketball smart!!! I think Central will pull it out, but if I were a betting man I would take KP and the points!!! [/quote]Hmmm.... I thought it was a well-documented point that Nederland, what with their lack of any real athleticism, was by far the most intelligent team around.  ;D ;D

[quote name="stevenash" post="1187150" timestamp="1330397865"] ;D HJ vs Kingwood Park 10-7 kingwood park after one 30-24 hj at half 40-37 hj after three 62-53 hj final [/quote]I think HJ took the lead at 13-12 and never relinquished it (maybe even at the 18 point mark midway through the 2nd).  It was close from time to time, but I don't think KP ever held the lead.

[quote name="homeless" post="1187097" timestamp="1330394900"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96684.msg1187044#msg1187044 date=1330392458] I remember the game and the team and never said I didnt.  However, I do remember some other guy saying that I did not see the same game he did because of the score differential at one point in that game.  Is that correct or did I actually say I don't remember the game? [/quote] OK, so you remembered everything about  the game just not the score as it went along, right? Hilarious. I admire that you don't let those nagging little things others call "facts" stand in your way. BTW, it was the differential thru out 7/8ths of the game that you got wrong, not "at one point." [/quote]Are you saying that Kingwood Park led 7/8ths of the game?!?!?

Has anybody explained yet if Beaumont players are allowed to choose the high school they want to attend and how this is different from Houston schools, even if it is on a [i]slightly [/i]smaller scale.

[quote name="stevenash" post="1187128" timestamp="1330396876"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96703.msg1187123#msg1187123 date=1330396427] Steve, Breithaupt coached me in 7th grade (Buna)!  He even had me wear his number.  That was pretty cool!  But, alas, I couldn't shoot a 3 pointer if my life depended on it.  Well, that, and the fact that the three-point line was not around yet. [/quote] :)  I knew you had played at Buna and just sort of assumed he might have been your coach.  I can certainly see that not having a three point line might make it difficult ;D [/quote]No.  Sadly, the lack of a 3 point line had absolutely nothing to do with my ability to hit the 3-pointer!  Outside of 10 footers, I couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.  I could dribble, pass, and defend with the best of them, but I couldn't shoot.  Luckily, I knew that, so my team mates always loved me!

[quote name="stevenash" post="1187116" timestamp="1330396043"] It must be just you.  I have never given you karma in either direction.  I didnt say you believed in the up/down theory but asked because you mentioned it.[/quote]... and I mentioned it simply because your 0 time weekly stock beaters outdoing the 3 and 4 time weekly stock pickers seems to reflect the same theory as the "Dogs of the Dow", which, IMO is simply based on those believing that what goes up, must come down.  Absolutely nothing to do with sports, however, which is what I was insinuating about your stock pickers analogy/story. [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]We will just have to agree to disagree on the relevance of the coin flip.  There are no human variable in a coin flip( unless you want to claim the flip itself is a variable) and there are a ton of them in a basketball game.[/quote]Agree.  But, just like the coin toss, there is a winner and a loser and the odds of being one of them adds up to 100%.  There is a far greater correlation there than there is between stocks.  Remember, only liberals believe that the market is a "0 sum game" (for every winner, there is a loser).  Don't be a liberal, Steve!    ;) [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]Hmmm- I dont believe I stated (or, for that matter, gave you any reason to believe) that I thought Yates will get to where they lose every game.  Possibly a little hyperbole there?  My statement, which I will stand by, suggests that their relative performance at some point in the future, will not be as good as it is now.  This happens all the time aka Sugarland Willowridge, Ozen, etc. etc.[/quote]Sorry, when you said, "[u]Do I believe that Yates is due for a downturn[/u]?  ...  If the time frame is long enough, [b][u]my guess is  they will experience one relative to their current status[/u][/b]", my assumption was that their downturn will be just as bad as their win streak is good.  My bad. [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]In regard to Devonte, I believe the chances for him missing his 5th three point attempt is greater for a number of reasons.  1.  His legs will have a little less bounce in them  2.  The defense will be trying a little harder to contest his shot  3.  Confidence can work for or against a shooter    I am pretty close to the HJ all time career three point shooting leader and over the years I developed a pretty good feel/understanding about the pluses and minuses regarding confidence.  I had a very successful coach who now happens to be the head of the UIL remark to me that 3 point shooting percentage almost always declines as the number of attempts increases.  I didnt do any checking on that.  I assumed he knew what he was talking about. [/quote]Well, I think you got me on that one.  I never considered that before.  Good point!

Steve, Breithaupt coached me in 7th grade (Buna)!  He even had me wear his number.  That was pretty cool!  But, alas, I couldn't shoot a 3 pointer if my life depended on it.  Well, that, and the fact that the three-point line was not around yet.

[quote name="stevenash" post="1187001" timestamp="1330388622"] If you believe in the "what goes up must go down theory" do you believe it only in the case of stocks or as a general principal? If a team wins 4 in a row( the up) while another loses 4 in a row,(the down) is there a chance that the up/down relationship will change or is it a permanent trend?  If Devante Johnson hits his first four 3 pointers, is he more likely to make or miss his next one?[/quote]Where did I say I believe in the "what goes up must come down" theory? As far as what are the odds of a team beating another after 4 consecutive wins against them?  I would say they are exactly the same as normal... in other words, the "consecutive win streak" is not a factor.  If Devonte hits his first four 3-pointers in the row, and you ask me what are his odd of missing his next shot?  I'd see its roughly the same as his regular shot percentage, or maybe even a little lower chance of missing it.  But that is because he has more confidence in his shot, which is one of the determining factors in making shots. [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622] I agree that basketball game outcomes aren't determined by stock investing statistical analysis and I am sure you will agree they also have no relevance to coin flips.[/quote]Sure, but coin flips coincide more.  In other words, they follow a more parallel pattern.  Investing analysis is not the same. For instance, in coin tosses, just like basketball games, there is a winner and a loser.  In stocks, there are many winners.  Sometimes, nearly all of them are winners.  Others, for instance, the first day of the stock market after 9/11, nearly all of them were losers.  In other words, in Stocks, for every winner, there is not necessarily a loser (and vice versa). [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1187001#msg1187001 date=1330388622]Do I believe that Yates is due for a downturn?  If you mean this week, or this season, probably not.  If the time frame is long enough, my guess is  they will experience one relative to their current status. [/quote]So, you guess that Yates will get to where they will lose every game for several years.  I don't know, but I could tell you that they have the same chance as any other school.  In other words, this run of theirs over the last few years does not make them MORE LIKELY to have a losing streak that compares to their winning streak. BTW, is it just me, or does it seem like every time I go back-and-forth with you I lose karma points?  :o

[quote name="NB-Dawg" post="1186615" timestamp="1330355216"] [b]By winning and getting city-wide (heck National) attention, the Yates program indirectly recruits kids to attend their school[/b], just like my example regarding Duke and NC State. Can a Little Dribbler's program indirectly recruit a kid to attend a different school, yes but on a much smaller scale. Little Dribbler's is not getting National coverage anywhere, right? That's what Wise is doing as well. By coaching an AAU team (I know the rules, not his own players), others can see what he's doing and say, "I want to play for Yates". He IS doing that, and it's an indirect method of recruiting, IMO. [/quote]But now you are simply saying that Wise is recruiting  [u][b]simply by being a very good coach[/b][/u].  That is a FAR CRY from what you what outright accusing him of earlier in the thread.

[quote name="KHSAlum400" post="1186069" timestamp="1330267873"] [url=[Hidden Content]] Game winner right here. Still don't know if that should have counted. 3.32 seconds left. If you start counting as soon as the ball is in that's almost 4 seconds.... [/quote]If that video is Real Time, I keep getting 3.74 seconds when I time it.

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186838" timestamp="1330371103"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96703.msg1186812#msg1186812 date=1330369829] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186794#msg1186794 date=1330368639] You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me.  My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory.  I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand.  At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side.  Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned.  I hope my concern is misplaced.  As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters. [/quote]have you thought about the weight on Navasota's shoulder's if and when HJ takes the lead?  "Here we go again".  You and I both know that Sutherland won't let them get complacent.  From what I understand, the Silsbee defeat removed all threat of that happening (I think you have the same source as I do) again.  Second thing, I only know of 1 player that was involved in only 1 of those Navasota/HJ games.  I think the game is going to be no different than if they'd split the last 4 games.  Of course, there's no proof of that. Finally, you REALLY don't have to defend your investment strategy and success.  I nhope you know that. [/quote] Sure I have thought about it.  It would probably have the same effect as if Navasota goes on a run like Silsbee did against HJ.  My intended point in all of this is that there are many factors within the matchup that simply can't be quantified.  Yes, you and I can say/hope that Sutherland doesnt let them be complacent but I have seen them be that way several times this year.  You and I can't do much about Navasota being a little more motivated having lost a very big game to the same team 4 times.  Just for fun, you might enjoy this statistic that I maintain myself.  I price 1000 stocks every day and look at their performance over a 4 week period( I have a lot of samples)  After a 4 week period has ended, I list the stocks that outperformed the market 4 times, 3 times, 2 times, 1 time, and zero times.  The best subsequent performers (as a group) is the zero time outperformers.  I am not a statistical genius but in this business, you have "the second differential"," reversion to the mean", "standard deviation" and I can't remember how many others thrown at you on a regular basis.  If you are going to comprehend what you are being told, you have to become, at least, a little familiar with that stuff. [/quote]That sounds familiar to the "Dogs of the Dow" theory.  What goes up must (usually) come down and vice versa.  Hence, the ones that have beaten it 4 times are headed for the anticipated "down", while the zero performers are ready for their rebound. But, thank goodness basketball games aren't determined using stock investing statistical analysis!  ;)  BTW, do you see any correlation between the two?  If so, that would mean that Yates is due for a downtown that would make the Dot.Com Bubble seem like a day at the park!