FanintheStands

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186794" timestamp="1330368639"] You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me.  My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory.  I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand.  At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side.  Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned.  I hope my concern is misplaced.  As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters. [/quote]have you thought about the weight on Navasota's shoulder's if and when HJ takes the lead?  "Here we go again".  You and I both know that Sutherland won't let them get complacent.  From what I understand, the Silsbee defeat removed all threat of that happening (I think you have the same source as I do) again.  Second thing, I only know of 1 player that was involved in only 1 of those Navasota/HJ games.  I think the game is going to be no different than if they'd split the last 4 games.  Of course, there's no proof of that. Finally, you REALLY don't have to defend your investment strategy and success.  I nhope you know that.

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186719" timestamp="1330361854"] I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row.  As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet.  Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip.  If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups.  Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0.  No other instance of 4 consecutive wins. [/quote]Steve, If you use your knowledge of statistical coin flipping to demonstrate your ability to invest in other people's money, then remind me never to invest with you!  ;) Regarding the 4-0 runs, you are still going about it the wrong way.  Its not, "what are the odds of beating someone 5 times in a row".  Its "what are the odds of, having beat your opponent 4 times in a row, that you beat them the next time you play".

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186619" timestamp="1330355411"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96703.msg1186596#msg1186596 date=1330354195] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186452#msg1186452 date=1330314014] Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me. [/quote]Why?  They have no barren on the outcome of this game.... unless you believe in Karma. If you've flipped a coin 4 times and they've all come up heads, the chances of the next coin toss coming up heads is still 50%. [/quote] I am fully conversant with your statistical viewpoint.  However, there is a lot more involved here than stats and there are a lot more variables in this game than there are in a coin flip.  It might be interesting to look at a sample of college or pro scores, (where that information is readily available) [b]and see just how often a team beats an opponent four or five consecutive times[/b]. [/quote]... and this last statement shows me you may not be conversant with my statistical viewpoint. Look up pro teams that have beaten another team 4 times in a row... and then see how often the team with the streak wins the 5th game.  I would bet you it is greater than 50%, not less. Or better yet, look at best of 7 game series, where one team has one 3 in a row and leads the series 3 games to 0.  What is the record of the leading team in the 4th game of the series.  I would bet you it is greater than 50%.

[quote name="stevenash" post="1186452" timestamp="1330314014"] Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me. [/quote]Why?  They have no barren on the outcome of this game.... unless you believe in Karma. If you've flipped a coin 4 times and they've all come up heads, the chances of the next coin toss coming up heads is still 50%.

[quote name="Lt. Dangle" post="1186557" timestamp="1330351085"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96642.msg1186340#msg1186340 date=1330304677] [quote author=tokenwb link=topic=96642.msg1186335#msg1186335 date=1330304311] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96642.msg1186330#msg1186330 date=1330303645] [quote author=tokenwb link=topic=96642.msg1186321#msg1186321 date=1330301948] Last year Navasota was taller, but this years team is quicker and an overall better team.  Silsbee beat them easily last year. This year was a pretty hard win for the Tigers.  [b]I think the bigs from HJ will be the difference in this game[/b].  HJ should win this by 12.  Good luck HJ. [/quote]What big wins?  Everybody knows HJ had no big wins with their cup-cake schedule!  ;) [/quote]I don't want to get into the schedule debate.  I think its #32 for HJ (very good fundamental post player) who will be the difference. [/quote]Ahhhh, I missed that one.  I thought "the bigs from HJ" was "the big wins for HJ". When IS my eye doctor's appointment again? [/quote] Hopefully you are one of the refs working the game @ Willis tomorrow night. If so, HJ bigs dominate, SP has 4 dunks & HJ wins by 19. [/quote]Maybe I can start the "4th man" group ...  Just like the Aggie's have the 12th man, standing up waiting to enter the game if coach needs them, I'll be waiting to jump in and ref should Coach Suther.... I mean, if the ref's need me!

[quote name="tokenwb" post="1186335" timestamp="1330304311"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96642.msg1186330#msg1186330 date=1330303645] [quote author=tokenwb link=topic=96642.msg1186321#msg1186321 date=1330301948] Last year Navasota was taller, but this years team is quicker and an overall better team.  Silsbee beat them easily last year. This year was a pretty hard win for the Tigers.  [b]I think the bigs from HJ will be the difference in this game[/b].  HJ should win this by 12.  Good luck HJ. [/quote]What big wins?  Everybody knows HJ had no big wins with their cup-cake schedule!  ;) [/quote]I don't want to get into the schedule debate.  I think its #32 for HJ (very good fundamental post player) who will be the difference. [/quote]Ahhhh, I missed that one.  I thought "the bigs from HJ" was "the big wins for HJ". When IS my eye doctor's appointment again?

[quote name="tokenwb" post="1186321" timestamp="1330301948"] Last year Navasota was taller, but this years team is quicker and an overall better team.  Silsbee beat them easily last year. This year was a pretty hard win for the Tigers.  [b]I think the bigs from HJ will be the difference in this game[/b].  HJ should win this by 12.  Good luck HJ. [/quote]What big wins?  Everybody knows HJ had no big wins with their cup-cake schedule!  ;)

[quote name="captredass" post="1186323" timestamp="1330303114"] Silsbee was holding their breath a few times against Splendora through-out the game and if a few three's fell early in the game, then it would of ended different. Coldspring never gave up that many rebounds to a person under 6' like they did to Splendora. I think they under estimated Splendora just like they are doing to Coldspring. Number 5 in state is going to their head, Coldspring is not intimidated. They are not HJ, by far. Silsbee's luck will be running out Tuesday. [/quote]#5 in state is nothing new to Silsbee.  I don't think that's gonna go to their head.

[quote name="BADSANTA" post="1186225" timestamp="1330285998"] Don't sleep on ColdSprings! Upsets happen because the better team over looks them. Silsbee will have their hands full once again Tuesday night. [/quote]It's our job to "sleep on" teams like ColdSpring.  The coaches, however, will have their teams prepared.

[quote name="True Blue" post="1185820" timestamp="1330206093"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96549.msg1185648#msg1185648 date=1330195800] [quote author=True Blue link=topic=96549.msg1185554#msg1185554 date=1330185700] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96549.msg1185473#msg1185473 date=1330173579] [quote author=HowdyMan link=topic=96549.msg1185469#msg1185469 date=1330173338] I removed my post because [b]it was inappropriate and not 100% accurate[/b].  I apologize to HJ, Prudhomme, and the coaching staff.  Congratulations on the win and good luck making it to state. [/quote]What was your first clue?  When "True Blue" backed you up? ;D ;D ;D ;D [/quote] I did not back anyone up. I just said not to act like a little kid and try and blame someone else. I was not at the game but sounds to me like two big guy playing hard inside. If you have never been down there you would not understand. And as far as being upset with anyone from HJ it could not be farther from the truth. I got to see a few fokes from HJ last yr in Austin in the stands when we were on the floor. [/quote]Yeah, right..... Howdy calls our kid a thug and Blue is quiet.  Some HJ posters come to the defense of said Thug and you jump on them, instead of the man who obvious "had never been down there" who called Sean a thug.  No, you weren't backing anybody. Your last statement "seeing our fans in the stands" speaks volume, Blue. [/quote] My statement was for a monitor that always attacks  players from any team but HJ. If Shawn, or any of his family would have complained I would have never said any thing. This guy is always ready to throw stones at other people. But DONT EVER THROW THEM BACK... [/quote]As I said, Your last statement "[i]seeing HJ fans in the stands while our boys were playing in Austin[/i]" is more telling than any other excuses you give out.

[quote name="True Blue" post="1185820" timestamp="1330206093"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96549.msg1185648#msg1185648 date=1330195800] [quote author=True Blue link=topic=96549.msg1185554#msg1185554 date=1330185700] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96549.msg1185473#msg1185473 date=1330173579] [quote author=HowdyMan link=topic=96549.msg1185469#msg1185469 date=1330173338] I removed my post because [b]it was inappropriate and not 100% accurate[/b].  I apologize to HJ, Prudhomme, and the coaching staff.  Congratulations on the win and good luck making it to state. [/quote]What was your first clue?  When "True Blue" backed you up? ;D ;D ;D ;D [/quote] I did not back anyone up. I just said not to act like a little kid and try and blame someone else. I was not at the game but sounds to me like two big guy playing hard inside. If you have never been down there you would not understand. And as far as being upset with anyone from HJ it could not be farther from the truth. I got to see a few fokes from HJ last yr in Austin in the stands when we were on the floor. [/quote]Yeah, right..... Howdy calls our kid a thug and Blue is quiet.  Some HJ posters come to the defense of said Thug and you jump on them, instead of the man who obvious "had never been down there" who called Sean a thug.  No, you weren't backing anybody. Your last statement "seeing our fans in the stands" speaks volume, Blue. [/quote] My statement was for a monitor that always attacks  players from any team but HJ. If Shawn, or any of his family would have complained I would have never said any thing. This guy is always ready to throw stones at other people. But DONT EVER THROW THEM BACK... [/quote]As I said, Your last statement "[i]seeing our fans in the stands while our boys were playing in Austin[/i]" is more telling than any other excuses you give out. 

[quote name="Baller 93" post="1185715" timestamp="1330199608"] Are yall really getting on #1 Manager for hearing a rumor going around Lamar!?!    It's not like he came out and stated that, he said he heard something about it. Yall have too much time on yalls hands, if yall are going to try prove a small point to one person. How bout in this thread yall talk about how many people are gonna be at the game instead of single him out!!!  Thats whats wrong with this site, people on here just hate on others or try to start a pointless arguement.      In the meantime I hope a lot of people come out to what should be a thrilling game.  Best of Luck to Ozen and Nederland!!!! [/quote]Were they picking on #1 manager, or were they asking #1 manager for clarification?  I didn't see anything wrong with the question.  I was assuming he was asking #1 manager to check back with his source to see if he can find out what's up.

[quote name="PoppaBearstarr" post="1185815" timestamp="1330205930"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96650.msg1185560#msg1185560 date=1330186543] [quote author=captredass link=topic=96650.msg1185546#msg1185546 date=1330184917] Coldspring will be ready due to the hype, but this could go either way. It all depends on Coldspring's guards. They have too many second half turn-overs and still unable to shoot the outside shot with confidence. Stafford was closer than it should of been, coach almost waited too long to sub some of the guards, Coldspring three big men kept them in the game with rebounds and defense. Coldspring by 6 points, if the referee's allows them to play. [/quote] I havent seen Coldspring play but am thinking that the more the refs "let em play" the more that favors Silsbee (unless Coldspring is more physical than Silsbee) [/quote] Agreed Nash , If I were coldsprings I would hope for a tightly called game... [/quote]Agreed, whole-heartedly. IMO, this is the only way ColdSpring can keep up with Silsbee and their speed.

[quote name="stevenash" post="1185771" timestamp="1330201557"] So, if you are in Houston, you can choose any school you wish to choose beginning in the 9th grade.  IF this is not the case in most other areas, would you consider that to be sort of an unfair advantage for the kids in Houston? [/quote]I may be naive, but isn't this the rule in Beaumont?  Can an 8th grade student pick between Central, Ozen, and West Brook.

And HJ would still have (probably) #1 LaVega to deal with before that happens.  I'm sure that Silsbee's path is not much easier.

[quote name="True Blue" post="1185554" timestamp="1330185700"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96549.msg1185473#msg1185473 date=1330173579] [quote author=HowdyMan link=topic=96549.msg1185469#msg1185469 date=1330173338] I removed my post because [b]it was inappropriate and not 100% accurate[/b].  I apologize to HJ, Prudhomme, and the coaching staff.  Congratulations on the win and good luck making it to state. [/quote]What was your first clue?  When "True Blue" backed you up? ;D ;D ;D ;D [/quote] I did not back anyone up. I just said not to act like a little kid and try and blame someone else. I was not at the game but sounds to me like two big guy playing hard inside. If you have never been down there you would not understand. And as far as being upset with anyone from HJ it could not be farther from the truth. I got to see a few fokes from HJ last yr in Austin in the stands when we were on the floor. [/quote]Yeah, right..... Howdy calls our kid a thug and Blue is quiet.  Some HJ posters come to the defense of said Thug and you jump on them, instead of the man who obvious "had never been down there" who called Sean a thug.  No, you weren't backing anybody. Your last statement "seeing our fans in the stands" speaks volume, Blue.

[quote name="ST413" post="1185490" timestamp="1330177909"] according to the bracket the regional final is at 6:00.  Has it changed? I know in the past they have changed the times [/quote]No, I remember in the past it was early afternoon.  Ozen plays today in their regional final at 1:00. Ergo, I assumed.........

[quote name="stevenash" post="1185485" timestamp="1330176342"] [quote author=FanintheStands link=topic=96652.msg1185467#msg1185467 date=1330173288] Getting closer to "[size=12pt][b]Hardin County Havoc - round 3[/b][/size]"!!!!  I'm thinking about 172 hours if things go as planned! Good luck to [u][b]both [/b][/u]teams.... until next Saturday!  ;) [/quote] I hope you are right.  However, if tipoff is not scheduled to be at 10:46 a.m. next Saturday, you may have just caused a lot of concern. [/quote]Rats! I always get that 12 hour deal wrong (who's idea was that anyway?).  7:00am til 1:00 pm is 6 hours!!!!!  I was assuming 1:00 pm and rounding off. I think our road is a little rockier between here and next Saturday then Silsbee's, but you and I both know the boys are up to it!

[quote name="HowdyMan" post="1185469" timestamp="1330173338"] I removed my post because [b]it was inappropriate and not 100% accurate[/b].  I apologize to HJ, Prudhomme, and the coaching staff.  Congratulations on the win and good luck making it to state. [/quote]What was your first clue?  When "True Blue" backed you up? ;D ;D ;D ;D

[quote name="BigDaddy00" post="1185435" timestamp="1330149238"] Argyle defeats Dallas Madison!!! 43-29 [/quote]What, did they forget to take the lid off the baskets?

[quote name="setx22-3a" post="1185444" timestamp="1330150960"] I think Coldspring will put up a heck of a fight and upset Silsbee.. I heard Silsbee is blazing fast and i would like to see how the Trojans match up to it.. Seems like Coldspring players rise the level of play with HYPE and DOUBT.. looking forward to the game.. Good luck to both teams [/quote]Have you seen Silsbee play?

Getting closer to "[size=12pt][b]Hardin County Havoc - round 3[/b][/size]"!!!!  I'm thinking about 172 hours if things go as planned! Good luck to [u][b]both [/b][/u]teams.... until next Saturday!  ;)

[quote name="BMTSoulja1" post="1185275" timestamp="1330139353"] Brenham - 63 Central - 70 Final with a 2 handed putback dunk to finish it by K. Smith!!! [/quote]First of all, Congrats to Central! But Soulja?  It sounds like you enjoyed that dunk at the end! 

[quote name="bmrm" post="1185336" timestamp="1330141228"] [quote author=bullets13 link=topic=96644.msg1185299#msg1185299 date=1330140086]   Are Navasota and Coldspring as tough as Sealy and Brookshire Royal?  Navasota played a mostly tight game against a team that HJ spanked a couple of times this year, and Coldspring barely squeaked by a Stafford team that HJ was nice enough to let reach 30 the other day.  Your thoughts? [/quote] I think HJ will have a more difficult time with Navasota than Silsbee will have with Coldspring. [/quote]I agree.  I don't think Coldspring will be much of a problem for Silsbee.  Their defensive pressure seems to really disrupt other teams.

There are no more pretenders in the play-offs.  Navasota gave Silsbee a run for their money right before district.  I think they had Silsbee by 10 late in the 3rd.  They are no pansy.