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NoNeckNic479

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Posts posted by NoNeckNic479

  3. Jasper at LCM

    in High School Football

    Posted

    42 minutes ago, LCMAlumtiger32 said:

    From what I was told it rained this morning at LCM and it wasn’t a whole lot. But I hope field conditions don’t hurt the game 

    I work about 10 minutes from LCM Stadium and its rained hard a couple/few times today and the rest of the day has been a steady drizzle. 

  4. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, texbuzz said:

    Slow day at the office...might just type up a long post...

    Huffman V. La Marque

    La Marque - This years La Marque team was way better than last year.  They played very physical but mistakes and tempo did them in.  Punt coverage gave Huffman a short field twice and the Huffman D-Line isn't big but fast.  It was disruptive.

    Huffman - Huffman knows they don't have big lineman. On both sides of the ball. Wisely, they don't try to play big.  Speed, technique, and scheme has been the focus.  The O-Line for the La Marque game included a couple backups, a JV player that got promoted, and a player moved to guard from tackle. This was not their best performance by far but they know what they got.  Injuries have been brutal (always the case) but the bye week was right on time.  Expect some to be back fully and some may be on a "pitch count" for LCM.

    LCM and Huffman comparison data

    I like to run numbers, in a limited fashion, on teams to try and figure out how good (or bad) they really are.  Its kinda silly to compare individual games, even against the same opponent and then draw out a conclusion from that.  Too many moving parts.  So, what numbers matter?  I lean towards:

    • Quality of opponent  (I like MaxPreps Texas rankings for this number.  No opinions, only data).
    • PA/PF

    Quality of opponent - LCM has played a tougher schedule.  Opponents on average are about 25% better ranked than HH opponents.  WOS was the best opponent by far and that was reflected in the score.  If you remove the WOS game (not counting Woodville non-game of course) the opponent ranking is pretty even with Huffman, if not slightly better.  By the numbers, the Quality of Opponent for LCM and Huffman match up pretty close.  If they were wildly different, that could be factored in.  At this point, its a wash....Unless something weird happens at Jasper.

    PA/PF - LCM has allowed almost double the points than HH. Remove the WOS game you would need to pull the Navasota game for HH to try (gets silly here) and do an even comparison.  Numbers stay the same.  Huffman defense allows fewer points than LCM against comparable opponents.  If you would like to flatten the data a bit, take the Points Scored / Points Allowed and you get 1.98 for LCM. They outscore their opponents at that rate.  Huffman factor is 6.3.  That is a big difference.  Do I think Huffman is 3 times better than LCM...absolutely not.  But if you are trying to forecast, its a big difference.

    Matchups

    Before you say it, I know "thats why they play the game".  This is all just tomfoolery and speculation.  It is certainly decided on the grass on Friday nights.  But I do like poring over this stuff.

    LCM Off / HH Def - LCM run game has an impressive threat with #7.  He is quick and has good vision.  A big factor for his success is #9 running ability also.  He reads the option pretty consistently. He has to be taken into account.  The O-Line moves the line of scrimmage well and creates big lanes.  HH D-Line is fast and sets up blitzes from different LBs and OLBs.  The LCM QB does tend to bail on the pocket quick but it doesn't look like LCM picks up blitzes as well.  LCM passing game is built off their run game.  Short throws with a couple crossing routes.  They have a couple players that are getting good YAC.  LCM rarely throws deep and when they do, its not very successful.  The run defense for HH is better than I expected so far but this will be the best rushing attack they have seen.  They will get to the ball carrier faster than most teams LCM has seen this year but #7 runs through poor tackling.  He will be productive but if the HH defense plays as fast as they have been, they could force LCM to throw the ball a bit more.  If that is the case, HH should match up well with the quick pass game and dominate the deep threat.  If both teams play to their strengths, this should be an even match.

    HH Off / LCM Def - As goes #7 for HH, so goes the offense.  He is far from the only athlete on this offense but he is a great athlete in a great position.  His ability to turn bad situations into gains has been nice to see.  While Huffman doesn't have a running back as productive as LCM, they do have some depth and options.  The O-line has been bitten by the injury bug but it is expected to heal up before the game.  The line plays fast and is better from a technique perspective than last year.  They do an excellent job of picking up the blitz.  Pass protection is better than expected.  That could also be due to the receiver corps.  They average 15 yards per completion with quite a few deep balls.  They are fast, and get great looks on intermediate routes.  Once the deep threat is established, the intermediate routes have opened up very well.  The Huffman passing game is probably the biggest advantage I see for the matchups.  Be consistent on the ground, pass to move the ball and score quick.

    Prediction

    I think predictions are kinda dumb because so many things happen.  Officiating, injuries, weirdos rushing the field (looking at you Bridge City).  But, if it plays out according to what I see...

    Huffman 32

    LCM 20

    If I am not factoring something in, by all means let me know.

    I've watched 2 WOS games this year.  1st was against LCM, 2nd was against newton.  The LCM vs WOS score is misleading.  WOS did not play near their potential, very sloppy tackling and a ton of penalties.  The WOS looked more like more WOS against Newton.  Maybe WOS played down to their competition...IDK.  OR it could be that LCM is that much improved.

  5. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Hagar said:

    Anyone else think bye weeks are a bummer?  LCM & Splendora are the only two District teams playing this week.  The rest of us sit here twilling our thumbs, wishing Oct 1st would hurry up & get here.  And if Splendora beats Vidor again I’ll, I’ll I’ll, we’ll durn, I’ll think of something bad…😂

    Hard to get a bead on Splendora.  3-1 going into this week vs a 2-2 Shepherd team.  The combine record of teams Splendora has played is 5-12.  The only team with a winning record (HF) beat Splendora 41-21.

  7. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Hagar said:

    Not at all.  If you’ll remember they beat Vidor in Vidor last year, and only won one other District game, to LCM.  This year we play in Splendora, and LCM much improved, ergo this might be their only chance for a win.  In defense of the Pirates, they were running that “pistol”, which imo, negates the effectiveness of the Slot T.  Vidor loses enough games without losing one they should win, and they should’ve won the Splendora game last year.

    Yes, I remember the game very well and yes, LCM does look much improved from the past years but the next couple weeks will speak volumes for the LCM team (Jasper at home, then on the road to Huffman).

    I've tried comparing last years Vidor team to this years team and there is not much comparison.  What stands out the most is this years team.  They have a tougher mentality...never quit, always in the fight mind set.

  8. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Hagar said:

    Great for the players, rough on the fans.  Hope the Pirate Coaches spend it figuring out a way to beat Splendora.  They are 3-1, but their last win was over the Spring School for Little People 53-36.  Next week will be their only chance to win a District game. 😢

    Only chance to win a district game? Are you saying that Vidor is at the bottom of the district?

  9. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hagar said:

    Anyone else think bye weeks are a bummer?  LCM & Splendora are the only two District teams playing this week.  The rest of us sit here twilling our thumbs, wishing Oct 1st would hurry up & get here.  And if Splendora beats Vidor again I’ll, I’ll I’ll, we’ll durn, I’ll think of something bad…😂

    Bye week before district starts is not bad.  Extra week of preparation, extra time for bumps and bruises to heal. 

  10. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Lion backer 85 said:

    Maybe because it's a district prediction and orangefield is a common opponent or has played an opponent of a team in this district and everyone is trying to size each other up lol like how orangefield beat silsbee and Vidor got into a shootout with silsbee

    Week 1 performance vs a week 5 performance....past film vs current film.  Teams definitely are not the same from week 1 to week 5.  And scrimmages have NO bearing at this point in the season.

  11. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Lion backer 85 said:

    I don't know why everyone on here craps on orangefield like they weren't a solid and sound team to beat! They are a dang good football team and this years crop of orangefield football without a doubt is the best orangefield team we have faced in the past four years! and beat a good silsbee team to start district. Keep sleeping on Livingston just like all of you did last year.

    I dont know why OF is even being brought up in this thread 🤷‍♂️

  15. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Hagar said:

    Took a lot of willpower for me not to get on the MCM thread and say something, lol.  But out of respect for that great game I resisted.  For as I’m concerned, right now the Vidor rivalry is with Splendora.  I watched (again) the Hudl highlights of us losing to them last year.  Still boggles my mind.

    Bingo!  Splendora should be the only team on Vidors mind.  One week at a time.

  18. District 10-4A-1 Predictions

    in High School Football

    Posted

    3 hours ago, raideroldtimer said:

    If you wanted it to be just about football then you should have specified football. Yes this is the football forum in particular but you specified SPORT which of course is what the whole site is about. You left it wide open.

    Anything to spin the topic away from football huh?!  Stop drinking the water in Lumberton…it’s turning people into Lloyd and Harry 😂 

  19. Fall Ball Schedule

    in High School Baseball

    Posted

    9/28

    Silsbee vs Lumberton @Lumberton

    BC vs Vidor @Vidor

    Nederland vs HF @HF

    Jasper vs Anahuac @Anahuac

    LCM Bye

     

    10/5

    Lumberton vs Jasper @Jasper

    Vidor vs Nederland @Nederland

    HF vs Silsbee @Silsbee

    LCM vs Anahuac @Anahuac

    BC Bye

     

    10/12

    Jasper vs HF @HF

    Silsbee vs Vidor @Vidor

    Anahuac vs Lumberton @Lumberton

    LCM vs BC @BC

    Nederland Bye

     

    10/19

    Anahuac vs BC @BC

    Nederland vs LCM @LCM

    Vidor vs Jasper @Jasper

    HF vs Lumberton @Lumberton

    Silsbee Bye

     

    10/26

    HF vs Anahuac @Anahuac

    Lumberton vs Vidor @Vidor

    Silsbee vs LCM @LCM

    BC vs Nederland @Nederland

    Jasper Bye

     

    11/2

    Nederland vs Anahuac @Anahuac

    LCM vs Jasper @Jasper

    BC vs Silsbee @Silsbee

    Vidor vs HF @HF

    Lumberton Bye

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