OlDawg

PAM’s typical point differential against common opponents is 18. LP’s is 13. Five points. I’m a fan of an attacking D. That’s why some LP folks were nervous about last year, and are nervous about this year’s team. We’re not used to DFW style football. Since we lost our DC to Shadow Creek, our D has been questionable at best. How much effect the loss has had, I can’t say for sure. I’m not involved with the program. But, the margins of victory aren’t far apart at all when you compare common opponents. They just come from different styles. Unless TO’s play a big role, and both teams play to average, this should be a one score game or less. If PAM doesn’t get any TO’s, your scoring average goes WAY down. PAM has been living off TO’s. LP hasn’t gotten many TO’s this year. (That’s part of the D issue.) So, if they don’t get any TO’s, it doesn’t affect their scoring average much at all. Yes. 4th round would be an accomplishment. As I’ve said, LP only has 3 or 4 starting Seniors between both the O & D. If the transfer portal doesn’t hit hard, next year would appear to be the next peak year for LP. LP’s been playing with a BU OL since game 1. Those players will be experienced next year. Plus, all the skill players would return except for the TE, and most of the D would return—with a year of experience and growth under their belt. If y’all are gonna try to make the series closer, this year is probably a better bet than next year. EDIT: I put the link to El Ranchero in the earlier post after you liked it if you want to check it out. I’d love to meet with y’all pregame as I haven’t seen some of y’all in years—from a past life when we all used to pregame together with some NS, Katy, and other fan bases. But, my better half requires 24/7/365 care now. So, I don’t get to go to games any more. I have to watch streams.

Gotcha

What do you mean? We razz each other on here. But, I thought things were going well. Didn’t y’all just pass a bond for a new stadium and all? I thought excitement would be big over there right now.

How do you explain only scoring 23 against GCM when RSS scored 28? How about BWB? It was only 7-0 very late until a tipped Bruin pass in the end zone changed momentum. 7 points? #4 in the State? Really? Randle will eat all our lunches & make us pay them for our lunchboxes as they leave.

If you’re coming, be safe and enjoy the stadium. If you come early and want some real pregame TexMex, hit up El Ranchero on Main St. I recommend the Tommy Tacos. I get the 3 taco plate. You can ask for charros with any meal instead of refried if you prefer them. They’re excellent. There’s extra parking in the back. [Hidden Content]

PAM fans— What’s going on over there? Y’all don’t have a Freshman team. LP had to find entirely new opponents this week for a game. LP’s two freshman squads are having to go to Tomas HS & Hightower to play this week. @Mr. Buddy Garrity @Austin1985 @2trill

The computers give the games the same weight. So, PAM’s game against Bellaire carries the same weight as LP’s game against Deer Park. That’s why it’s better to compare common opponents—especially when playing them back-to-back—so time isn’t as big an issue. I don’t think y’all want to get into a shootout. If the score starts getting into the 20’s for both teams, it doesn’t play to y’all’s advantage. For Massey to be correct, PAM would have to score twice their average, and LP would have to score less than half of their average. Strange things have happened in PAM/LP. But, that spread is probably more than a little off. I think PAM is gonna need TO’s to win. So far, they’ve been very opportunistic. LP has to take care of the ball.

2006, 2008, 2009. PAM's first ever win against La Porte was the 2011 playoff game. The Dawgs had also just beat PAM a month before when they won District again over y'all and North Shore. You were lucky to catch LP after they just came out of a brawl with Katy. La Porte still leads the overall series 8-6. La Porte leads the series against all Port Arthur teams 20-12. Don’t feel bad. Y’all even have Lufkin rooting for you. Maybe, between the 2 of y’all, you can find an offense. 😜 (LP’s still trying to find the D they lost a couple years ago…)

PAM vs LP playoff history: La Porte 56 PAM 27 La Porte 56 PAM 28 La Porte 42 PAM 21 La Porte 6 PAM 34 La Porte has outscored PAM 160-110 in their PO history. Keep holding onto that one win. 😁

The better comparison would be: PAM 33 ppg - 4 papg = differential of 29 ppg LP 52 ppg - 35 papg = differential of 17 ppg Basically, the game is as we all know. LP's O that's averaging 52 ppg vs PAM's D that's giving up 4 ppg. If you believe PAM can hold LP 20-30 points below their average, and still score their average of 33 against LP, you roll with PAM, and you're looking at a one score game. If you believe LP can hold PAM to their average of 33 or less, and only have to score 65% of their own average, you're looking at a one score game, and you roll with LP. PAM has only scored their average of 33 or above in one game at home against Ball. They scored 55. They scored 23 & 21 respectively in their other two contests. LP has scored 59, 52, and 45 for their average of 52 ppg. If you threw out—as an aberration—the highest scoring game from PAM & LP, PAM would average 22 ppg. LP would still average 49 ppg. PAM’s point differential would drop to 18. LP’s point differential would be 13. (The above numbers are from actual, common district opponents the two teams have played in consecutive weeks with LP playing them all first. PAM had 2 home games and 1 away game. La Porte had 2 away games and 1 home game. Obviously, they are just numbers, and don’t account for emotions of high school ball players, venues, etc.) I'm a big fan of an aggressive D. I love PAM's D. But, I also love LP's O & special teams. If I had my personal preference, I'd prefer the D. But, that's not what LP has this year. For many years prior to LaReau, LP was more of an offensive based team. They were still playing Stratford, Aldine, and the like (when only one school went to the PO's) for the right to go to the Semi's. So, it's not totally unheard of at LP--or unsuccessful--to have a greater emphasis on O. Just different to a lot of folks who weren't around then. Anyway, there’s an analytical breakdown of the match-up using real numbers.

I’m curious to see how LP handles the pressure of a big game. They have to take care of the ball. If they do, I’m not sure PAM’s O can keep up. People don’t realize that the Dawgs only have 3 or 4 Seniors starting combined between the O & D. Skill players- Wells (QB)- Jr. Simon (RB) - Jr. Smith (WR) - Jr. Dieudonne (RB) - Soph. Wallace (WR) - Fr. Wallace already has 6 D1 offers as a Frosh. So, double Smith (22 D1 offers) at your own risk. Of course, Simon still has his 28 D1 offers as well. Reynolds (TE) is the lone Senior. He’s committed to Pitt with a full ride.

[Hidden Content]

Both teams will focus on stopping the respective #21's. If they both do that, what are the other options for each offense? This will be key. If the Dawgs have some of their OL coming back off injury where they can sub throughout the game and stay fresh, it will be a big help against PAM's attacking D. LP hasn't had the same OL lineup since game 1. On the positive side, it's provided a lot of flexibility and experience. One advantage I see that LP has, is they can play this game multiple ways. If they choose to focus on the power run game with Simon (4 Star RB) & Dieudonne, they are capable of doing that, and running clock at a 3-4 ypc clip. If they decide to use the passing game more, they have Reynolds (D1 commit TE), Smith (4 Star WR), Wallace (D1 prospect WR), and Simon & Dieudonne out of the backfield. This will be the first team where PAM will actually have to cover the entire field, and not be able to double or crash. If they do, someone will be open, or a lane will be there. In 3 district games--with a total BU OL, Simon has carried for 545 yards at a 7.3 ypc average. BWB was the first game he's carried over 20 times. LP spreads the rushing load more this year since people key on Simon. Wells passed for 4 TD's against BWB with a 78% completion rate, and is averaging over 185 ypg through the air. He's accounted for 12 TD's (9 passing, 3 rushing) with no INT's on the year. As far as Special Teams, KO's are rarely returned against LP as they are 90-95% touchbacks. PAM has a large advantage in D scoring. But, the common opponent spreads between the teams are not much different. PAM scores less. But, gives up less. LP scores more. But, gives up more. I said way back in the summer that if you put PAM's D with LP's O and ST's, you could book a trip to Arlington. LP would probably be okay with a higher scoring game. PAM would probably prefer a game in the 20's. Field position will be key for both teams. TO's and penalties will be key as always. I expect the computers to favor PAM by a pretty wide margin. But, algorithms can't account for this rivalry. Something unexpected will happen in this game. It usually does.

I feel it every morning.

I thought you were a little late putting this up. 😜 Did you realize this year will be the 20th anniversary of our first meeting? LP leads the series 8-6, and 3-1 in the PO’s.