OlDawg

What's actually comical? I haven't heard a peep about the Paris Climate Agreement, Greta Thornberg, or the dreaded Climate Change. Seems everyone is too busy scrambling for oil. The Paris Climate Agreement appears to be about as solid as this MOU between Iran & the U.S.

Israel has every right to be defiant. They’re not our puppet. They’re a sovereign state. Iran is merely trying to drive a wedge. They’ve been trying for decades. It’s the only way they can eliminate Israel—their goal. Our people need to be smarter, and recognize that. Bring Pompeo back if you need to as an advisor. He knows whats going on.

There are 4 different pipelines that can handle about 50% of the current loads through Hormuz as they’re built out right now. (Don’t quote me on the 50%. But, I think that’s close.) These can be expanded. But, they’ll still be easy targets for disruption in a volatile region, and the ME politics always makes a kink in usage/transport deals between the States & countries. They’re being used now, and are part of the reason oil hasn’t jumped as much as people thought. There was talk of rail between Saudi, Israel, and up north after the Abraham Accords. But, I don’t know how the relations are between Israel & Saudi right now after Gaza. I don’t think they’re great. Land bridges are already being used to a small extent by MSC (the shipping magnate). They could be expanded, and MSC & others are looking at that. I believe only 10% or so ships via land right now. Building anything between areas in this region is tough. So, I couldn’t give you a timeframe. But, since Iran has shown their hand, I’d expect any build to be quicker than in the past. Let’s say 2-3 years-ish per bridge for the ENC part of it. Bridges aren’t that difficult, and there are very talented people in that region as well. They’re not uneducated dummies like some think. Other water routes are pretty shallow and dangerous for the supertankers. The major benefactor is the Americas. Our routes are safe, easily insurable, and dependable without stressing over constant conflicts. The distance is a little longer. But, this can be scheduled around. Another benefit is that our light, sweet WTI is the cheapest product to refine. America, Venezuela, Canada, and other producers will be the big winners.

Issue the U.S. has--I may/may not have mentioned previously--is that most of our refineries are set up to process heavy, sour crude. We haven't made the investments to be able to process our own WTI. That should be a priority, and would be a good use of incentive funding for national security purposes. Just get us to at least a 60/40 spit.

lol All joking aside, I pulled out gulf shrimp and bacon for shrimp & grits this evening for supper.

Just as an FYI, Cushing isn’t part of SPR.

I'm saying the MOU isn't an agreement that's binding in any fashion. It's nothing more than a 'pinkie promise.'

Personal opinion is the MOU won't hold. If it does, I've seen multiple MOU's that were vastly different than final agreements. Iran will attempt to dither until after November elections. We'll see if the Administration allows this game to be played. Two months will allow global oil reserves to be replenished enough for other action to occur, and actually receive more buy in from global players, and the American public--if the Administration educates them better. This Administration's communication skills stink. They'll have to do much better on that front.

Once started, the ceasefire was a disastrous idea. This could have been done by now with a much different ending. Trump received VERY bad advice. But, the buck stops with him. He said he's the 'Boss.' He makes it a point to be the BMOC. He owns it.

Wrong. JCPOA didn't have snap inspections of any sites, or destruction of existing enriched nuclear material. In fact, it included terms that required giving notice to Iran about upcoming inspections, and even allowed them to self report enrichment. JCPOA was a big, fat nothingburger. It's yet to be seen what this will turn into.

You won’t find any argument from me. But, this was a forgone conclusion as soon as the ceasefire was called. It’s been written on the wall since.

I’m amazed at all the criticisms/kudos for an agreement that doesn’t yet exist…

You knew it would see-saw hard & fast. I can’t recall an IPO in a long time that didn’t lose 50% of its value in the first year. Many have come back strong and stayed strong. You didn’t mention E*TRADE. That makes a difference on fees. Still the same for tax purposes. SpaceX is so different than other firms, I see it as more of a trade stock versus an investment stock for the shorter term. Long play, I think it definitely has legs. But, the mere nature of its business is high risk. Too risky for my taste as I’m already living on savings and investments. I was also worried about it being so dependent on the government and whatever Administration was in at the time. When reading the prospectus, 20% of it’s business was with the Feds.

At this stage in my life, I'm not really a growth investor any more. I'm more of a value/income/dividend player. But, if I had another 20 years where I really wanted a good growth stock, and SPCX dipped down to $115-$120/share, it would definitely be on my buy list.

Definitely tone deaf.