OlDawg

Let me consult Carnac.

IPO two days ago. Market cap now higher than Amazon, and it hasn't released a single fundamental to back up the share price. What could possibly go wrong? lol Gut tells me a whole lot of folks are going to be left holding the bag when institutions and hedge funds take massive profits before the little guys can get out. They're going to have to be disciplined enough to ride out the storm, and pray there's not a single launch issue.

Waffle House is the hurricane indicator. You know it’s really bad if Waffle House is closed. 😆

To me, one of the best things to happen out of this—besides no nuclear weapons for Iran if that actually gets done—is the realignment of energy across the globe. The Strait won’t be allowed to have as much impact in the future. Producers will find other outlets. Plus, the U.S. has been established as a reliable energy source without the headaches of the Middle East. We should now become one of—if not the—dominant energy producer/s in the world. Our supply lines are safe. Insurers will take note. Length of travel will not be as big an impediment if regularly scheduled shipments are undertaken by clients. This should bode well for energy investments, manufacturing, engineering, crafts and skills, and related high-paying jobs. Not to mention a boon to our resurgent steel industry.

Nope. Even if allowed—which the stock purchase contract may not allow in this case—you’d be selling short term. Meaning, you’d pay capital gains tax at your ‘normal’ tax rate. I’m assuming somewhere in the 20% effective tax rate range. Probably higher if you’re single with no dependents, and a decent banking job. That doesn’t count your buying fees. I don’t know your situation enough to know if you’d incur AMT. But, you’d take a loss. You need to sit on it and ride for at least one year to get it treated as a long-term capital gain, and get the lowest tax rate. Sorry to burst your bubble. You still bought a good, long-term investment. Just be prepared for a bumpy ride for a year or two until the first few reports come out, and serious investors can get a better handle on the numbers. The Starlink portion of the business is the profit-making side. Not the rockets. Right now, many are investing in the hype & Musk himself. If Musk were to suddenly not be in the picture, would you have bought the stock? I doubt if many investors would… That’s a scary proposition if you actually wanted to purchase more than just a few shares. The institutional buyers can dump a lot quicker than you can.

Even if not a soccer fan, the U.S. play on Friday was uplifting. Reading comments from foreign tourists about America is definitely a ‘feel-good’ mentality. The most poignant news take I read from a World Cup fan/tourist was something close to “If you follow the news, you hate America. If you travel around America, you love Americans.” The MOU with Iran is a positive, even though the deal isn’t finalized, and verification is paramount. The final deal may be tougher than the conflict itself. We’ll see. But, I sense a more upbeat feeling this morning. I ran to the store real quick for some milk before all the rain really hit hard. People seemed a lot more positive, and were smiling and talkative.

A week in the Middle East is an eternity. Let's be hopeful. But, not giddy. The Devil will be in the details. Those won't be finalized for another 60 days at minimum. You can rest assured Iran will delay as long as they're allowed, and still probably say they cant retrieve nuclear material because "it's buried." Iran has promised they weren't enriching for the last 40+ years. But, we know that was a lie.

I don't like using absolutes because they're typically wrong. But, I don't see oil going back down to pre-conflict levels again in the near--or ever--future. The climate change disaster hoax has been proven to be just that, by the UN Climate Committee of all groups, and the critical nature of oil has been shown to the entire world. Futures are showing a range in the high 70's long-term, and no lower. Every $10/bbl basically means $.25/gal for gasoline at the pump. Going by this, you can expect a settled gasoline range in the $3.20-$3.50 range in most States for the foreseeable future--AFTER a few months--as the currently loaded supplies reach the world's refineries. At this same time, countries will still be bidding against each other to refill their strategic reserves. So, the price won't drop like a rock. But, we should see less than $4.00 for the most part everywhere. A definite improvement.

Can smell 'em comin' a mile away. lol

Fail This guy also appears to be a real tool.

My bet would be that many--if not most--of the workers who became 'stock millionaires' overnight have no clue what happens if they decide to cash out within a year. Can anyone spell Capital Gains and/or AMT to the max? Elon would show how good of a boss he really was if he were to offer financial planning services as part of his employee bennies. THAT would really show his character. On a sidenote, I'd be curious how many of the employees who became stock millionaires are still willing to vote for AOC or Harris?

I think I’ll increase my holdings in P&G (Rolaids) and trade some of my Merck for Pfizer (Xanax). I should see a good bump for the next year or two.

Elizabeth Warren is having a coronary.

Sure am glad Core measurement strips out food prices because El Nino years are heck on food price inflation, and this is expected to be one of the worst El Nino years on record. The energy situation won't be sorted out for at least 6 months to a year, and food prices may be in jeopardy as well. The Fed isn't going to cut rates which means the economy won't get a boost (except maybe from AI), and the Fed may want a higher inflation level anyway as it helps with the debt. This is more than likely what Trump was referring to with his comment about inflation that people didn't think through what he was meaning, and he didn't explain. I think I'll stick to my personal thoughts on possible sticky inflation instead of listening to a political hack for my financial advice. [Hidden Content]