OlDawg

If a 60 day negotiation period is agreed upon, the Iranians will make sure to stretch negotiations right up until the 60th day. They are aware of things that many gullible Americans aren't. At the end of a 60 day negotiation period, U.S. crews, vessels, and aircraft will have been deployed on high alert status for almost 6 months. Efficiency levels for crews, and vessels begin to drop precipitously at that timeframe. That's why sea duty tours are typically no longer than 6 months for vessels other than submarines. Gremlins begin to appear in electronics and mechanical equipment. (Anyone who has owned a boat, and kept it docked in saltwater is aware.) Restocking needs to occur, and crews need regen time. If not, mistakes, accidents, and errors occur at a much greater instance even with the best crews. Basically, after almost 6 months at sea, it's NOT the time one would want to begin a major kinetic conflict. If the U.S. breaks off negotiations before the 60 day period is up, the U.S. will be the party seen as negotiating in bad faith. If the 60 day negotiations are allowed, the Iranians have ample time to prepare. After 60 days, the U.S. crews will not be at their optimum operating efficiencies. After 60 days, America--nor the rest of the world--will want to restart the conflict. I certainly hope Trump makes a fantastic deal with people who have never previously kept a deal because the U.S. will be the one without much leverage at the end of 60 days. The Iranian regime will still be financially viable via their crypto dealings that we are just now finding out about, and we have little means to police the activity. I doubt you'll hear any talking heads discussing these type issues. But, this isn't a video game. Things do break, need retrofits, and crews need rest.

Americans aren’t the only people in the world with social media capabilities.

I’ll roll back to this because it used to be required reading. Again, I don’t know if it is now or not. It doesn’t help much if our military still reads it, but our political leaders do not. Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Propaganda always has two sides.

Iran may be using crypto and our own debt to bypass sanctions to fund their war efforts. I’ve seen this before. But, it’s apparently becoming more concrete. [Hidden Content]

Out of curiosity, how many profiles did you create?

If he fails on this one, he will have set the ground rules himself. According to his own words, there was only one way he could win. Verify that Iran could never have a nuclear weapon. Everyone else before him failed according to him. What will he say about his own effort? I’ll be curious to see if he’ll have learned anything. But, we’ll see. I really do hope for the best. But, any agreement with this regime is pretty much worthless IMHO. (And almost anyone else that’s ever had dealings.) They will be emboldened.

We’ll see what any agreement says. But, I don’t believe your premise of setting their nuclear program back decades. That song has been sung before, and it was out of tune the first time. Trump made three major mistakes. First one is a character flaw that he has in general: hubris. Second, he forgot that Israel is a ‘frienemy’—not a friend. Third, he set the rules of engagement before ever starting of no boots on the ground, and was foolish enough to think that would work. As usual, our politicians haven’t been all-in for a long time. I said before, our politicians cause us to lose. Not our military. He will blame NATO, and everyone else under the sun as he begins to be questioned. But, it will be his failure. No one else’s. Anyone that tries to defend him will just be using spin. His foolishness will harm America for a long time, and he’ll have no leg to stand on about Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. He’ll have made America look like the only thing we can handle are 2 bit dictators from 3rd world countries. If Iran agrees to turn over all uranium, and allow inspections, I’ll change my tune. But, I don’t see it happening. I see him coming out and making a big toodoo about a pinkie promise Iran’s made to not enrich for 20 years. He’ll call that success. 13 Service members will have given their lives with multiple more injured all for his hubris and Israel’s manipulations, and there will be nothing verifiable to show for it to call it a success. I was concerned about this operation—under his control—from the very beginning.

If Trump signs the rumored peace deal with Iran that doesn’t include full release of all nuclear material, and IAEA unfettered inspections for the foreseeable future, there will be winners and losers as follows: Winners (in order): Iran, the IRGC, radical Islamists, general terrorists everywhere, American service members, civilians in the war zone, China, Russia, and N.Korea Losers (in order): Israel, Trump, Netanyahu, AIPAC, America’s standing, U.S. taxpayers, NATO, and Ukraine

The U.S. isn't going to defend Taiwan from China when it decides to assimilate Taiwan any more than Russia or China would protect Cuba from the U.S. Simple geography makes them both losing propositions.

According to the article in the WSJ I posted above, Senate Republicans have—apparently—finally had enough.

Many older folks (not the only ones, but more susceptible) are easily fooled by AI. AIPAC aligned ads falsely portrayed Massie in numerous ways. They didn’t vote for Gallrein because they knew what he stood for because they never even heard him debate or campaign. He was an unknown who said he would do whatever Trump wanted, and reinstate the draft. Yes. Money made a big difference.

The voters that voted for Gallrein didn’t care that he wanted to bring back the draft. They didn’t care he was a rubber stamp for Trump. The majority of Gallrein’s voters were white, 56+, and fairly well off financially. Everyone under 56 went big for Massie. With the demographics in KY-4, 56 and unders outnumber those 56 and above. That tells me the Boomers turned out to vote, and the younger crowd didn’t. Incidentally, other articles point out that older folks are the only group that still believes the U.S. should always aid, support, and believe Israel unconditionally. Younger folks are a little more skeptical. [Hidden Content]

Good WSJ article about tension between Senate Republicans and the White House. [Hidden Content]

Regardless of our assistance, and the IDF's tech, they still only field manpower of around 660,000. Iran fields manpower of almost 1.2 Million. Israel can't commit the entire strength of the IDF manpower to Iran. That would leave them open to their north. They can't do it alone. Interesting numbers for those interested. I can guarantee our folks are aware of this information. Problem is, I think Iran's resolve was severely underestimated. You can't negotiate with crazy. (You can select from various different categories and countries.) Global Firepower - 2026 World Military Strength Rankings EDIT: A side-by-side comparison between Israel and Iran from the above link. [Hidden Content]