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*HURRICANE IKE AFTERMATH AND COMMENTS*


KFDM COOP

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The projected path of a storm can change a lot in a little bit of time.

Check out Rita's:

This is the hidden content, please

:o

EXACTLY!!!

Just curious....

A Cat 3 going into Matagorda...

Would they evacuate Galveston?

Seems like they would.

I believe if Galveston evacuates, Dayton ISD shuts down due to the confluence of HWY evacuation routes.

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I can't answer for him, but I work on the print side of the media. Anywhere close, and yes.

This storm would have to be well south and no error for a north turn for them not to call it.

And dealing with a trough, I personally think they will pull the trigger. Rather be safe than sorry.

Also, models will show a more southern shift tonight. Let's see if that trend sticks into tomorrow and wednesday because some are thinking it will begin shifting back up the coast.

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AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON

THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE

WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND

JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE

AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN

3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS

DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF

COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ITS

ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE

STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT

WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO

INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  I AM

FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM

THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT

HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS

A GLOBAL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD

FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH

OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE

OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST

POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/0300Z 21.8N  80.8W    70 KT

12HR VT    09/1200Z 22.4N  82.3W    80 KT

24HR VT    10/0000Z 23.2N  84.0W    85 KT

36HR VT    10/1200Z 24.0N  85.7W    90 KT

48HR VT    11/0000Z 24.8N  87.2W    95 KT

72HR VT    12/0000Z 26.0N  91.0W  100 KT

96HR VT    13/0000Z 27.0N  94.5W  100 KT

120HR VT    14/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W    95 KT...INLAND

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WOW!!... we could only be so lucky for it to end up way down there

The Wunderground models are pretty encouraging too. The GFS model in particular has it hitting somewhere around the Texas/Mexico Border. I know everyone is shell shocked still from Rita, but storms have been coming in South of us for as long as storms have been tracked. Plus, this one is coming in from much further South than Rita did. Also, there were different weather circumstances when Rita hit.

...and no, I'm no Weatherman, I just play one because I live on the Texas Gulf Coast... ::)

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