Enrollment Figures Released

[AggiesAreWe]

Just now, lionpride08 said:

have you thought about what most schools cut offs would be? 3ad2/3ad1 ect? 525 seems like a good number imo

Just going off what few projections I have been privy to.

With 6A looking like it will drop from 2275 to somewhere around 2205-2225, then one has to think other cutoffs will drop as much as 40-60 across the board.

With 70% of all Texas schools having a decline in enrollment, the cutoff numbers have to drop some. How much they drop is the big question.

It all starts with 6A. UIL always wants 6A to have at least 245 schools. Most times it's around 250. With the numbers out, if they were to use the same cutoff as last realignment (2275) then 6A would only have about 220 schools. So therefore they will have to drop the cutoff in order to get the preferred 245-250.

This will cause a trickle down effect for the other cutoffs.

But to answer your question, I would guess that the 3A DI/DII cutoff would be somewhere at 345-350.

[lionpride08]

9 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Just going off what few projections I have been privy to.

With 6A looking like it will drop from 2275 to somewhere around 2205-2225, then one has to think other cutoffs will drop as much as 40-60 across the board.

With 70% of all Texas schools having a decline in enrollment, the cutoff numbers have to drop some. How much they drop is the big question.

It all starts with 6A. UIL always wants 6A to have at least 245 schools. Most times it's around 250. With the numbers out, if they were to use the same cutoff as last realignment (2275) then 6A would only have about 220 schools. So therefore they will have to drop the cutoff in order to get the preferred 245-250.

This will cause a trickle down effect for the other cutoffs.

But to answer your question, I would guess that the 3A DI/DII cutoff would be somewhere at 345-350.

That was my thinking as well.... Moving up teams like Woodville, Holliday, ect from 3ad2 and moving teams like Orangefield up from 3ad1 to 4ad2 and keeping sinton 4ad2 for this next realignment.

[Separation Scientist]

20 hours ago, bullets13 said:

If DCTF predictions are correct they're going to be a very polarized district. I think they can make the playoffs, though. Just might take a couple of 50-pt beatdowns along the way.

BH Would likely be the overall third place team, and be the districts top seed in the 6A-ll bracket. BH can certainly live with that. 

[HarryDoyle]

1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Just going off what few projections I have been privy to.

With 6A looking like it will drop from 2275 to somewhere around 2205-2225, then one has to think other cutoffs will drop as much as 40-60 across the board.

With 70% of all Texas schools having a decline in enrollment, the cutoff numbers have to drop some. How much they drop is the big question.

It all starts with 6A. UIL always wants 6A to have at least 245 schools. Most times it's around 250. With the numbers out, if they were to use the same cutoff as last realignment (2275) then 6A would only have about 220 schools. So therefore they will have to drop the cutoff in order to get the preferred 245-250.

This will cause a trickle down effect for the other cutoffs.

But to answer your question, I would guess that the 3A DI/DII cutoff would be somewhere at 345-350.

If that number does drop 40-60 how does that look to effect any schools in our area on the bubble of 3A/4A and 4A/5A?

[AggiesAreWe]

5 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

If that number does drop 40-60 how does that look to effect any schools in our area on the bubble of 3A/4A and 4A/5A?

Right off the top of my head it would have Orangefield move up to 4A and Tarkington stay 4A.

Looks like none of our coverage area 4A's have any real chance of moving up to 5A.

[HarryDoyle]

How close will Jasper be to 3A, it looked like they turned in maybe their lowest ever.

[AggiesAreWe]

3 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

How close will Jasper be to 3A, it looked like they turned in maybe their lowest ever.

582 will safely stay 4A.

[DukeS]

23 hours ago, bullets13 said:

without discussing specific schools, I believe that any school in the state that opts up for football should have to opt up in all sports. Since "travel" is the issue, that's an issue for all sports, not just one. It would be fun watching the administration then try and explain to the community why opting up for an easier football district is worth the majority of the other sports programs suffering. 

Travel is not always an issue across all sports because the districts are different. Look at the PNG/Ned football district compared to baseball. The baseball district has less travel. 

[bullets13]

8-5A D1 projected district from DCTF is fun. Spring Westfield, New Caney, Lufkin, Crosby, West Brook, BMT United, Baytown Sterling, Goose Creem Memorial, Port Arthur Memorial.

[bullets13]

2 minutes ago, DukeS said:

Travel is not always an issue across all sports because the districts are different. Look at the PNG/Ned football district compared to baseball. The baseball district has less travel. 

Sometimes, except we already know the "travel" that certain teams have foregone around here. Opting up for "travel" when you never had more than an hour drive to an opponent isn't convincing. 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

24 minutes ago, bullets13 said:

8-5A D1 projected district from DCTF is fun. Spring Westfield, New Caney, Lufkin, Crosby, West Brook, BMT United, Baytown Sterling, Goose Creem Memorial, Port Arthur Memorial.

It sucks. Region 2, smdh. Imma need Stepp to correct his mock a bit. 🤦🏾‍♂️

[navydawg31]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

It sucks. Region 2, smdh. Imma need Stepp to correct his mock a bit. 🤦🏾‍♂️

WOW… I’m starting to think UIL doesn’t like the Golden Triangle… lol

[navydawg31]

37 minutes ago, DukeS said:

Travel is not always an issue across all sports because the districts are different. Look at the PNG/Ned football district compared to baseball. The baseball district has less travel. 

Ehh I saw a mock for non football district and it was horrible for travel wise… that close travel went out the window with Barbers Hill, WB moving up on that mock. 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

2 minutes ago, navydawg31 said:

WOW… I’m starting to think UIL doesn’t like the Golden Triangle… lol

That's his mock. 

[Separation Scientist]

Breathe, people. The UIL will surprise everyone. These are just guesses at this point.   

[AggiesAreWe]

3 minutes ago, Separation Scientist said:

Breathe, people. The UIL will surprise everyone. These are just guesses at this point.   

Exactly.

But some very educated and databased guesses.