Enrollment Figures Released

[AggiesAreWe]

Just now, lionpride08 said:

have you thought about what most schools cut offs would be? 3ad2/3ad1 ect? 525 seems like a good number imo

Just going off what few projections I have been privy to.

With 6A looking like it will drop from 2275 to somewhere around 2205-2225, then one has to think other cutoffs will drop as much as 40-60 across the board.

With 70% of all Texas schools having a decline in enrollment, the cutoff numbers have to drop some. How much they drop is the big question.

It all starts with 6A. UIL always wants 6A to have at least 245 schools. Most times it's around 250. With the numbers out, if they were to use the same cutoff as last realignment (2275) then 6A would only have about 220 schools. So therefore they will have to drop the cutoff in order to get the preferred 245-250.

This will cause a trickle down effect for the other cutoffs.

But to answer your question, I would guess that the 3A DI/DII cutoff would be somewhere at 345-350.

[lionpride08]

9 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Just going off what few projections I have been privy to.

With 6A looking like it will drop from 2275 to somewhere around 2205-2225, then one has to think other cutoffs will drop as much as 40-60 across the board.

With 70% of all Texas schools having a decline in enrollment, the cutoff numbers have to drop some. How much they drop is the big question.

It all starts with 6A. UIL always wants 6A to have at least 245 schools. Most times it's around 250. With the numbers out, if they were to use the same cutoff as last realignment (2275) then 6A would only have about 220 schools. So therefore they will have to drop the cutoff in order to get the preferred 245-250.

This will cause a trickle down effect for the other cutoffs.

But to answer your question, I would guess that the 3A DI/DII cutoff would be somewhere at 345-350.

That was my thinking as well.... Moving up teams like Woodville, Holliday, ect from 3ad2 and moving teams like Orangefield up from 3ad1 to 4ad2 and keeping sinton 4ad2 for this next realignment.

[Separation Scientist]

20 hours ago, bullets13 said:

If DCTF predictions are correct they're going to be a very polarized district. I think they can make the playoffs, though. Just might take a couple of 50-pt beatdowns along the way.

BH Would likely be the overall third place team, and be the districts top seed in the 6A-ll bracket. BH can certainly live with that. 

[HarryDoyle]

1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Just going off what few projections I have been privy to.

With 6A looking like it will drop from 2275 to somewhere around 2205-2225, then one has to think other cutoffs will drop as much as 40-60 across the board.

With 70% of all Texas schools having a decline in enrollment, the cutoff numbers have to drop some. How much they drop is the big question.

It all starts with 6A. UIL always wants 6A to have at least 245 schools. Most times it's around 250. With the numbers out, if they were to use the same cutoff as last realignment (2275) then 6A would only have about 220 schools. So therefore they will have to drop the cutoff in order to get the preferred 245-250.

This will cause a trickle down effect for the other cutoffs.

But to answer your question, I would guess that the 3A DI/DII cutoff would be somewhere at 345-350.

If that number does drop 40-60 how does that look to effect any schools in our area on the bubble of 3A/4A and 4A/5A?

[AggiesAreWe]

5 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

If that number does drop 40-60 how does that look to effect any schools in our area on the bubble of 3A/4A and 4A/5A?

Right off the top of my head it would have Orangefield move up to 4A and Tarkington stay 4A.

Looks like none of our coverage area 4A's have any real chance of moving up to 5A.

[HarryDoyle]

How close will Jasper be to 3A, it looked like they turned in maybe their lowest ever.

[AggiesAreWe]

3 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

How close will Jasper be to 3A, it looked like they turned in maybe their lowest ever.

582 will safely stay 4A.