From a AI search. How the betting market sees it as of right now:
Prediction markets like Kalshi currently price Paxton as the slight favorite in a head-to-head runoff, with about 55% chance to win vs. 45% for Cornyn. This isn’t a massive edge, but it shows bettors see Paxton having the momentum going into May.
Runoff electorate is smaller and more conservative: Bettors are pricing in the idea that GOP runoffs — especially in Texas — tend to draw a more ideologically right, activist base than the broader primary. Paxton’s alignment with that base boosts his odds.
Wesley Hunt voters: How Hunt’s supporters break in the runoff could tilt the race. Polling suggests they lean slightly in Paxton’s direction, but it isn’t unanimous.