Jump to content

Week-7 Port Arthur Memorial at La Porte Predictions

Mr. Buddy Garrity

By Mr. Buddy Garrity
in High School Football

 Share

Who wins?  

22 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?

    • Port Arthur Memorial
      19
    • La Porte
      3
  • Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.
  • Poll closes on 10/09/2026 at 11:00 PM

Recommended Posts

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Old rivals meet again. 😈 

 

This may very well end up being the district championship game PT-1. 

I thought you were a little late putting this up. 😜

Did you realize this year will be the 20th anniversary of our first meeting?

LP leads the series 8-6, and 3-1 in the PO’s.

Mr. Buddy Garrity

Mr. Buddy Garrity

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Hard to give a solid prediction when one doesn't know what the QB situation is, but I'll go +8 Titans. 🤞🏾 Defense travels. 

 

I reckon LP will want to get their QB rolling out some in this one and maybe dial up more QB runs than ppl are accustomed to seeing. 

 

Memorial WRs need to catch wide open passes, help the QB whoever it may be. 

 

Special Teams IMO will be the deciding factor in this one. 

1970

1970

Posted
Posted

I waffled a bit on this one, but PAM, I think, in another close one.  The young man that ran that 97 yard sprint from scrimmage against Westbrook last Friday will be the big difference. 

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted

Both teams will focus on stopping the respective #21's. If they both do that, what are the other options for each offense? This will be key. If the Dawgs have some of their OL coming back off injury where they can sub throughout the game and stay fresh, it will be a big help against PAM's attacking D. LP hasn't had the same OL lineup since game 1. On the positive side, it's provided a lot of flexibility and experience.

One advantage I see that LP has, is they can play this game multiple ways. If they choose to focus on the power run game with Simon (4 Star RB) & Dieudonne, they are capable of doing that, and running clock at a 3-4 ypc clip. If they decide to use the passing game more, they have Reynolds (D1 commit TE), Smith (4 Star WR), Wallace (D1 prospect WR), and Simon & Dieudonne out of the backfield. This will be the first team where PAM will actually have to cover the entire field, and not be able to double or crash. If they do, someone will be open, or a lane will be there.

In 3 district games--with a total BU OL, Simon has carried for 545 yards at a 7.3 ypc average. BWB was the first game he's carried over 20 times. LP spreads the rushing load more this year since people key on Simon. Wells passed for 4 TD's against BWB with a 78% completion rate, and is averaging over 185 ypg through the air. He's accounted for 12 TD's (9 passing, 3 rushing) with no INT's on the year.

As far as Special Teams, KO's are rarely returned against LP as they are 90-95% touchbacks.

PAM has a large advantage in D scoring. But, the common opponent spreads between the teams are not much different. PAM scores less. But, gives up less. LP scores more. But, gives up more.

I said way back in the summer that if you put PAM's D with LP's O and ST's, you could book a trip to Arlington.

LP would probably be okay with a higher scoring game. PAM would probably prefer a game in the 20's. Field position will be key for both teams. TO's and penalties will be key as always.

I expect the computers to favor PAM by a pretty wide margin. But, algorithms can't account for this rivalry. Something unexpected will happen in this game. It usually does.

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, 1970 said:

I waffled a bit on this one, but PAM, I think, in another close one.  The young man that ran that 97 yard sprint from scrimmage against Westbrook last Friday will be the big difference. 

I’m curious to see how LP handles the pressure of a big game. They have to take care of the ball. If they do, I’m not sure PAM’s O can keep up. People don’t realize that the Dawgs only have 3 or 4 Seniors starting combined between the O & D.

Skill players-

  • Wells (QB)- Jr.
  • Simon (RB) - Jr.
  • Smith (WR) - Jr.
  • Dieudonne (RB) - Soph.
  • Wallace (WR) - Fr.

Wallace already has 6 D1 offers as a Frosh. So, double Smith (22 D1 offers) at your own risk. Of course, Simon still has his 28 D1 offers as well.

Reynolds (TE) is the lone Senior. He’s committed to Pitt with a full ride.

 

1970

1970

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OlDawg said:

I’m curious to see how LP handles the pressure of a big game. They have to take care of the ball. If they do, I’m not sure PAM’s O can keep up. People don’t realize that the Dawgs only have 3 or 4 Seniors starting combined between the O & D.

Skill players-

  • Wells (QB)- Jr.
  • Simon (RB) - Jr.
  • Smith (WR) - Jr.
  • Dieudonne (RB) - Soph.
  • Wallace (WR) - Fr.

Wallace already has 6 D1 offers as a Frosh. So, double Smith (22 D1 offers) at your own risk. Of course, Simon still has his 28 D1 offers as well.

Reynolds (TE) is the lone Senior. He’s committed to Pitt with a full ride.

 

I hear ya.  Especially wrt Simon.  I guess we'll see how it plays out; should be a great game, and I plan to keep up with it along with a few others this week.  

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Austin1985 said:

Lp this

Lp that

All I can see is one team gives up 39.8 ppg

and the other gives up 9.6

The 1st round shock last year may have been the beginning of a trend.....

 

The better comparison would be:

  • PAM 33 ppg - 4 papg = differential of 29 ppg
  • LP 52 ppg - 35 papg = differential of 17 ppg

Basically, the game is as we all know. LP's O that's averaging 52 ppg vs PAM's D that's giving up 4 ppg. If you believe PAM can hold LP 20-30 points below their average, and still score their average of 33 against LP, you roll with PAM, and you're looking at a one score game. If you believe LP can hold PAM to their average of 33 or less, and only have to score 65% of their own average, you're looking at a one score game, and you roll with LP.

PAM has only scored their average of 33 or above in one game at home against Ball. They scored 55. They scored 23 & 21 respectively in their other two contests. LP has scored 59, 52, and 45 for their average of 52 ppg. If you threw out—as an aberration—the highest scoring game from PAM & LP, PAM would average 22 ppg. LP would still average 49 ppg. PAM’s point differential would drop to 18. LP’s point differential would be 13.

(The above numbers are from actual, common district opponents the two teams have played in consecutive weeks with LP playing them all first. PAM had 2 home games and 1 away game. La Porte had 2 away games and 1 home game. Obviously, they are just numbers, and don’t account for emotions of high school ball players, venues, etc.)

I'm a big fan of an aggressive D. I love PAM's D. But, I also love LP's O & special teams. If I had my personal preference, I'd prefer the D. But, that's not what LP has this year. For many years prior to LaReau, LP was more of an offensive based team. They were still playing Stratford, Aldine, and the like (when only one school went to the PO's) for the right to go to the Semi's. So, it's not totally unheard of at LP--or unsuccessful--to have a greater emphasis on O. Just different to a lot of folks who weren't around then.

Anyway, there’s an analytical breakdown of the match-up using real numbers.

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, 2trill said:

 

PAM vs LP playoff history:

La Porte 56     PAM 27

La Porte 56     PAM 28

La Porte 42     PAM 21

La Porte 6      PAM 34

La Porte has outscored PAM 160-110 in their PO history. Keep holding onto that one win. 😁

2trill

2trill

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, OlDawg said:

PAM vs LP playoff history:

La Porte 56     PAM 27

La Porte 56     PAM 28

La Porte 42     PAM 21

La Porte 6      PAM 34

La Porte has outscored PAM 160-110 in their PO history. Keep holding onto that one win. 😁

How long ago was them wins I don’t remember that

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, 2trill said:

How long ago was them wins I don’t remember that

2006, 2008, 2009. PAM's first ever win against La Porte was the 2011 playoff game. The Dawgs had also just beat PAM a month before when they won District again over y'all and North Shore. You were lucky to catch LP after they just came out of a brawl with Katy. La Porte still leads the overall series 8-6. La Porte leads the series against all Port Arthur teams 20-12.

Don’t feel bad. Y’all even have Lufkin rooting for you. Maybe, between the 2 of y’all, you can find an offense. 😜

(LP’s still trying to find the D they lost a couple years ago…)

OlDawg

OlDawg

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 2trill said:

I wish we can score that many points and Ip wish they could score that many as well 

The computers give the games the same weight. So, PAM’s game against Bellaire carries the same weight as LP’s game against Deer Park. That’s why it’s better to compare common opponents—especially when playing them back-to-back—so time isn’t as big an issue.

I don’t think y’all want to get into a shootout. If the score starts getting into the 20’s for both teams, it doesn’t play to y’all’s advantage.

For Massey to be correct, PAM would have to score twice their average, and LP would have to score less than half of their average.

Strange things have happened in PAM/LP. But, that spread is probably more than a little off.

I think PAM is gonna need TO’s to win. So far, they’ve been very opportunistic. LP has to take care of the ball.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Member Statistics

    46,970
    Total Members
    1,837
    Most Online
    NETSN
    Newest Member
    NETSN
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...