Guest GoStangs Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vp93 Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 Isn't that close to the track that Rita took? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 i believe Rita was a westward not a wnw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 Rita was moving west then turned NW as ridge weakened. We'll have to start watching this close as forecast track keeps it moving through the Florida Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 I don't like this latest track!!! :shock: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 When does the plane go in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 In there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GoStangs Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 Isn't that close to the track that Rita took? Here's Rita's track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest etbu Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 Goes into Fla and comes out? Big as Rita? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 Could be with the water as warm as it is!! We'll know alot more by the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bulldogbark Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 that bad boy needs to make a drastic turn to the west...I do not want my electricity to go out as hot as it is now. ok so I am spoiled now...we could use the rain here but nothing else :evil: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 1, 2006 Report Share Posted August 1, 2006 The top map from the NHC updates every 6 hours or so. Next one will be at 10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GoStangs Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 What's up with the "AccuWeather" picture? It has a projected landfall of between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Florida panhandle.... Basically, the entire western Gulf is in the target. :? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Cone of uncertainy! None of the computer models even really have it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GoStangs Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 The Cone of Uncertainy? :shock: Not to make fun of something this serious, but that really sounds like something off the show "Get Smart!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GoStangs Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I went ahead and put a map of the computer models under the other maps at the top of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Thanks. I've been looking at models the last hour or so. Just hard to say this far out. The one you put up, the northern track seems alot more reasonable than the southern tracks due to it's location right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Here we go again :roll: Better start calling my relatives in the North. :cry: There is no way Orange can take another Hurricane!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 I hear you. Still to early to say where? Mid Texas Coast would be my first guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bread Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 So what would we get from that if it hit mid texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 So what would we get from that if it hit mid texas? probably nothing at all. Maybe some rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Depends on how big it is in size? Right now it is small. We'll see what happens the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 Depends on how big it is in size? Right now it is small. We'll see what happens the next few days. Its quite funny, I've read four different sites, and they all say different things about this storm. Coop, what do yall REALLY get paid for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kicker Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 hey Coop, paste another one of those"gibberish" outlooks yall get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted August 2, 2006 Report Share Posted August 2, 2006 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006 DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL. LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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