Week-7 Port Arthur Memorial at La Porte Predictions

[Austin1985]

18 hours ago, OlDawg said:

The better comparison would be:

• PAM 33 ppg - 4 papg = differential of 29 ppg
• LP 52 ppg - 35 papg = differential of 17 ppg

Basically, the game is as we all know. LP's O that's averaging 52 ppg vs PAM's D that's giving up 4 ppg. If you believe PAM can hold LP 20-30 points below their average, and still score their average of 33 against LP, you roll with PAM, and you're looking at a one score game. If you believe LP can hold PAM to their average of 33 or less, and only have to score 65% of their own average, you're looking at a one score game, and you roll with LP.

PAM has only scored their average of 33 or above in one game at home against Ball. They scored 55. They scored 23 & 21 respectively in their other two contests. LP has scored 59, 52, and 45 for their average of 52 ppg. If you threw out—as an aberration—the highest scoring game from PAM & LP, PAM would average 22 ppg. LP would still average 49 ppg. PAM’s point differential would drop to 18. LP’s point differential would be 13.

(The above numbers are from actual, common district opponents the two teams have played in consecutive weeks with LP playing them all first. PAM had 2 home games and 1 away game. La Porte had 2 away games and 1 home game. Obviously, they are just numbers, and don’t account for emotions of high school ball players, venues, etc.)

I'm a big fan of an aggressive D. I love PAM's D. But, I also love LP's O & special teams. If I had my personal preference, I'd prefer the D. But, that's not what LP has this year. For many years prior to LaReau, LP was more of an offensive based team. They were still playing Stratford, Aldine, and the like (when only one school went to the PO's) for the right to go to the Semi's. So, it's not totally unheard of at LP--or unsuccessful--to have a greater emphasis on O. Just different to a lot of folks who weren't around then.

Anyway, there’s an analytical breakdown of the match-up using real numbers.

You can't mansplain giving up 39.9 ppg to me by using advance mathematics.  

[OlDawg]

54 minutes ago, Austin1985 said:

You can't mansplain giving up 39.9 ppg to me by using advance mathematics.  

If you’re coming, be safe and enjoy the stadium. If you come early and want some real pregame TexMex, hit up El Ranchero on Main St.

I recommend the Tommy Tacos. I get the 3 taco plate. You can ask for charros with any meal instead of refried if you prefer them. They’re excellent.

There’s extra parking in the back.

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[OlDawg]

1 hour ago, Austin1985 said:

You can't mansplain giving up 39.9 ppg to me by using advance mathematics.  

How do you explain only scoring 23 against GCM when RSS scored 28? How about BWB? It was only 7-0 very late until a tipped Bruin pass in the end zone changed momentum. 7 points?

#4 in the State? Really? Randle will eat all our lunches & make us pay them for our lunchboxes as they leave.

[2trill]

2 hours ago, OlDawg said:

PAM fans—

What’s going on over there? Y’all don’t have a Freshman team. LP had to find entirely new opponents this week for a game.

LP’s two freshman squads are having to go to Tomas HS & Hightower to play this week.

@Mr. Buddy Garrity @Austin1985 @2trill

House bill

[2trill]

54 minutes ago, OlDawg said:

How do you explain only scoring 23 against GCM when RSS scored 28? How about BWB? It was only 7-0 very late until a tipped Bruin pass in the end zone changed momentum. 7 points?

#4 in the State? Really? Randle will eat all our lunches & make us pay them for our lunchboxes as they leave.

How and Randle only beat a unranked Westfield by 3 

[OlDawg]

13 minutes ago, 2trill said:

House bill

What do you mean? We razz each other on here. But, I thought things were going well. Didn’t y’all just pass a bond for a new stadium and all? I thought excitement would be big over there right now.

[PackAttack]

2 hours ago, OlDawg said:

PAM fans—

What’s going on over there? Y’all don’t have a Freshman team. LP had to find entirely new opponents this week for a game.

LP’s two freshman squads are having to go to Tomas HS & Hightower to play this week.

@Mr. Buddy Garrity @Austin1985 @2trill

PAM only had the one Fresh team when our Fresh A played them, they only suited up 27 players.  Our Fresh B squad had to play Carthage Fresh A squad that day.

[2trill]

1 hour ago, OlDawg said:

What do you mean? We razz each other on here. But, I thought things were going well. Didn’t y’all just pass a bond for a new stadium and all? I thought excitement would be big over there right now.

 No pass no play I’m talking about 

[OlDawg]

4 minutes ago, 2trill said:

 No pass no play I’m talking about 

Gotcha

[Austin1985]

4 hours ago, OlDawg said:

How do you explain only scoring 23 against GCM when RSS scored 28? How about BWB? It was only 7-0 very late until a tipped Bruin pass in the end zone changed momentum. 7 points?

#4 in the State? Really? Randle will eat all our lunches & make us pay them for our lunchboxes as they leave.

I see you argument and raise you that I know damn well PA isn't #4.  I wish they wasn't even ranked.  It's only because of Desoto and HP among others losing early.  As for the offensive out put, I'd take PA's point differential over LP's any day.  As for Randle, if PA can get to the 4th round after replacing, and let me say this again, 9 starters on offense, is and outstanding accomplishment imo

[OlDawg]

1 hour ago, Austin1985 said:

I see you argument and raise you that I know damn well PA isn't #4.  I wish they wasn't even ranked.  It's only because of Desoto and HP among others losing early.  As for the offensive out put, I'd take PA's point differential over LP's any day.  As for Randle, if PA can get to the 4th round after replacing, and let me say this again, 9 starters on offense, is and outstanding accomplishment imo

PAM’s typical point differential against common opponents is 18. LP’s is 13. Five points.

I’m a fan of an attacking D. That’s why some LP folks were nervous about last year, and are nervous about this year’s team. We’re not used to DFW style football. Since we lost our DC to Shadow Creek, our D has been questionable at best. How much effect the loss has had, I can’t say for sure. I’m not involved with the program.

But, the margins of victory aren’t far apart at all when you compare common opponents. They just come from different styles.

Unless TO’s play a big role, and both teams play to average, this should be a one score game or less. If PAM doesn’t get any TO’s, your scoring average goes WAY down. PAM has been living off TO’s. LP hasn’t gotten many TO’s this year. (That’s part of the D issue.) So, if they don’t get any TO’s, it doesn’t affect their scoring average much at all.

Yes. 4th round would be an accomplishment. As I’ve said, LP only has 3 or 4 starting Seniors between both the O & D. If the transfer portal doesn’t hit hard, next year would appear to be the next peak year for LP. LP’s been playing with a BU OL since game 1. Those players will be experienced next year. Plus, all the skill players would return except for the TE, and most of the D would return—with a year of experience and growth under their belt.

If y’all are gonna try to make the series closer, this year is probably a better bet than next year.

EDIT: I put the link to El Ranchero in the earlier post after you liked it if you want to check it out. I’d love to meet with y’all pregame as I haven’t seen some of y’all in years—from a past life when we all used to pregame together with some NS, Katy, and other fan bases. But, my better half requires 24/7/365 care now. So, I don’t get to go to games any more. I have to watch streams.

[pakronos]

12 hours ago, OlDawg said:

PAM vs LP playoff history:

La Porte 56     PAM 27

La Porte 56     PAM 28

La Porte 42     PAM 21

La Porte 6      PAM 34

La Porte has outscored PAM 160-110 in their PO history. Keep holding onto that one win. 😁

Yeah? Those LaPorte teams of the past were special because they played in a district to where it was tough with north shore being involved and a couple of others. The Laporte teams of recent years has played in a very soft district and imo making the superstars LOOK. good. IMO PAM keeps PAM from winning this. I think Brook improved a lot defensively since playing png. With that said LO recently went to the wire dealing with a Brook offense, imo just don’t have enough dawgs except the qb. LP STRUGGLED against the doormat of the district for a half a game with ball. Who if not more inexperienced as LP. I just don’t think they are good as they projected. Maybe they will prove me wrong, but I say 28-14 PAM. I feel this week, we might see the playbook open up a little more.

[pakronos]

6 hours ago, OlDawg said:

How do you explain only scoring 23 against GCM when RSS scored 28? How about BWB? It was only 7-0 very late until a tipped Bruin pass in the end zone changed momentum. 7 points?

#4 in the State? Really? Randle will eat all our lunches & make us pay them for our lunchboxes as they leave.

Explain struggling against Ball at half? Explain letting Brook anemic offense score over 40pts.

[pakronos]

5 hours ago, 2trill said:

How and Randle only beat a unranked Westfield by 3 

Exactly . And looking at the people Tandle played with those high scores, it’s like PAM beating up Pasadena schools… like LaPorte was doing

[pakronos]

5 hours ago, OlDawg said:

What do you mean? We razz each other on here. But, I thought things were going well. Didn’t y’all just pass a bond for a new stadium and all? I thought excitement would be big over there right now.

The district is changing. I say in 5 years, PAISD might be an 85-90 percent district of Hispanics who don’t care to play football 

[pakronos]

Gringos in Deer Park is where I will be dining

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

☕ 

 

3 more wake-ups 😈 

[OlDawg]

9 hours ago, pakronos said:

Gringos in Deer Park is where I will be dining

You’d be lost then. Gringos is in La Porte. If you like Gringo’s, El-Toro is closer to the stadium, and is the same food. It’s the family’s original restaurant. Gringo’s, El-Toro, Johnny Tamales,  and Jimmy Changas are all the same food & owned by the same family I went to school with at LP.

They also own Burger Libre & Bullritos.

[OlDawg]

10 hours ago, pakronos said:

Yeah? Those LaPorte teams of the past were special because they played in a district to where it was tough with north shore being involved and a couple of others. The Laporte teams of recent years has played in a very soft district and imo making the superstars LOOK. good. IMO PAM keeps PAM from winning this. I think Brook improved a lot defensively since playing png. With that said LO recently went to the wire dealing with a Brook offense, imo just don’t have enough dawgs except the qb. LP STRUGGLED against the doormat of the district for a half a game with ball. Who if not more inexperienced as LP. I just don’t think they are good as they projected. Maybe they will prove me wrong, but I say 28-14 PAM. I feel this week, we might see the playbook open up a little more.

La Porte was in district with the Pasadena teams.

I’m not sure your wishful thinking is going to change Morgan’s mind. I don’t see PAM opening up much of anything other than a new wrinkle here or there with a play or two. PAM’s staff know exactly who they are. PAM—this year—is a strong running game, good special teams, great defense team. That’s y’all’s identity. Morgan’s not going to change a winning formula for one game—especially this one—because fans want to see more ‘flash.’

The only way I see a major change in the playbook in one week is if PAM falls behind by more than a score. Then, you may have trouble, and have to open up a little more.

Anything else would be foolish, and Morgan is no fool.

[1970]

1 hour ago, OlDawg said:

You’d be lost then. Gringos is in La Porte. If you like Gringo’s, El-Toro is closer to the stadium, and is the same food. It’s the family’s original restaurant. Gringo’s, El-Toro, Johnny Tamales,  and Jimmy Changas are all the same food & owned by the same family I went to school with at LP.

They also own Burger Libre & Bullritos.

I used to go to Gringo's after "school" at the LP fire fighting grounds.  I always thought that I was in Pasadena there, it's so far down and past the old San Jac golf course.