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stevenash

By stevenash
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tvc184

tvc184

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The market is driven by optimism whether on the upswing or downswing. Obviously people that invest heavily in the future of companies believes that Trump is way more likely to be business friendly than Obama. I think Obama has stifled the market but in the long run, you can never hold the American economy from advancing. It will eventually recover even with a bad administration in power. 

The problem with this big upswing in the market is that it is emotional just as if it was falling at a fast rate. It cannot keep going higher without falling. It might be fast or it might be gradual but relying too much on optimism and not output will leave some people holding the bag. 

That optimism will likely soon run out and it will be on Congress to actually pass some actions such as new rules or repealing old ones but in favor of business. 

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stevenash

stevenash

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The market is simply discounting the likelihood that there will be a reduction in regulations and a corporate income tax cut with another likelihood that GDP will advance from the 1.75% average over the last 8 years to something in the 3% to 4% area.  If you look at a very long term chart of the market from its very early stages and are not too close to it, the general direction is obvious.  The closer you get, the more interruptions in that general direction that can be seen.  Ultimately, the values of companies are determined by their earnings and perceived future earnings abilities.  Those " future abilities", in the eyes of the investor, have been enhanced substantially.  There has not been an administration perceived by the public as this pro business for a very long time.  Totally agree with the resiliency of our economy which has advanced weakly in spite of the current administration rather than because of it.  

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stevenash

stevenash

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I doubt very much whether the market places a priority on impressing you or anyone else.  One of the main reasons the market doubled is because it took a 40% hit just before Obama took office.  Whenever a panic takes place, the market gets considerably oversold but has always rebounded from such declines.  So you can credit a goodly portion of that "double"  to a recovery from a severe recession.  There is no recession from which we haven't recovered, therefore the recovery was going to occur regardless of who occupied the White House.  But if you wish to make it a political conversation, one can say that the reason it recovered was because of Obama or because of a House and Senate that wouldn't allow him to do many of the things he wanted to do.  One more thing, the long term average annual return on stocks is 10%.  If the market doubled in 8 years, the average annual return for those 8 years is 9%.

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Hagar

Hagar

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8 hours ago, westend1 said:

Yeah.  Let me know when it doubles like it did under Obama.  I will then be impressed.

Personally, I'd rather someone let me know when the number of people currently not working is decreased by 50.

And welcome back we1.  Haven't seen you posting in a while, although you may have and I just miss them.  

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westend1

westend1

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20 hours ago, stevenash said:

I doubt very much whether the market places a priority on impressing you or anyone else.  One of the main reasons the market doubled is because it took a 40% hit just before Obama took office.  Whenever a panic takes place, the market gets considerably oversold but has always rebounded from such declines.  So you can credit a goodly portion of that "double"  to a recovery from a severe recession.  There is no recession from which we haven't recovered, therefore the recovery was going to occur regardless of who occupied the White House.  But if you wish to make it a political conversation, one can say that the reason it recovered was because of Obama or because of a House and Senate that wouldn't allow him to do many of the things he wanted to do.  One more thing, the long term average annual return on stocks is 10%.  If the market doubled in 8 years, the average annual return for those 8 years is 9%.

Cool.  So I am assured that Trump can accomplish the same.

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stevenash

stevenash

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13 hours ago, westend1 said:

Cool.  So I am assured that Trump can accomplish the same.

One can never be assured what will happen in the market, just as one could not be sure what was going to happen after the last economic decline.  However, if you understand reversion to the mean, you will see that is all that took place during the last 8 years.  Once again, the ultimate determinant of a stocks value is what it earns.  If the markets perceive that earnings will improve, chances are very good that an improvement in the stock price will occur.

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westend1

westend1

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On 12/16/2016 at 4:12 AM, baddog said:

I fail to see the humor. Nobody can tell me why Obama is so great. The left hasn't even given Trump a chance and he is already getting high tech jobs for Americans. What can be so bad?

I don't know that it will be bad, but to whine that nobody is giving Trump a chance after the way Obama was treated by the right is very funny.

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baddog

baddog

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49 minutes ago, westend1 said:

I don't know that it will be bad, but to whine that nobody is giving Trump a chance after the way Obama was treated by the right is very funny.

You see it as a whine when in fact it is simple truth. I already said I gave Obama a chance and he let me down. Trump hasn't even been sworn in and is being chastised into oblivion. Please let me know what he has done wrong. Should he do something that I don't believe is in the best interest of the country, you will hear me speak out against it. Something the left finds impossible to do. 

No one has answered the question, "What has Obama done to make him be considered a great president?"

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BS Wildcats

BS Wildcats

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1 hour ago, baddog said:

You see it as a whine when in fact it is simple truth. I already said I gave Obama a chance and he let me down. Trump hasn't even been sworn in and is being chastised into oblivion. Please let me know what he has done wrong. Should he do something that I don't believe is in the best interest of the country, you will hear me speak out against it. Something the left finds impossible to do. 

No one has answered the question, "What has Obama done to make him be considered a great president?"

Him being "great" gets thrown out there because of his skin color.  

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westend1

westend1

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On 12/22/2016 at 7:28 PM, baddog said:

Nash started this thread about the market seeing record highs just because Trump gives hope and security in investments. What could possibly be wrong with that?

Trump has also done another good thing right here.....

This is the hidden content, please

I guess obama gave hope to the market, since it doubled under his watch.  Is that the way this works?

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baddog

baddog

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33 minutes ago, westend1 said:

I guess obama gave hope to the market, since it doubled under his watch.  Is that the way this works?

Doubled from what? I believe Nash has already addressed this several posts up.

What has Trump done wrong so far? Remember, all of this is happening with Trump's influence while there is still a sitting president.

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stevenash

stevenash

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On Dec 19, 2014 the S&P 500 ( broad barometer of the market) stood at 206.52.   On Nov 3, 2016, the market stood at 208.55.  The advance for that 23 month period was less than 1%.  From Nov 3,2016 ( 208.55) to Dec 22, 2016 (49 days) the market advanced 8.07% to 225.38.  So, once again, if one wants to politicize it, the market was much more impressed by the last 49 days than the prior 2 years.

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