stevenash

If you believe in the "what goes up must go down theory" do you believe it only in the case of stocks or as a general principal? If a team wins 4 in a row( the up) while another loses 4 in a row,(the down) is there a chance that the up/down relationship will change or is it a permanent trend?  If Devante Johnson hits his first four 3 pointers, is he more likely to make or miss his next one? I agree that basketball game outcomes aren't determined by stock investing statistical analysis and I am sure you will agree they also have no relevance to coin flips. Do I believe that Yates is due for a downturn?  If you mean this week, or this season, probably not.  If the time frame is long enough, my guess is  they will experience one relative to their current status.

[quote name="vp32" post="1186776" timestamp="1330367005"] Dickie wanna make a lil wager with me again? You have my word that this time i won't be "shady" or try and get technical with you this time. [/quote] Vp- Looks like you have been shunned.  If you want to, you can take down half of my bet with DV.  You might lose $10 but you might win $50.

So the fact that Murray State is ranked 12 and is ahead of such teams as Michigan, Wisconsin, UNLV, Indiana, Louisville, Temple and Notre Dame should be dismissed as not credible because "in the end they are Murray State" and the others are Michigan, Wisconsin, UNLV, Indiana, Louisville, Temple and Notre Dame"?

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186820" timestamp="1330370130"] [quote author=vp32 link=topic=96704.msg1186776#msg1186776 date=1330367005] Dickie wanna make a lil wager with me again? You have my word that this time i won't be "shady" or try and get technical with you this time. [/quote] No. shady is as shady does. [quote author=bullets13 link=topic=96704.msg1186798#msg1186798 date=1330369048] Dickie, you're acting like Ozen is a much better team than Nederland.  I've seen nothing in the past 3 years to back that up.  Is Ozen capable of beating Nederland?  Obviously.  But are they so much better than Nederland?  Obviously not.  If they were, they wouldn't have finished behind them in district.  I personally have no problem with Ozen being the favorite in this game based on recent play and their last result against Nederland, but i do have a problem with you acting like nederland fans are being ridiculous for questioning it. [/quote] Never said they were a better team..I am saying that Nederland, although, well coached, and being co-champions of the district, I don't think they have enough in the tank to beat a more talented, hot Ozen team right now..just like I did 2 weeks ago.. ::)...Its kinda like making Indiana a favorite over Murray State, who is at the top of their conference and having a pretty good season...They are not the Indiana of years past, but at the end of the day, they are Indiana, and they are STILL....Murray State. [/quote] [Hidden Content]

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186812" timestamp="1330369829"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186794#msg1186794 date=1330368639] You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me.  My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory.  I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand.  At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side.  Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned.  I hope my concern is misplaced.  As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters. [/quote]have you thought about the weight on Navasota's shoulder's if and when HJ takes the lead?  "Here we go again".  You and I both know that Sutherland won't let them get complacent.  From what I understand, the Silsbee defeat removed all threat of that happening (I think you have the same source as I do) again.  Second thing, I only know of 1 player that was involved in only 1 of those Navasota/HJ games.  I think the game is going to be no different than if they'd split the last 4 games.  Of course, there's no proof of that. Finally, you REALLY don't have to defend your investment strategy and success.  I nhope you know that. [/quote] Sure I have thought about it.  It would probably have the same effect as if Navasota goes on a run like Silsbee did against HJ.  My intended point in all of this is that there are many factors within the matchup that simply can't be quantified.  Yes, you and I can say/hope that Sutherland doesnt let them be complacent but I have seen them be that way several times this year.  You and I can't do much about Navasota being a little more motivated having lost a very big game to the same team 4 times.  Just for fun, you might enjoy this statistic that I maintain myself.  I price 1000 stocks every day and look at their performance over a 4 week period( I have a lot of samples)  After a 4 week period has ended, I list the stocks that outperformed the market 4 times, 3 times, 2 times, 1 time, and zero times.  The best subsequent performers (as a group) is the zero time outperformers.  I am not a statistical genius but in this business, you have "the second differential"," reversion to the mean", "standard deviation" and I can't remember how many others thrown at you on a regular basis.  If you are going to comprehend what you are being told, you have to become, at least, a little familiar with that stuff.

Hj played them in their Christmas tourney and it may have been as close as anyone has played Hj when HJ won the game.  I agree with your Kingwood Park assessment of fundamentally sound and good coaching.  It would be difficult for me, however, to pick a favorite in this game.

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186772" timestamp="1330366330"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186719#msg1186719 date=1330361854] I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row.  As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet.  Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip.  If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups.  Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0.  No other instance of 4 consecutive wins. [/quote]Steve, If you use your knowledge of statistical coin flipping to demonstrate your ability to invest in other people's money, then remind me never to invest with you!  ;) Regarding the 4-0 runs, you are still going about it the wrong way.  Its not, "what are the odds of beating someone 5 times in a row".  Its "what are the odds of, having beat your opponent 4 times in a row, that you beat them the next time you play". [/quote You may think I am going about it the wrong way and that is ok with me.  My main contention is that it is somewhat unlikely that a team beats another team 3 or 4 consecutive times and what little research I did seems to support that theory.  I play a lot of blackjack(where my own money is at risk and I am required to understand likely outcomes) and fully understand that if I win 4 straight hands or lose 4 straight hands, that has no bearing on the outcome of my next hand.  At the same time, if HJ has beaten Navasota 4 consecutive times, I am suggesting to you that there is a risk of complacency on the HJ side and the likelihood of additional motivation on the Navasota side.  Obviously those two components do not come about in a coin flip. Based on their overtime game with Silsbee this season, I have good reason to be concerned.  I hope my concern is misplaced.  As for my ability to invest other peoples money, that strategy has been validated by my clients and the market for a number of years and those two validations are all that matters.

Fooling around on the internet, I was able to pull  up the Celtics 2009-2010 schedule.  They had 13 series that involved either 3 or 4 games with the same opponent.  Within those 13 series, they had 1 3 game sweep, one 4 game sweep and were swept in four once.  All other series involved wins/losses for both teams involved.

I am suggesting that there are very few instances where one team beats another 3 or 4 times in a row.  As for whether or not I am conversant with the statistics heretofore mentioned, I feel that I am because my living has depended on a reasonable understanding of same for last 30 years,( particularly when putting your money and money belonging to others at risk )and they haven"t fired me yet.  Furthermore, as previously stated, many more variables exist in this than in a coin flip.  If there is an easy way to do so, I am going to go back to the 2010 NBA season and see if I can find some samples and will let you know. I did happen to find last years playoffs in which there were a total of 15 matchups.  Dallas swept the Lakers 4-0 and Celtics swept Knicks 4-0.  No other instance of 4 consecutive wins.

[quote name="ABSENT!" post="1186665" timestamp="1330357513"] No we don't whine Nash, but it is pretty fun.. And trust me whe I tell you DV is not whinning... He is at his computer with the biggest grin, trying to work yall up! [/quote] Yes it is fun, particularly when those who believe they are the manipulators are being manipulated as well.

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186653" timestamp="1330356908"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96657.msg1186644#msg1186644 date=1330356411] Call it a miniature farm system if you like.  The fact is that in a place like HJ, there is a relatively small population from which to draw potential players and it is one way to get kids interested in the game.  Please don't be foolish enough to try to say/infer that the HJ/Silsbee/HF/Orangefield coach has an advantage on a Yates coach when it comes to selecting potential playing personnel. [/quote] The "selection" for the Yates coach begins when they hit the campus in the 9th grade...NOT as elementary aged kids, as it is in some rural areas...Little Dribblers, if ran correctly, gives a high school basketball program a really good advantage...There is no such entity in Houston...Kids can PLAY little dribblers, but the local coaches have NO CLUE as to where these kids live or where they will attend school...its an advantage, Nash... [quote author=ABSENT! link=topic=96657.msg1186647#msg1186647 date=1330356591] Nick Wise does not have to recruit... His record says it all... He has been a winner in Houston and everybody knows it.  If you have a kid thatg is focussed on BBALL and is strong enough to avoid peer issues and succed in the classroom.... I would send mine there too!  Now if my kid ias a weak minded follower, he goes to Pearland! [/quote] No, NIC Wise does not...(Thats Greg's son) ;D ;D...But Greg does not either, you're correct! 8) [/quote] Go ahead and tell me that you would prefer to reside in an area where probably 10 kids out of 200 stay with the little dribblers program long enough to play at the high school level(whether they have any ability or not) vs a place where you dont see the kids until the 9th grade (but they have been playing under other coaches until then) but you get to choose from several hundred.

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186636" timestamp="1330356084"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96634.msg1186623#msg1186623 date=1330355622] Of course, at this point, we are ASSUMING that your perspective is 100% accurate and covers all that happened there.  Dicky, I know how much you know your basketball, but I have a strong gut feeling that you may not be in the know on this situation as much as you think you are.  I say that because the Lamar President is a good friend of mine and you would be surprised how different he explains things as compared to how they come out from people in the know. [/quote] At Texas Southern? I don't profess to know EVERYTHING about that situation, but Ronnie, just like Greg Wise are close to our family and another mentee of my father, and mentor of mine..I was coaching at Prairie View A&M during that time, so I had a good idea as to what was going on at Texas Southern...we talk! If I am not 100% "in the know", I sure am about 98.9% there... ???....not sure what your president bud has to say, but I know, what I know about that situation. [/quote] You always "know what you know".  The problem is that you sincerely believe that your "knowledge" is always superior to that of everyone else and I am sorry, that just isnt the case.  It never has been and never will be and you would be well served to adjust your theory in that respect.  There have been two Lamar coaches that were close personal friends of mine, but I learned over time that the fact that they were good friends did not make them as pure as the wind driven snow.

[quote name="ABSENT!" post="1186637" timestamp="1330356110"] I don't think it is criticizing, more like antagonizing... And you fall for it all the time.. i do it to you on the political board.. It's sports... The foundation of it is all about talking noise! Don’t go to a Philly vs. Cowboys game, you would be real sick… Philly fans talk about the Cowboys like they never won anything! [/quote] Then the "antagonizer" should voice no opposition or complain about those who choose to antagonize the antagonizer, right?  The team that I follow is not the one that is being antagonized, so your advice is not beneficial to me.  As for the political board, I dont believe that you or I cry and whine about each other either.

Call it a miniature farm system if you like.  The fact is that in a place like HJ, there is a relatively small population from which to draw potential players and it is one way to get kids interested in the game.  Please don't be foolish enough to try to say/infer that the HJ/Silsbee/HF/Orangefield coach has an advantage on a Yates coach when it comes to selecting potential playing personnel.

The kid who is, today, in the 4th grade little dribblers program, likely will not be coached at the high school by the coach who is there now.  The Little Dribblers program is normally located in relatively small towns where kids participate in all sports, thus diluting your theory.

[quote name="ABSENT!" post="1186622" timestamp="1330355569"] I am a Jag fan, and I know this, there is NO 20-4A team that will beat nor compete with Yates.  I am so glad that Ned is having a LTrain (football) type run in district over the last two years, but Ned don't get too caught up in it, because we have all had fall to earth experiences (Central & Ozen Included). I do agrre with Dickie, that district Champs only matter in District, who won 24-4A last year?  Exactly!  It is relevant for local talk, but as far as State wide is concerned it is pretty much nothing. In contrast, I think us as fans must fully enjoy every accomplishment no matter how small. So congrats to 20-4A for having the opportunity to put at least one team in the regional tournament... maybe TWO!!!!!  Go Jags! [/quote] Don't you think it is wrong to criticize local people supporting their teams simply because their accomplishments dont compare to those of Yates? (and, from certain perspectives, their accomplishments, on a relative basis, are greater than those of Yates)

Of course, at this point, we are ASSUMING that your perspective is 100% accurate and covers all that happened there.  Dicky, I know how much you know your basketball, but I have a strong gut feeling that you may not be in the know on this situation as much as you think you are.  I say that because the Lamar President is a good friend of mine and you would be surprised how different he explains things as compared to how they come out from people in the know.

[quote name="FanintheStands" post="1186596" timestamp="1330354195"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96703.msg1186452#msg1186452 date=1330314014] Those 4 consecutive wins trouble me. [/quote]Why?  They have no barren on the outcome of this game.... unless you believe in Karma. If you've flipped a coin 4 times and they've all come up heads, the chances of the next coin toss coming up heads is still 50%. [/quote] I am fully conversant with your statistical viewpoint.  However, there is a lot more involved here than stats and there are a lot more variables in this game than there are in a coin flip.  It might be interesting to look at a sample of college or pro scores, (where that information is readily available) and see just how often a team beats an opponent four or five consecutive times. 

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186297" timestamp="1330298780"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96684.msg1186291#msg1186291 date=1330298114] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96684.msg1186289#msg1186289 date=1330297917] [quote author=5 on 5 link=topic=96684.msg1186284#msg1186284 date=1330297426] By the way DV, why are you not asking Central...and Ozen...the question you keep asking Nederland....Can you (Central or Ozen) switch brackets with Yates and survive? That seems to be a very important question to you, so the answer is.....WHO CARES (other than you)? [/quote] Because Central and Ozen have both at least regional championship trophies in the old case... ::)....PLUS many district OUTRIGHT titles...no sharing....that's why...  8)....dead issue guys....next topic please. [/quote] District Titles-  Come on, man.  We have all been told how meaningless they are!!!!!! [/quote] Correct...very routine for some... [quote author=5 on 5 link=topic=96684.msg1186292#msg1186292 date=1330298237] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96684.msg1186289#msg1186289 date=1330297917] [quote author=5 on 5 link=topic=96684.msg1186284#msg1186284 date=1330297426] By the way DV, why are you not asking Central...and Ozen...the question you keep asking Nederland....Can you (Central or Ozen) switch brackets with Yates and survive? That seems to be a very important question to you, so the answer is.....WHO CARES (other than you)? [/quote] Because Central and Ozen have both at least regional championship trophies in the old case... ::)....PLUS many district OUTRIGHT titles...no sharing....that's why...  8)....dead issue guys....next topic please. [/quote] But can they beat Yates? Could THEY switch brackets with Yates and survive? [/quote] No...another resounding no... [quote author=NB-Dawg link=topic=96684.msg1186293#msg1186293 date=1330298253] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=top.  ic=96684.msg1186289#msg1186289 date=1330297917] [quote author=5 on 5 link=topic=96684.msg1186284#msg1186284 date=1330297426] By the way DV, why are you not asking Central...and Ozen...the.  question you keep asking Nederland....Can you (Central or Ozen) switch brackets with Yates and survive? That seems to be a very important question to you, so the answer is.....WHO CARES (other than you)? [/quote] Because Central and Ozen have both at least regional championship trophies in the old case... ::)....PLUS many district OUTRIGHT titles...no sharing....that's why...  8)....dead issue guys....next topic please. [/quote] U want to move on to the next topic as long as u get in the last word, amazing!  ::) [/quote] It's time to move on...your bias will not allow you to reason....its pointless... [/quote] IF we get real honest here we ALL have biases, don't we?  There is NOBODY who is totally objective, is there?

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186602" timestamp="1330354855"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96634.msg1186588#msg1186588 date=1330353778] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96634.msg1186587#msg1186587 date=1330353698] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96634.msg1186581#msg1186581 date=1330353104] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96634.msg1186580#msg1186580 date=1330353039] [quote author=DOGS1988 link=topic=96634.msg1186575#msg1186575 date=1330352737] I am curious.....what size fanbase does Yates have in attendance at their games? [/quote] Around 5,000 per game if they can get in the venue...Of course in Houston, the fan base is cyclical...They will follow the best team year in and year out, but Yates has a pretty good following anyway...It used to be Willowridge like that in their day, but it has clearly shifted. [/quote] Why has Willowridge been unable to maintain their dominance like Yates has? [/quote] Because of TWO reasons...Ronnie Courtney (now the head coach at FB Bush) took the Texas Southern job, and they built Marshall, which greatly pulled from Willowridge's feeder pattern initially...They used to be the LARGEST school in Ft. Bend, attendance wise, now they are the smallest...Side Note: Ronnie Courtney won ANOTHER state title at FB Bush in 2010....ANOTHER coincidence, huh? 8) [/quote] How did Mr. Courtney do at Texas Southern? [/quote] Well lets see, he won the league and made two NCAA tourney appearances...more than any Lamar coach in the last 12 years, huh? ::)...They had some problems recruiting after the academic scandals and issues with the president at Texas Southern during that time, and it hurt the program, ultimately costing him his job there...he immediately rebounded, landed at FB Bush, and won another 5A State Title, while building another solid HS program there...why? [/quote] If his performance at Texas Southern was that great, there should have been a bunch of other d-1s knocking at his door.  I have a hunch you might very well be minimizing some of the issues you mentioned and possibly even omitted some?

Nope- Little Dribblers is a LOCAL development program that simply allows mostly amateur coaches to work with kids who are growing up in your locale.

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186587" timestamp="1330353698"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96634.msg1186581#msg1186581 date=1330353104] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96634.msg1186580#msg1186580 date=1330353039] [quote author=DOGS1988 link=topic=96634.msg1186575#msg1186575 date=1330352737] I am curious.....what size fanbase does Yates have in attendance at their games? [/quote] Around 5,000 per game if they can get in the venue...Of course in Houston, the fan base is cyclical...They will follow the best team year in and year out, but Yates has a pretty good following anyway...It used to be Willowridge like that in their day, but it has clearly shifted. [/quote] Why has Willowridge been unable to maintain their dominance like Yates has? [/quote] Because of TWO reasons...Ronnie Courtney (now the head coach at FB Bush) took the Texas Southern job, and they built Marshall, which greatly pulled from Willowridge's feeder pattern initially...They used to be the LARGEST school in Ft. Bend, attendance wise, now they are the smallest...Side Note: Ronnie Courtney won ANOTHER state title at FB Bush in 2010....ANOTHER coincidence, huh? 8) [/quote] How did Mr. Courtney do at Texas Southern?

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186580" timestamp="1330353039"] [quote author=DOGS1988 link=topic=96634.msg1186575#msg1186575 date=1330352737] I am curious.....what size fanbase does Yates have in attendance at their games? [/quote] Around 5,000 per game if they can get in the venue...Of course in Houston, the fan base is cyclical...They will follow the best team year in and year out, but Yates has a pretty good following anyway...It used to be Willowridge like that in their day, but it has clearly shifted. [/quote] Why has Willowridge been unable to maintain their dominance like Yates has?

[quote name="Dick Vitale" post="1186563" timestamp="1330351817"] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96704.msg1186556#msg1186556 date=1330351044] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96704.msg1186534#msg1186534 date=1330349163] [quote author=stevenash link=topic=96704.msg1186507#msg1186507 date=1330338569] [quote author=Dick Vitale link=topic=96704.msg1186481#msg1186481 date=1330317015] It's NEDERLAND....at the end of the day... 8) [/quote] Well, as you say, "it's Nederland" and since it is "Nederland at the end of the day", I am in total shock that you haven't jumped ALL OVER my financial offer since the outcome is seemingly cut and dried. [/quote] I gotcha Nash......that bet is fine with me...I was pre occupied with all of the ridiculous statements made my the Nederland contingent, thinking for some reason they should be the "favorite" in their game against Ozen.... ::)....and had the AUDACITY to be mad about it! Ridiculous... 8) [/quote] Dicky- just for the sake of confirmation:  Our new bet (which replaces the original one) will consist of me taking Nederland plus 5 points and me giving you 5-1 odds by betting $100 against $20.  Is that the way you understand it? ( you know I will pay promptly if I lose) [/quote] I understand...I have no clue why you are so confident that Nederland will take this one, but...OK... ::) ::) 8) [[/quote] I am not particularly confident.  You know how I like to play Devil's Advocate with you.

[quote name="NB-Dawg" post="1186555" timestamp="1330350966"] I believe a HJ guy started this thread, no?  ??? [/quote] Yes, that would be me, Mr. Redundant.