Economy

[Separation Scientist]

1 hour ago, OlDawg said:

The Fed’s target rate is 2%. There will never be 0% inflation.

We don't want 0%. 2%-2.5% is the target inflation.

Trump has reduced Bidens hyperinflation from 9% down to his 2.7%. Still a tiny bit of work to do but it came WAY down from Biden. Gas is very cheap for summer driving too. It normally goes way up but it did not this summer. Yeah, Trump did that!    

[OlDawg]

41 minutes ago, Boyz N Da Hood said:

We heard inflation for 4 years like that was the issue.. obviously it never was, supposedly it's back to where we were pre pandemic yet hardly any changes in prices.. arguably worse in areas

Many things affect prices. Wages, government spending, disease among crops/livestock/poultry, weather, war, energy, tariffs…

Inflation is never caused by a single item problem.

The current tariffs aren’t effecting prices at this time. This is a shell game being played by producers/sellers to squeeze a little more profit, and a general excuse for poor company performance. Good management teams are doing just fine as the markets attest.

Tariff costs will hit. But, mainly Brazil. The others are already incorporated into costs. The effective, all-inclusive tariff rate is about 13-15%. Producers are basically absorbing the 10%. With the passage of the BBB, real wage increases (increases minus inflation) should wind up around $3500-$10k/yr. for the average family making ~$70k/year. Obviously, those not paying income tax now will have minimal benefit. That’s where increased medical costs may hurt them.

Medical costs will need to be addressed, or there will be major sticker shock.

I’d expect produce, coffee, chocolate, and beef all to rise in price. But beef is as much due to the screwworm invasion, drought, and low domestic cattle numbers as it is tariffs on Brazil. We only import 20% of our beef from Brazil. Shelf stable items should remain about the same as what they are currently.

I still expect a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in September. I could be wrong. But, they’re behind the 8 ball as I mentioned earlier.

[OlDawg]

2 minutes ago, Separation Scientist said:

We don't want 0%. 2%-2.5% is the target inflation.

Trump has reduced Bidens hyperinflation from 9% down to his 2.7%. Still a tiny bit of work to do but it came WAY down from Biden. Gas is very cheap for summer driving too. It normally goes way up but it did not this summer. Yeah, Trump did that!    

Correct. You don’t want 0% inflation.

[OlDawg]

All bets are off if the court rules Trump can’t impose tariffs in the manner he has used. I’d expect that decision to come out by mid to late next month.

Also, I’m FIRMLY against the Trump Administration looking to take a 10% stake in Intel. This is no better than Soylndra, or any other ‘too big to fail’ venture. This is a form of socialism/communism, and shouldn’t even be on the table. We’ve (Biden Admin) already given Intel over $10 Billion, and they’ve done nothing. The government has no business using our money to take a stakeholder position in any company.

Very disappointed in him even contemplating this fiasco.