Comparing Lamar to the SLC and the other new programs

[coachacola]

Sagarin Ratings:

[tt]23  I-AA INDEPENDENTS  (AA)=  43.68      43.26  ( 23)  TEAMS=  6      43.72  ( 23)
College Football 2010 through games of November 13 Saturday          the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE=  2.94          RATING    W  L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS  |  PREDICTOR 
101  South Alabama        AA =  62.69  10  0  48.83( 187)    0  0  |    0  0  |  70.06  69 |  55.28  134
159  Old Dominion        AA =  53.57    7  3  43.12( 217)    0  0  |    0  0  |  52.76  172 |  53.75  143
188  Georgia State        AA =  48.50    6  4  41.79( 224)    0  0  |    0  0  |  51.45  181 |  44.65  190
204  Lamar                AA =  44.34    4  6  55.78( 160)    0  0  |    0  0  |  50.38  184 |  35.09  223
240  Savannah State      AA =  25.40    1  9  49.37( 186)    0  0  |    0  0  |  26.68  236 |  23.38  241
241  NC Central          AA =  25.06    3  7  37.26( 238)    0  0  |    0  0  |  12.25  243 |  28.85  236[/tt]

[tt]18  SOUTHLAND          (AA)=  53.38      53.94  ( 18)  TEAMS=  8      53.80  ( 18)
College Football 2010 through games of November 13 Saturday          the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE=  2.94          RATING    W  L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS  |  PREDICTOR 
  80  Stephen F. Austin    AA =  67.50    8  2  54.10( 172)    0  0  |    0  1  |  69.11  76 |  65.33  87
130  McNeese State        AA =  58.45    6  4  56.68( 156)    0  2  |    0  2  |  62.92  109 |  53.33  151
137  Sam Houston State    AA =  57.19    5  5  55.25( 165)    0  0  |    0  0  |  57.96  140 |  55.80  126
144  Central Arkansas    AA =  56.01    6  4  53.43( 174)    0  0  |    0  0  |  57.11  144 |  54.28  138
178  Northwestern State  AA =  50.19    5  5  54.63( 167)    0  0  |    0  0  |  55.12  158 |  43.85  195
190  Texas State          AA =  48.27    4  6  55.96( 159)    0  0  |    0  0  |  53.17  169 |  41.76  204
193  Nicholls State      AA =  48.10    3  7  60.10( 132)    0  0  |    0  0  |  53.47  167 |  40.84  208
200  SE Louisiana        AA =  45.82    2  8  54.35( 168)    0  0  |    0  0  |  48.18  195 |  42.64  200[/tt]

Lamar should be competitive next year in the conference.

[JJWooten]

[quote name="coachacola" post="909889" timestamp="1289852783"]
Sagarin Ratings:

[tt]23  I-AA INDEPENDENTS   (AA)=  43.68      43.26  ( 23)   TEAMS=  6      43.72  ( 23)
College Football 2010 through games of November 13 Saturday           the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE=  2.94           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR 
101  South Alabama        AA =  62.69   10   0   48.83( 187)    0   0  |    0   0  |   70.06   69 |   55.28  134
159  Old Dominion         AA =  53.57    7   3   43.12( 217)    0   0  |    0   0  |   52.76  172 |   53.75  143
188  Georgia State        AA =  48.50    6   4   41.79( 224)    0   0  |    0   0  |   51.45  181 |   44.65  190
204  Lamar                AA =  44.34    4   6   55.78( 160)    0   0  |    0   0  |   50.38  184 |   35.09  223
240  Savannah State       AA =  25.40    1   9   49.37( 186)    0   0  |    0   0  |   26.68  236 |   23.38  241
241  NC Central           AA =  25.06    3   7   37.26( 238)    0   0  |    0   0  |   12.25  243 |   28.85  236[/tt]

[tt]18  SOUTHLAND           (AA)=  53.38      53.94  ( 18)   TEAMS=  8      53.80  ( 18)
College Football 2010 through games of November 13 Saturday           the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE=  2.94           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR 
  80  Stephen F. Austin    AA =  67.50    8   2   54.10( 172)    0   0  |    0   1  |   69.11   76 |   65.33   87
130  McNeese State        AA =  58.45    6   4   56.68( 156)    0   2  |    0   2  |   62.92  109 |   53.33  151
137  Sam Houston State    AA =  57.19    5   5   55.25( 165)    0   0  |    0   0  |   57.96  140 |   55.80  126
144  Central Arkansas     AA =  56.01    6   4   53.43( 174)    0   0  |    0   0  |   57.11  144 |   54.28  138
178  Northwestern State   AA =  50.19    5   5   54.63( 167)    0   0  |    0   0  |   55.12  158 |   43.85  195
190  Texas State          AA =  48.27    4   6   55.96( 159)    0   0  |    0   0  |   53.17  169 |   41.76  204
193  Nicholls State       AA =  48.10    3   7   60.10( 132)    0   0  |    0   0  |   53.47  167 |   40.84  208
200  SE Louisiana         AA =  45.82    2   8   54.35( 168)    0   0  |    0   0  |   48.18  195 |   42.64  200[/tt]

[b]Lamar should be competitive next year in the conference.[/b]
[/quote]

And why do you assume that? Because the 204th ranked FCS team, below SELA at 200? By these rankings, that would make you last in the SLC, and considering the only SLC team you beat was SELA, I would venture to say that unless some major changes happen in less than a year (Jeremy Johnson coming in, Derrick Hall being eligible, a new offensive line, and improved special teams), you may find yourself at the bottom of the SLC next year.

Oh, and South Alabama is ranked WAY too high according to these numbers, way way too high.

[ForeverADog]

Well considering we will have every player back, seem to have found a qb, and have a heralded running back to help with the running game we should be much more competitive. Not conference champs but possible 3 or 4 conference wins should be very attainable.

[puddin tane]

slam and texas st jr college are over-rated

[JJWooten]

[quote name="puddin tane" post="910191" timestamp="1289871379"]
slam and texas st jr college are over-rated
[/quote]

Yea, overrated how? Losing by 3 points to a team that hung 70 on y'all?

[LumberCard]

The rankings are interesting to look at, but really they don't do a whole lot for projecting next year and down the road in my opinion. The fact is, Lamar is going to be better next year because they have a year experience and will have more talent on the roster by default. You are going to add talent and some of the current contributors might not see the field. It happens for every program, but at an even greater level for teams like LU who are in the beginning stages. If you add a Johnson and Hall type of player to your roster you are obviously going to have more talent than you currently do. But it takes time to build up O-Lines and D-Lines and that will probably be they key area to watch as things progress. LU already has some electric talent offensively, but the not so flashy positions is where the difference in wins and losses come.

All that to say, the numbers show one thing, but recruiting, injuries, momentum, scheduling and a lot of other factors go into how your ranking will be, and how good the teams will actually be. If I had to guess, if South Alabama had played the same schedule as Lamar, they would not be 10-0, and would not be ranked 100. It would be a lot more like LU at 204, which is not terrible for either school considering they are new programs.

[bigred360]

Great post LumberCard as I heard Coach Woodard address a person asking about recruiting. He said, Lineman, lineman and more lineman; then the best athletes available.

We are small for a FCS level school on the OL and DL. I heard one of the DL for Lamar was outweighed by over 100 lbs by a SD O-Lineman.

[JJWooten]

[quote name="bigred360" post="910629" timestamp="1289928023"]
Great post LumberCard as I heard Coach Woodard address a person asking about recruiting. He said, Lineman, lineman and more lineman; then the best athletes available.

We are small for a FCS level school on the OL and DL. I heard one of the DL for Lamar was outweighed by over 100 lbs by a SD O-Lineman.
[/quote]

The game is always won in the trenches. If you can't establish that area then a few things happen:

You can't run the ball, you won't have a dynamic passing attack, sacks will happen too many times, and fumbles will happen because the defense is getting to the ball right on the snap

On the defensive side, you'll give up huge rushing yards to opponents and big pass plays because they have time to throw

[NorthoftheBorder]

[quote name="JJWooten" post="910704" timestamp="1289931550"]
[quote author=bigred360 link=topic=76152.msg910629#msg910629 date=1289928023]
Great post LumberCard as I heard Coach Woodard address a person asking about recruiting. He said, Lineman, lineman and more lineman; then the best athletes available.

We are small for a FCS level school on the OL and DL. I heard one of the DL for Lamar was outweighed by over 100 lbs by a SD O-Lineman.
[/quote]

The game is always won in the trenches. If you can't establish that area then a few things happen:

You can't run the ball, you won't have a dynamic passing attack, sacks will happen too many times, and fumbles will happen because the defense is getting to the ball right on the snap

On the defensive side, you'll give up huge rushing yards to opponents and big pass plays because they have time to throw
[/quote]

Sounds like you have seen a few of our games! ;)

[coachacola]

[quote name="bigred360" post="910629" timestamp="1289928023"]
Great post LumberCard as I heard Coach Woodard address a person asking about recruiting. He said, Lineman, lineman and more lineman; then the best athletes available.

We are small for a FCS level school on the OL and DL. I heard one of the DL for Lamar was outweighed by over 100 lbs by a SD O-Lineman.
[/quote]

Lamar was after Trey Cassidy, an offensive guard from Angleton, but he gave a verbal to Colorado State.

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-football/recruiting/player?id=118599&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fcollege-football%2frecruiting%2fplayer%3fid%3d118599

[JJWooten]

[quote name="NorthoftheBorder" post="910714" timestamp="1289932512"]
[quote author=JJWooten link=topic=76152.msg910704#msg910704 date=1289931550]
[quote author=bigred360 link=topic=76152.msg910629#msg910629 date=1289928023]
Great post LumberCard as I heard Coach Woodard address a person asking about recruiting. He said, Lineman, lineman and more lineman; then the best athletes available.

We are small for a FCS level school on the OL and DL. I heard one of the DL for Lamar was outweighed by over 100 lbs by a SD O-Lineman.
[/quote]

The game is always won in the trenches. If you can't establish that area then a few things happen:

You can't run the ball, you won't have a dynamic passing attack, sacks will happen too many times, and fumbles will happen because the defense is getting to the ball right on the snap

On the defensive side, you'll give up huge rushing yards to opponents and big pass plays because they have time to throw
[/quote]

Sounds like you have seen a few of our games! ;)
[/quote]

I think I've seen 4. The defense has progressed nicely over the course of the season, but the DL still needs a lot of work. The team averages 1.0 sack per game, which ranks them near the bottom, tied for 107. Luckily, they aren't the WORST team at Tackles for Loss, but it's still in the bottom 1/4

[Ruckdad]

So we have the worst rushing offense in college football, one of the worst defensive lines in FCS play, our QB has turned the ball over more than 20 times in 10 games, our offensive linemen and defensive linemen are outmatched every week and we have a one trick pony offense.  Yet we are probably going to finish the season with 5 wins!  Sounds like Coach Woodard needs an extension if he can win five games with the clustermess that he had to work with his first year.

[coachacola]

But I thought Woodard was over his head?  :D

[JJWooten]

[quote name="Ruckdad" post="910818" timestamp="1289940512"]
So we have the worst rushing offense in college football, one of the worst defensive lines in FCS play, our QB has turned the ball over more than 20 times in 10 games, our offensive linemen and defensive linemen are outmatched every week and we have a trick pony offense.  [b]Yet we are probably going to finish the season with 5 wins! [/b] Sounds like Coach Woodard needs an extension if he can win five games with the clustermess that he had to work with his first year.
[/quote]

But those 5 wins come against:

Webber International
SELA
Langston
South Dakota
OKPU (Probably)

2 legit wins. I don't think any coach who can only beat sub DI teams gets contract extensions. The SELA win would be more impressive if they weren't 2-8 on the season or USD which is 4-7.

I actually don't remember how many wins I predicted for Lamar, I wanna say that I had said 4, the three against sub D-I comp and 1 against either Ga State or USA.

[bigred360]

Those DII schools are better than most people think because they can take in juco transfers who have 36 or more hrs and they don't have to graduate. So, there are a lot of kids that fall down that path and are taking up by these DII schools.

OPSU will probably be a lot like Langston and we better be ready to play or they could upset us as it is the last game of the season for both programs.

We need to get the off season started off in the right direction and that is with a victory Saturday.

[JJWooten]

[quote name="bigred360" post="910864" timestamp="1289943649"]
Those DII schools are better than most people think because they can take in juco transfers who have 36 or more hrs and they don't have to graduate. So, there are a lot of kids that fall down that path and are taking up by these DII schools.

[b]OPSU will probably be a lot like Langston and we better be ready to play or they could upset us as it is the last game of the season for both programs. [/b]

We need to get the off season started off in the right direction and that is with a victory Saturday.
[/quote]

That would be devastating to a program that's done as much as it has over the course of this year. That would probably leave a bitter taste in the mouths of a lot of Cards.

[hipster]

Somebody recruited these players they were not handed to Woodard.  Now whose fault is it I do not know, but someone has got to take the blame.  These guys had 2 years to evaluate some of this talent.  If this is the best they can get so be it.  We will find out in Feb. who we get on signing day.  Hoping for the best.

[Texantagonise]

[quote name="Ruckdad" post="910818" timestamp="1289940512"]
So we have the worst rushing offense in college football, one of the worst defensive lines in FCS play, our QB has turned the ball over more than 20 times in 10 games, our offensive linemen and defensive linemen are outmatched every week and we have a one trick pony offense.  Yet we are probably going to finish the season with 5 wins!  Sounds like Coach Woodard needs an extension if he can win five games with the clustermess that he had to work with his first year.
[/quote]
I like this post.  I also like the word CLUSTERMESS.  ;D

[westendfirst]

[quote name="JJWooten" post="910704" timestamp="1289931550"]
[quote author=bigred360 link=topic=76152.msg910629#msg910629 date=1289928023]
Great post LumberCard as I heard Coach Woodard address a person asking about recruiting. He said, Lineman, lineman and more lineman; then the best athletes available.

We are small for a FCS level school on the OL and DL. I heard one of the DL for Lamar was outweighed by over 100 lbs by a SD O-Lineman.
[/quote]

The game is always won in the trenches. If you can't establish that area then a few things happen:

You can't run the ball, you won't have a dynamic passing attack, sacks will happen too many times, and fumbles will happen because the defense is getting to the ball right on the snap

On the defensive side, you'll give up huge rushing yards to opponents and big pass plays because they have time to throw
[/quote]
Odd.  I could have sworn we just beat south dakota and their giant offensive line.  Allo these posts about how outmanned we are after a win.

[Ruckdad]

[quote name="JJWooten" post="910833" timestamp="1289941566"]
[quote author=Ruckdad link=topic=76152.msg910818#msg910818 date=1289940512]
So we have the worst rushing offense in college football, one of the worst defensive lines in FCS play, our QB has turned the ball over more than 20 times in 10 games, our offensive linemen and defensive linemen are outmatched every week and we have a trick pony offense.  [b]Yet we are probably going to finish the season with 5 wins! [/b] Sounds like Coach Woodard needs an extension if he can win five games with the clustermess that he had to work with his first year.
[/quote]

But those 5 wins come against:

Webber International
SELA
Langston
South Dakota
OKPU (Probably)

2 legit wins. I don't think any coach who can only beat sub DI teams gets contract extensions. The SELA win would be more impressive if they weren't 2-8 on the season or USD which is 4-7.

I actually don't remember how many wins I predicted for Lamar, I wanna say that I had said 4, the three against sub D-I comp and 1 against either Ga State or USA.
[/quote]
Leave it to a Sam fan to not see the sarcasm in a post and point out some weakness in an otherwise fictitious argument.  ;)

[JJWooten]

[quote name="Ruckdad" post="911416" timestamp="1290012201"]

Leave it to a Sam fan to not see the sarcasm in a post and point out some weakness in an otherwise fictitious argument.  ;)
[/quote]

Thanks, I do my best!  ;D ;D

After those fist two games, I would have been on the "Give him an extension" bandwagon, but since then, eh.

[Green Menace]

The really good, fast-with-the-feet, big linemen, or "Big Uglies" as we like to call them, are some of the hardest players to get.  Usually the AQ teams from the big power conferences get the cream of the crop.  Next, the "non-AQ" or mid-majors get their share of the good linemen.  Many programs rely on a few good ones that fall through the cracks or the occasional diamond in the rough, coupled with recruiting the Junior Colleges.  It's tough getting the linemen that make a difference.

During Darrell Dickey's time at North Texas, which produced some incredibly good rushing attacks and national rankings a few times, he would recruit decent sized tight ends out of high school.  The 6-4 or taller variety, about 235 lbs, and put them on a weight program during their redshirt year.  Many ended up around 6-4, 290+ pounds, and could move. All-Pro Guard Brian Waters of the Kansas City Chiefs started as a tight end at UNT, 6-3, 234 pounds, move to the offensive line.  Now he's 6-3, 320!

Lamar and other teams at the FCS level have a great advantage, in that they can sign transfers from major colleges.  You have several on your team already and are probably contributors on your team.  The players can transfer in and play immediately without sitting out a year (like the are required to do when transferring from one FBS program to another FBS program.  Good way to get good lineman and other positions too.


Takes time.

[NorthoftheBorder]

[quote name="Green Menace" post="912064" timestamp="1290091532"]
The really good, fast-with-the-feet, big linemen, or "Big Uglies" as we like to call them, are some of the hardest players to get.  Usually the AQ teams from the big power conferences get the cream of the crop.  Next, the "non-AQ" or mid-majors get their share of the good linemen.  Many programs rely on a few good ones that fall through the cracks or the occasional diamond in the rough, coupled with recruiting the Junior Colleges.  It's tough getting the linemen that make a difference.

During Darrell Dickey's time at North Texas, which produced some incredibly good rushing attacks and national rankings a few times, he would recruit decent sized tight ends out of high school.  The 6-4 or taller variety, about 235 lbs, and put them on a weight program during their redshirt year.  Many ended up around 6-4, 290+ pounds, and could move. All-Pro Guard Brian Waters of the Kansas City Chiefs started as a tight end at UNT, 6-3, 234 pounds, move to the offensive line.  Now he's 6-3, 320!

Lamar and other teams at the FCS level have a great advantage, in that they can sign transfers from major colleges.  You have several on your team already and are probably contributors on your team.  The players can transfer in and play immediately without sitting out a year (like the are required to do when transferring from one FBS program to another FBS program.  Good way to get good lineman and other positions too.


Takes time.
[/quote]

Very intelligent post.  Can we trade some of our fans for you?