Week-7 Port Arthur Memorial at La Porte Predictions

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Old rivals meet again. 😈 

 

This may very well end up being the district championship game PT-1. 

[OlDawg]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Old rivals meet again. 😈 

 

This may very well end up being the district championship game PT-1. 

I thought you were a little late putting this up. 😜

Did you realize this year will be the 20th anniversary of our first meeting?

LP leads the series 8-6, and 3-1 in the PO’s.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 minute ago, OlDawg said:

I thought you were a little late putting this up. 😜

Did you realize this year will be the 20th anniversary of our first meeting?

Nope. 

 

Also: time flies. 

[OlDawg]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Nope. 

 

Also: time flies. 

I feel it every morning.

[2trill]

23-10 Pam

[Big Daddy Cool]

10 hours ago, OlDawg said:

I feel it every morning.

Is Rice Crispies your favorite cereal?  You know a Snap, Crackle and Pop. Or is it a big old glass of Metamucil that gets you going?🤣🤣

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Hard to give a solid prediction when one doesn't know what the QB situation is, but I'll go +8 Titans. 🤞🏾 Defense travels. 

 

I reckon LP will want to get their QB rolling out some in this one and maybe dial up more QB runs than ppl are accustomed to seeing. 

 

Memorial WRs need to catch wide open passes, help the QB whoever it may be. 

 

Special Teams IMO will be the deciding factor in this one. 

[1970]

I waffled a bit on this one, but PAM, I think, in another close one.  The young man that ran that 97 yard sprint from scrimmage against Westbrook last Friday will be the big difference. 

[OlDawg]

Both teams will focus on stopping the respective #21's. If they both do that, what are the other options for each offense? This will be key. If the Dawgs have some of their OL coming back off injury where they can sub throughout the game and stay fresh, it will be a big help against PAM's attacking D. LP hasn't had the same OL lineup since game 1. On the positive side, it's provided a lot of flexibility and experience.

One advantage I see that LP has, is they can play this game multiple ways. If they choose to focus on the power run game with Simon (4 Star RB) & Dieudonne, they are capable of doing that, and running clock at a 3-4 ypc clip. If they decide to use the passing game more, they have Reynolds (D1 commit TE), Smith (4 Star WR), Wallace (D1 prospect WR), and Simon & Dieudonne out of the backfield. This will be the first team where PAM will actually have to cover the entire field, and not be able to double or crash. If they do, someone will be open, or a lane will be there.

In 3 district games--with a total BU OL, Simon has carried for 545 yards at a 7.3 ypc average. BWB was the first game he's carried over 20 times. LP spreads the rushing load more this year since people key on Simon. Wells passed for 4 TD's against BWB with a 78% completion rate, and is averaging over 185 ypg through the air. He's accounted for 12 TD's (9 passing, 3 rushing) with no INT's on the year.

As far as Special Teams, KO's are rarely returned against LP as they are 90-95% touchbacks.

PAM has a large advantage in D scoring. But, the common opponent spreads between the teams are not much different. PAM scores less. But, gives up less. LP scores more. But, gives up more.

I said way back in the summer that if you put PAM's D with LP's O and ST's, you could book a trip to Arlington.

LP would probably be okay with a higher scoring game. PAM would probably prefer a game in the 20's. Field position will be key for both teams. TO's and penalties will be key as always.

I expect the computers to favor PAM by a pretty wide margin. But, algorithms can't account for this rivalry. Something unexpected will happen in this game. It usually does.

[OlDawg]

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[OlDawg]

4 hours ago, 1970 said:

I waffled a bit on this one, but PAM, I think, in another close one.  The young man that ran that 97 yard sprint from scrimmage against Westbrook last Friday will be the big difference. 

I’m curious to see how LP handles the pressure of a big game. They have to take care of the ball. If they do, I’m not sure PAM’s O can keep up. People don’t realize that the Dawgs only have 3 or 4 Seniors starting combined between the O & D.

Skill players-

• Wells (QB)- Jr.
• Simon (RB) - Jr.
• Smith (WR) - Jr.
• Dieudonne (RB) - Soph.
• Wallace (WR) - Fr.

Wallace already has 6 D1 offers as a Frosh. So, double Smith (22 D1 offers) at your own risk. Of course, Simon still has his 28 D1 offers as well.

Reynolds (TE) is the lone Senior. He’s committed to Pitt with a full ride.

 

[1970]

1 hour ago, OlDawg said:

I’m curious to see how LP handles the pressure of a big game. They have to take care of the ball. If they do, I’m not sure PAM’s O can keep up. People don’t realize that the Dawgs only have 3 or 4 Seniors starting combined between the O & D.

Skill players-

• Wells (QB)- Jr.
• Simon (RB) - Jr.
• Smith (WR) - Jr.
• Dieudonne (RB) - Soph.
• Wallace (WR) - Fr.

Wallace already has 6 D1 offers as a Frosh. So, double Smith (22 D1 offers) at your own risk. Of course, Simon still has his 28 D1 offers as well.

Reynolds (TE) is the lone Senior. He’s committed to Pitt with a full ride.

 

I hear ya.  Especially wrt Simon.  I guess we'll see how it plays out; should be a great game, and I plan to keep up with it along with a few others this week.  

[Austin1985]

Lp this

Lp that

All I can see is one team gives up 39.8 ppg

and the other gives up 9.6

The 1st round shock last year may have been the beginning of a trend.....

 

[OlDawg]

1 hour ago, Austin1985 said:

Lp this

Lp that

All I can see is one team gives up 39.8 ppg

and the other gives up 9.6

The 1st round shock last year may have been the beginning of a trend.....

 

The better comparison would be:

• PAM 33 ppg - 4 papg = differential of 29 ppg
• LP 52 ppg - 35 papg = differential of 17 ppg

Basically, the game is as we all know. LP's O that's averaging 52 ppg vs PAM's D that's giving up 4 ppg. If you believe PAM can hold LP 20-30 points below their average, and still score their average of 33 against LP, you roll with PAM, and you're looking at a one score game. If you believe LP can hold PAM to their average of 33 or less, and only have to score 65% of their average, you're looking at a one score game, and you roll with LP.

(The above numbers are from actual, common district opponents the two teams have played in consecutive weeks with LP playing them all first.)

I'm a big fan of an aggressive D. I love PAM's D. But, I also love LP's O & special teams. If I had my personal preference, I'd prefer the D. But, that's not what LP has this year.