'21 5AD2 R3 Favorite

[Cougtalk]

  On 9/20/2021 at 3:13 PM, Eazy said:

FB Marshall may still be considered the favorite in Region 3.  The other top teams aren’t as strong as last year.  At least to this point.  I think there could be a surprise team emerge.  Don’t see anyone in Regions 3-4 that can knock off Aledo.   

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The only team than can beat Aledo is Aledo, the question is which team this year will have that chance. 

[HurricaneCal]

  On 9/20/2021 at 3:50 PM, Cougtalk said:

The only team than can beat Aledo is Aledo, the question is which team this year will have that chance. 

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I have to agree, Aledo then everybody else!

[AledoAlumni]

  On 9/20/2021 at 3:13 PM, Eazy said:

FB Marshall may still be considered the favorite in Region 3.  The other top teams aren’t as strong as last year.  At least to this point.  I think there could be a surprise team emerge.  Don’t see anyone in Regions 3-4 that can knock off Aledo.   

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I agree that Fort Bend Marshall is the favorite in the region. They are fast like normal but have a bunch of experience that came back. 

[AledoAlumni]

  On 9/20/2021 at 4:15 PM, CougarCal said:

I have to agree, Aledo then everybody else!

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Idk, I dont think the gap this year is as big. 

[Cougar14.2]

As of today I would say: 

1. FB Marshall

2 Crosby

3. Montgomery 

4. A&M-Con. 

5. Texas High 
 

It’s hard to get a feel for FB Marshall this year because of their schedule. Their offense is kind of weird this year because their qb is also their leading rusher. I’ve been on Montgomery since the beginning of the year. They have all the offensive weapons, I’m just not sure about their defense? 

 

[MrFleet23]

That cupcake schedule for Marshall is a double edge sword. On one hand you really can't tell if they are overrated or underated on the other they have faced zero adversity at all. If you're a great team thats going to happen anyway but as we saw last year they blew thru preseason and district and damn near lost in the first rd. I still think they take it tho. Amazing program for a team that is barely a 5A

[Eazy]

  On 10/11/2021 at 10:45 PM, Cougar14.2 said:

As of today I would say: 

1. FB Marshall

2 Crosby

3. Montgomery 

4. A&M-Con. 

5. Texas High 
 

It’s hard to get a feel for FB Marshall this year because of their schedule. Their offense is kind of weird this year because their qb is also their leading rusher. I’ve been on Montgomery since the beginning of the year. They have all the offensive weapons, I’m just not sure about their defense? 

 

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I would agree with this ranking.  Montgomery plays A&M this week, which should decide District 10

[AledoAlumni]

  On 10/12/2021 at 12:36 AM, MrFleet23 said:

That cupcake schedule for Marshall is a double edge sword. On one hand you really can't tell if they are overrated or underated on the other they have faced zero adversity at all. If you're a great team thats going to happen anyway but as we saw last year they blew thru preseason and district and damn near lost in the first rd. I still think they take it tho. Amazing program for a team that is barely a 5A

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Even though their schedule wont necessarily prepare them, they have made enough deep runs lately where they know what it takes to make it to Arlington. 

[MrFleet23]

Other than last year they haven't had the cupcake schedule. They at least would have Manvel to play every year. 

[AledoAlumni]

  On 10/12/2021 at 1:09 PM, MrFleet23 said:

Other than last year they haven't had the cupcake schedule. They at least would have Manvel to play every year. 

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Maybe they are to the point where teams in their area dont want to play them in non-district. I know we have issues finding teams from time to time. We have to expand our drive time. Regarding their district there isnt really much they can do. 

[MrFleet23]

  On 10/12/2021 at 1:59 PM, aledoalumni said:

Maybe they are to the point where teams in their area dont want to play them in non-district. I know we have issues finding teams from time to time. We have to expand our drive time. Regarding their district there isnt really much they can do. 

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Yeah the district is set. Don't know for sure about teams not wanting to play them. But I believe that the Dallas area has less schools. They should be able to find some middle of the rd. 6A schools out here. They could be at an awkward spot where they're too good for top 5A schools and not good enough for top 6A's. Northshore, Katy teams of that caliber would probably kill them. But that's what they are going to have to compete with in order to beat Aledo. IMHO. 

[AledoAlumni]

  On 10/12/2021 at 2:49 PM, MrFleet23 said:

Yeah the district is set. Don't know for sure about teams not wanting to play them. But I believe that the Dallas area has less schools. They should be able to find some middle of the rd. 6A schools out here. They could be at an awkward spot where they're too good for top 5A schools and not good enough for top 6A's. Northshore, Katy teams of that caliber would probably kill them. But that's what they are going to have to compete with in order to beat Aledo. IMHO. 

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I'd like to see FBM vs Cedar Park or someone along those lines. That would be a fun game. 

[Cougar14.2]

  On 10/12/2021 at 2:49 PM, MrFleet23 said:

Yeah the district is set. Don't know for sure about teams not wanting to play them. But I believe that the Dallas area has less schools. They should be able to find some middle of the rd. 6A schools out here. They could be at an awkward spot where they're too good for top 5A schools and not good enough for top 6A's. Northshore, Katy teams of that caliber would probably kill them. But that's what they are going to have to compete with in order to beat Aledo. IMHO. 

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FB Marshall could play Alief Taylor, FB Ridge Point, Dawson, Shadow Creek, George Ranch, etc. With an enrollment of only like 1,300 I think coach Williams chooses to play a soft schedule in hopes of keep his guys healthy for the playoffs. Most starters only play two quarters during the regular season. He really ain't looking for that kind of smoke in non-district play though. 

[AledoAlumni]

  On 10/12/2021 at 9:48 PM, Cougar14.2 said:

FB Marshall could play Alief Taylor, FB Ridge Point, Dawson, Shadow Creek, George Ranch, etc. With an enrollment of only like 1,300 I think coach Williams chooses to play a soft schedule in hopes of keep his guys healthy for the playoffs. Most starters only play two quarters during the regular season. He really ain't looking for that kind of smoke in non-district play though. 

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Hard to argue with the results. 

[Horton]

  On 10/11/2021 at 10:45 PM, Cougar14.2 said:

As of today I would say: 

1. FB Marshall

2 Crosby

3. Montgomery 

4. A&M-Con. 

5. Texas High 
 

It’s hard to get a feel for FB Marshall this year because of their schedule. Their offense is kind of weird this year because their qb is also their leading rusher. I’ve been on Montgomery since the beginning of the year. They have all the offensive weapons, I’m just not sure about their defense? 

 

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I still say Crosby, if the Q/B and running back are healthy, the defense will give them a chance to win every game at least to the third round. 

[Cougtalk]

  On 10/13/2021 at 9:21 PM, Horton said:

I still say Crosby, if the Q/B and running back are healthy, the defense will give them a chance to win every game at least to the third round. 

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Don't forget Kirkwood that kid looks virtually unguardable. He's has several d1 prospects line up across from him and so far he's been a beast. 

[AledoAlumni]

These final two weeks will have an impact but here is my current projection.

 

w1 Canutillo  / f2 El Paso Jefferson
r4 Fort Worth Wyatt / t3 Canyon Randall
w2 El Paso Burges / f1 El Paso Parkland
r3 Wichita Falls Rider / t4 Creekview
w3 Lubbock Cooper / f4 Fort Worth Southwest
r2 El Paso Austin / t1 El Paso Ysleta
w4 Grapevine / f3 Wichita Falls
r1 El Paso Horizon / t2 El Paso Andress

w5 Aledo / f6 Dallas Hillcrest
r8 Royse City / t7 Frisco Liberty
w6 South Oak Cliff / f5 Mansfield Timberview
r7 Frisco / t8 Forney
w7 Lucas Lovejoy / f8 Corsicana
r6 Mesquite Poteet / t5 Everman
w8 Ennis / f7 Denison
r5  Burleson / t6 Dallas Kimball

w9 Texarkana / f10  Huntsville
r12  Texas City / t11 Galena Park
w10 Montgomery / f9 Nacogdoches
r11 Houston Sterling  / t12 Port Neches Groves
w11 Fort Bend Marshall / f12 Barbers Hill
r10 A&M Consolidated / t9 Longview Pine Tree
w12 Crosby / f11 Houston Madison
r9 Marshall  / t10 Bryan Rudder

w13 Rouse / f14 Marble Falls
r16  Mission Veterans Memorial / t15 Floresville
w14 Liberty Hill / f13 Bastrop
r15 Boerne Champion / t16 Sharyland
w15 Alamo Heights / f16 Sharyland Pioneer
r14 Austin McCallum / t13 Leander Glenn
w16 Mercedes / f15 Kerrville Tivy
r13 Brenham / t14 Austin Travis

[AledoAlumni]

Slight adjustments with districts 12 & 13. 

[HurricaneCal]

  On 10/13/2021 at 9:21 PM, Horton said:

I still say Crosby, if the Q/B and running back are healthy, the defense will give them a chance to win every game at least to the third round. 

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FBM got that one kid at WR that’s a difference maker, if he controls his emotions, the sky is the limit for that young man.

[AledoAlumni]

Voted Fort Bend Marshall on the poll question earlier but Crosby has been rolling lately. Still think it comes down to those two ultimately. Regarding region 2 it will come down to Aledo and Lovejoy. With all due respect but I think those are the teams on the short list for state. 

[Separation Scientist]

OK, I was reluctant to post this, but after some thought this is how I think it plays out:

First, the disclaimer. I do NOT know the official tie breaking protocol. What I am posting is just my view of the next two weeks, Zero guarantees, just my thoughts.

Here is my take:

Crosby locked at #1.

TC is currently #2, but has to play PNG and BH, both teams have winning records.

BH should beat Dayton, and then plays TC.

PNG plays TC, then beats Santa Fe

Ned beats K-Park, loses to Crosby.

Honestly I don't think TC is as good as their record at this point but I could be very wrong. They struggled with Ned, lost badly to Crosby, and had a weak pre-district. I think BH beats Dayton, then gets excited and narrowly beats TC in the last game. BH is gelling. BH ends 5-2 in 2nd place.

TC probably splits PNG and BH, giving them a 5-2 record, but TC is 3rd because BH won head to head.

I think PNG and Ned ties for 4th. I don't know how tie is broken. Points I guess. 

So, I think Crosby 1, BH 2, TC 3, Ned or PNG 4th. 

I am not trying to change anyone's mind or anything, nor am I speaking as a BH "homer" at all. Thats just how I see it ending up. Just an opinion! If you see obvious flaws, please let me know. Tell me what you think. 

 

 

[Cougar14.2]

  On 10/23/2021 at 7:48 PM, Separation Scientist said:

OK, I was reluctant to post this, but after some thought this is how I think it plays out:

First, the disclaimer. I do NOT know the official tie breaking protocol. What I am posting is just my view of the next two weeks, Zero guarantees, just my thoughts.

Here is my take:

Crosby locked at #1.

TC is currently #2, but has to play PNG and BH, both teams have winning records.

BH should beat Dayton, and then plays TC.

PNG plays TC, then beats Santa Fe

Ned beats K-Park, loses to Crosby.

Honestly I don't think TC is as good as their record at this point But I could be very wrong. They struggled with Ned, lost badly to Crosby, and had a weak pre-district. I think BH beats Dayton, then gets excited and narrowly beats TC in the last game. BH is gelling. BH ends 5-2 in 2nd place.

TC probably splits PNG and BH, giving them a 5-2 record, but TC is 3rd because BH won head to head.

I think PNG and Ned ties for 4th. 

So, I think Crosby 1, BH 2, TC 3, Ned or PNG 4th. 

I am not trying to change anyone's mind or anything, nor am I speaking as a BH "homer" at all. Thats just how I see it ending up. Just an opinion! If you see obvious flaws, please let me know. Tell me what you think. 

 

 

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This is exactly what I think will happen. The only thing I will point out is that in your scenario PNG and Ned couldn’t tie for 4th place because Ned has the head to head. If BH and TC both finish 5-2, Ned and PNG finish 4-3 then Ned gets in. PNG gets ready for baseball season. 

[Cougtalk]

  On 10/12/2021 at 12:36 AM, MrFleet23 said:

That cupcake schedule for Marshall is a double edge sword. On one hand you really can't tell if they are overrated or underated on the other they have faced zero adversity at all. If you're a great team thats going to happen anyway but as we saw last year they blew thru preseason and district and damn near lost in the first rd. I still think they take it tho. Amazing program for a team that is barely a 5A

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1550 students they are solidly 5A. 

[Cougtalk]

  On 10/23/2021 at 7:48 PM, Separation Scientist said:

 

I think PNG and Ned ties for 4th. I don't know how tie is broken. Points I guess. 

So I think Crosby 1, BH 2, TC 3, Ned or PNG 4th. 

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HTH Nederland makes Playoffs. 

[MrFleet23]

  On 10/26/2021 at 2:39 PM, Cougtalk said:

1550 students they are solidly 5A. 

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Where you getting those numbers