The 32 Different Scenarios for 22-4A

[WOS87]

Okay, I'll try to make it easy for you guys....

There are only 5 games remaining that will have any bearing on the playoff qualifiers for District 22-4A:

Central vs PNG

Dayton vs. Nederland

Lumberton vs. LCM

PNG vs. Dayton

Nederland vs. Lumberton

There are 32 different possible outcomes of those 5 games...

Out of those 32 outcomes:

The District Champ:

is PN-G 21 and 1/3 times  (66.7%)

is Dayton 6 and 1/3 times  (19.8%)

is Lumberton 2 and 1/3 times  (7.3%)

is Nederland 2 times  (6.3%)

The District Runnerup:

is Lumberton 12 and 1/3 times  (38.5%)

is PN-G 7 times  (21.9%)

is Nederland 7 times  (21.9%)

is Dayton 5 and 2/3 times  (17.7%)

The 3rd Place Qualifier:

is Nederland 14 times  (43.8%)

is Lumberton 8 and 1/3 times  (26.0%)

is Dayton 6 and 2/3 times  (20.8%)

is PN-G 3 times  (9.4%)

The 4th Place Finisher:

is Dayton 13 and 1/3 times  (41.7%)

is Nederland 9 times  (28.1%)

is Lumberton 9 times  (28.1%)

will only occur for PNG in 2/3 of one time out of 32  (2.1%)

So the overall chances of each team making the playoffs is:

PNG  97.9%

Nederland 71.9%

Lumberton 71.9%

Dayton 58.3%

The only scenarios in which PNG MAY NOT qualify are #11 and 12, and even then, 2 out of 3 times they will still qualify.

The only scenarios in which Nederland MAY NOT qualify are #1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 17, 18, 20, 22, and 24

The only scenarios in which Lumberton MAY NOT qualify are #1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23 and 31

The only scenarios in which Dayton MAY NOT qualify are #1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 and 32

Now, for the 32 scenarios:

#1: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - 3-way tie between Lumberton, Ned, Dayton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

(Lumberton, Nederland and Dayton each have 1/3 of a chance of being the 4th place team)

#2: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Lumberton (6-1), 3rd - Dayton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#3: 1st - Dayton (6-1), 2nd - PNG (5-2), 3rd - Ned (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#4: 1st - Lumberton (6-1), 2nd - Dayton (6-1), 3rd - PNG (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

#5: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Dayton (5-2), 3rd - Ned (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

#6: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Lumberton (5-2), 3rd - Dayton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#7: 1st - Dayton (6-1), 2nd - PNG (5-2), 3rd - Ned (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#8: 1st - Dayton (6-1), 2nd - PNG (5-2), 3rd - Lumberton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

#9: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

#10: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Lumberton (6-1), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#11: 1st - Nederland (6-1), 2nd - 3-way tie between PNG, Lumberton and Dayton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

(PNG, Lumberton and Dayton each have 1/3 of a chance of being the 4th place team)

#12: 1st - Lumberton (6-1), 2nd - 3-way tie between PNG, Ned and Dayton (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

(PNG, Nederland and Dayton each have 1/3 of a chance of being the 4th place team)

#13: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (4-3)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

#14: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Lumberton (5-2), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#15: 1st - Nederland (6-1), 2nd - Dayton (5-2), 3rd - PNG (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#16: 1st - PNG (5-2), 2nd - Lumberton (5-2), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

Central beats PNG

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

#17: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - 3-way tie between Lumberton, Ned, Dayton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

(Lumberton, Nederland and Dayton each have about 1/3 of a chance of being the 4th place team)

#18: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Lumberton (6-1), 3rd - Dayton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#19: 1st - Dayton (6-1), 2nd - PNG (6-1), 3rd - Ned (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#20: 1st - 3-way tie between Lumberton, Dayton and PNG (6-1)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

(Lumberton, Dayton and PNG are definitely in.  Nederland is out)

#21: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Dayton (5-2), 3rd - Ned (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

#22: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Lumberton (5-2), 3rd - Dayton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#23: 1st - Dayton (6-1), 2nd - PNG (6-1), 3rd - Ned (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#24: 1st - Dayton (6-1), 2nd - PNG (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Dayton beats Ned

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

#25: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

#26: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Lumberton (6-1), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#27: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#28: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Lumberton (6-1), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

#29: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (4-3)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

#30: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Lumberton (5-2), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

PNG beats Dayton

Lumberton beats Ned

#31: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Dayton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Ned beats Lumberton

#32: 1st - PNG (6-1), 2nd - Lumberton (5-2), 3rd - Nederland (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

LCM beats Lumberton

Dayton beats PNG

Lumberton beats Ned

[KFDM COOP]

Good work as usual 87.

[WOS87]

So which of the 32 scenarios is the one everyone thinks is MOST LIKELY to be how it really goes down??

I'm going with #19

[jake94]

You, my friend, are a genius. Well done, sir, well done.

[bhawk]

if Lumberton goes 6-1 do we get a playoff spot no matter what

[WOS87]

if Lumberton goes 6-1 do we get a playoff spot no matter what

If any of the 4 teams finished 6-1, they are guaranteed a spot no matter what as there is no possible way that PNG, Lumberton, Dayton AND Nederland could all finish with 6-1 records or better. 

PNG and Lumberton could even lose both games and still qualify.  Scenarios #13 and #29 are the only ones in which a team with 3 losses qualifies and in both cases it would be Lumberton as they would hold the tiebreak edge over Dayton.

In Scenario #16, PNG could lose BOTH games and STILL be the District Champs

[PURPLE 4EVER]

So which of the 32 scenarios is the one everyone thinks is MOST LIKELY to be how it really goes down??

I'm going with #19

About two weeks ago, I had a feeling #19 would be the way it would finish up.

WOS87 is a prime example of why...

MATH gives you....

MORE POWER!!!!

Excellent job WOS87!!!

[Guest maverick24]

I like #20 Cant believe you still keep leaving the L-Train out!

[bullets13]

how long did it take you to come up with all this?  it would've taken me until after district was over. thanks for the input!

[babyshoe]

Great work 87.  Just amazing what you keep coming up with each day. 

[jake94]

how long did it take you to come up with all this?  it would've taken me until after district was over. thanks for the input!

At least you would have made sure you got it right, bullets13! hahahah Again, a great job by WOS87!

[24 over par]

great post 87

[NedDog]

That is amazing 87.  My head is still spinning. 

[NorthoftheBorder]

Well, this should remove all doubt as to what each teams chances are.  This needs to be a sticky post so that we can track it over the next two weeks.  After this Friday, you can eliminate those scenarios that still don't apply.  I think if Nederland beats Dayton and PNG beats Central, then it will be PNG, Lumberton & Nederland, its just a matter of seeding.

[bmtdc1996]

This is greatly appreciated but I have to say, someone has waaaay too much time on their hands. 

I am going with either #25 or #26.  Dayton stays home.  PNG wins and Nederland and Lumberton take the other two spots depending on their head to head matchup.

[Guest Sangster05]

scenario #25.

[akifan94]

Great job 87. I am personally hoping for #25, but see it being #19.

[goodsport]

WHAT! Great post. This should answer all the questions anybody has even after theis week. This took some time to do great job.

[tvc184]

The good news is, after this week, it drops down to 2 games and 4 different scenarios.

[NDNWarrior]

#25: 1st - PNG (7-0), 2nd - Nederland (6-1), 3rd - Lumberton (5-2)

PNG beats Central

Ned beats Dayton

Lumberton beats LCM

PNG beats Dayton

Ned beats Lumberton

This is the one I'll take!  Scalp 'em, NDN's!

[MikeEast]

Again the simplest possible solution for all 4 teams....

Win out and you are in the playoffs.

[PURPLE 4EVER]

The good news is, after this week, it drops down to 2 games and 4 different scenarios.

so true....

[bulldawg64]

well said mike, take care of home, and off to the

playoffs you shall roam!

[setxsportswhizz08]

how long did all of that take?

[KFDM COOP]

Thanks 87!