22-4A Playoff Hunt

[Guest Uhhh What?]

PNG 5-0                          Central and Dayton remaining

Lumberton 4-1                LCM and Nederland remaining

Dayton 4-1                    Nederland and PNG remaining

Nederland 4-1                Dayton and Lumberton remining

Gonna be a wild finish.  After PNG, it looks like Lumberton has the best shot at getting in. But, in this district, who knows?  Dayton and Nederland definitely have the toughest remaining schedule.  Should be interesting.  Good Luck to all teams involved.

[MikeEast]

PNG 5-0                          Central and Dayton remaining

Lumberton 4-1                 LCM and Nederland remaining

Dayton 4-1                     Nederland and PNG remaining

Nederland 4-1                 Dayton and Lumberton remining

Gonna be a wild finish.  After PNG, it looks like Lumberton has the best shot at getting in. But, in this district, who knows?  Dayton and Nederland definitely have the toughest remaining schedule.  Should be interesting.  Good Luck to all teams involved.

I think its pretty cool that the chips fell so that the top 4 teams meet up in the last 2 weeks of the season with Lumberton being a surprise force to be reckoned with.

This is a HUGE week.

IF I See it right,

If Nederland wins they are in and Lumberton is in. The last week will be for placement only.

If Dayton wins then Ned/Lumberton will have to duke it out for the 3rd spot.

If PNG loses AND Dayton wins then the PNG Dayton game would be for the DC..

How fun is that?

[Guest Penny]

I don't think a Ned win gets them in.  IF Dayton beats PNG the following week and Lumberton beats Ned in week 10, it's a three way tie at 5-2... goes to the points.

[MikeEast]

I don't think a Ned win gets them in.  IF Dayton beats PNG the following week and Lumberton beats Ned in week 10, it's a three way tie at 5-2... goes to the points.

If we win against Dayton then we go into week 10 with 1 loss, and assuming Lumberton wins they go into week 10 with 1 loss. Dayton would have 2 losses going into week 10. That would also mean that Dayton had lost head up to Nederland AND Lumberton. Dayton is STILL OUT even if they beat PNG. That so because they have losses to the teams that they have the same record as...

To expand....

(If they beat PNG) Dayton has only 2 losses but in thos scenario lost the head to head with Nederland and Lumberton so Dayton is OUT by head to head.

Lumberton and Nederland are IN and the game between the two is for 2nd and 3rd place.

Right?

[Guest maverick24]

I don't think a Ned win gets them in.  IF Dayton beats PNG the following week and Lumberton beats Ned in week 10, it's a three way tie at 5-2... goes to the points.

??????? 5-2   OH YOU THINK ned BEATS THE L-TRAIN I see us being 6-1 lol

I think a 3 way tie goes straight to points not head to head

[Guest Penny]

True, I forgot the head to head.  If Nederland and Lumberton win along with PNG those three would be in.  Good catch.

[MikeEast]

True, I forgot the head to head.  If Nederland and Lumberton win along with PNG those three would be in.  Good catch.

Next week, If Nederland wins and Lumberton wins they are in period, as will be PNG. Nothing else will matter except determining placement. In that scenario even if Dayton beats PNG, Dayton is out because they are tied with 2 losses with the loser of the Nederland/Lumberton game. And the loser of the Nederland/Lumberton game is STILL in by virtue of the head up against Dayton.

Of course that is JUST saying that is the case IF Nederland were to win against Dayton. Things will get really simple if it happens that way.

Its still pretty simple even in Dayton wins. Dayton is in, PNG is in and the winner of the Lumberton/Nederland game is in. There is pretty much no scenario where points will matter this year.

[tvc184]

Its still pretty simple even in Dayton wins. Dayton is in, PNG is in and the winner of the Lumberton/Nederland game is in. There is pretty much no scenario where points will matter this year.

Check this out for points on a tie-breaker:

Lumberton beats LC-M but loses to Nederland.  5-2 with losses to PN-G and Nederland.

Nederland loses to Dayton but beats Lumberton 5-2 with loses to PN-G and Dayton.

Dayton beats Nederland but loses to PN-G. 5-2 with loses to Lumberton and PN-G.

PN-G beats Dayton. The game with Central is meaningless because PN-G would end at 7-0 or 6-1 and either would win district outright.

That leaves three teams tied at 5-2 for second and third place. Nederland beat Lumberton who beat Dayton who beat Nederland. No team beat both other teams that they tied with so no head-to-head.

Then it goes to common points.

Did I miss anything?

[Guest Penny]

This is the most plausible scenario where points would come into play.  The other would be if PNG loses to both Central and Dayton.

PNG finished at 5-2, losses to Central/Dayton

Dayton finishes at 5-2 losses to Lumberton and Ned

Ned finishes at 5-2 losses to PNG and Lumberton

In this scenario Lumberton is the DC and the other three go to points since there is no head to head winners.

This seems less likely, but could happen.

If Nederland beats Dayton and PNG wins, then Ned/Lumberton/PNG are in automatically.  The Ned/Dayton game is the key.  Dayton's season would be over with a loss to Nederland if PNG beats Central.

[That Asian Guy]

AHHHHH!!!!!

so many scenarios.

is this team wins then that team is in. but if this team losses then that team and the other team is in. but if the other team losses then that team and that other team is in. haha.

lets just go with.

Ned is going to beat Dayton and PN-G will beat Central.

thats it, over.

3 Playoff teams

PN-G

Lumberton

Nederland

[dayton]

Well I guess that settles it....let's roll out the basketballs. :-\

[MikeEast]

I like your scenario the best AG, but this thread is about the possibilites. 8)

Really the only major kink would be for PNG to lose to Central. As long as that does not happen, it should not come down to points and head to heads should decide it all.

[WOS87]

There are 8 total district games remaining in 22-4A in the regular season which means there are 256 possible combinations of outcomes for those 8 games...

PN-G qualifies for the playoffs in 248 out of 256 of those possible outcomes (96.88%)

Nederland qualifies in 180 out of 256 possible outcomes (70.31%)

Lumberton qualifies in 180 out of 256 possible outcomes (70.31%)

Dayton qualifies in 160 out of 256 possible outcomes (62.50%)

No other team has any chance of making the playoffs other than these four.

The likelihood of the various combinations qualifying is as follows:

PNG, Ned and Lumberton - 37.50%

PNG, Ned and Dayton - 29.69%

PNG, Lumberton and Dayton - 29.69%

Ned, Dayton and Lumberton - 3.12%

PN-G is almost guaranteed a playoff spot right now.  The ONLY way they can possibly be kept out is if:

1.  PNG loses to both Central and Dayton AND Dayton beats PNG by at least 13 points, possibly more.

2.  Nederland has to beat Dayton

3.  Lumberton has to beat LC-M

If any of the above things don't happen, PN-G is automatically in and going Division I.

[PURPLE 4EVER]

There are 8 total district games remaining in 22-4A in the regular season which means there are 256 possible combinations of outcomes for those 8 games...

PN-G qualifies for the playoffs in 248 out of 256 of those possible outcomes (96.88%)

Nederland qualifies in 180 out of 256 possible outcomes (70.31%)

Lumberton qualifies in 180 out of 256 possible outcomes (70.31%)

Dayton qualifies in 160 out of 256 possible outcomes (62.50%)

No other team has any chance of making the playoffs other than these four.

The likelihood of the various combinations qualifying is as follows:

PNG, Ned and Lumberton - 37.50%

PNG, Ned and Dayton - 29.69%

PNG, Lumberton and Dayton - 29.69%

Ned, Dayton and Lumberton - 3.12%

PN-G is almost guaranteed a playoff spot right now.  The ONLY way they can possibly be kept out is if:

1.  PNG loses to both Central and Dayton AND Dayton beats PNG by at least 13 points, possibly more.

2.  Nederland has to beat Dayton

3.  Lumberton has to beat LC-M

If any of the above things don't happen, PN-G is automatically in and going Division I.

MATH GENIUS!!!

As a math theacher...

WOS87...

YOU ARE THE MAN!!!

This weeks game for Dayton is practically a must win for the Broncos.

A Bronco loss and an Indian win will eliminate the Broncos.

Nederland will still have life even if they lose.

If Nederland beats Lumberton then Nederland "probably" makes the playoffs.

[beaumontballer44]

If Lumberton wins out and dayton beats PN-G and these three teams have one district loss on the season who would be first? Dayton lost to Lumberton and Lumberton lost to PN-G and PN-G lost to dayton. 3 way tie for first?

[tvc184]

If Lumberton wins out and dayton beats PN-G and these three teams have one district loss on the season who would be first? Dayton lost to Lumberton and Lumberton lost to PN-G and PN-G lost to dayton. 3 way tie for first?

Yes, the school with the largest enrollment will be Division I and the two smaller ones will be Division II. With those two teams being tied, it will be head-to-head on which one goes as the Div II champion and which is the runner up.