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Baytown Lee at Santa Fe Game Thread/Lee wins 34-10!

WOSgrad

By WOSgrad
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Guest UHCoog14

Guest UHCoog14

Posted
Posted
[quote name="panamamyers" post="1312376" timestamp="1351369376"]
Baytown Sun says he and Cedeno both got hurt early in the first quarter.
I wonder if they were removed more for precautionary reasons since it was Santa Fe.
If Lee can win out then they would probably sneak into the playoffs.
[/quote]

Not if GCM wins out.
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fwoodfan

fwoodfan

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[quote name="panamamyers" post="1312865" timestamp="1351399211"]
a three way tie with fw, lee and gcm, fw and lee could have the points.  gcm beat lee by 15, fw beat gcm by 17
if lee beats fw by 14 then lee would be -1 and gcm would be -2, fw +3
not likely that lee wins out either way, but they still control their own destiny in a sense...unless gp somehow beats dawson
[/quote]

Even if Lee beats Friendswood their district record would most likely be 3-4 because I cant see Texas City getting beat. Honestly, I thought Texas City was more impressive than Dawson -- more speed and a better defense. 

Lee is 2-3 with Friendswood and Texas City Left.  At best that's a 1-1 finish. Friendswood played Dawson
tight so, I'm not sure even 1-1 is likely.

GCM is 2-3 in district with Galena Park and Santa Fe left. At worst they should go 1-1 (Santa Fe should be a guaranteed win) and end 3-4 with the tie breaker over Lee

Friendswood is 3-2 with Lee and Galveston Ball remaining.  They should win both, but if Lee pulls the upset they would finish 1-1 and 4-3 in district and be the outright 3rd place team.

I dont see much room for Lee unless somehow GCM loses both of its last two games.
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gary-us-bonds

gary-us-bonds

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Never said it was likely.
I just said that Lee controls their own destiny.
FW had enough trouble with GP and Lee played GP down to a last second fg....so I don't think there is a huge gap between those two if Lee plays up their capabilities.
Of course TC is going to be tough to beat.  That's why they play the games.
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fwoodfan

fwoodfan

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[quote name="panamamyers" post="1313587" timestamp="1351518050"]
Never said it was likely.
I just said that Lee controls their own destiny.
FW had enough trouble with GP and Lee played GP down to a last second fg....so I don't think there is a huge gap between those two if Lee plays up their capabilities.
Of course TC is going to be tough to beat.  That's why they play the games.
[/quote]

Fair enough.  But, I think you are underestimating Friendswood by a good bit.  Against common district opponents so far Friendswood is 3-1 with wins over Santa Fe, GCM, and Galena Park and a loss to Dawson.  Lee is 1-3 against the same opponents with  a win only over Santa Fe.

Yes the Galena Park game appears close and God knows neither defense showed up, but Friendswood scored 79 in a win and GP scored late to close the margin to 16 points from 23.  The game wasnt as close as it appears on paper.  In contrast Lee lost to GP scoring only 35 against a weak defense.

The Friendswood Santa Fe game was over by the end of the first quarter with FW up by more than 40 at half time and GP on 0. Santa Fe scored twice in the second half against FW's 2s and 3s.  The final was 62 - 14. Lee beat Santa Fe 34-10.  Again, Lee scored 34 against a D that surrendered 62 to Friendswood

The FW v. GCM game ended 24-7 and was FW's best defensive performance.  GCM helped with a bunch of turnovers.  GCM beat Lee 36 -21.  Lee scored almost as many against GCM as FW.  This game may be the better game to compare Lee and FW.

The FW v. Dawson game was close until the last 5 minutes of the 4th with Friendswood having a chance to tie the game with 6 minutes left.  Friendswood's O put up 33 against Dawson.  The Lee v. Dawson game was a good one, but Lee only scored 7.

In games against common opponents Friendswood scored 198 pts and and Lee scored 97 pts.  So against the same teams Friendswood out scored Lee by 101 pts over four games.

Defensively, Lee was marginally better than Friendswood.  Against common opponents FW gave up 126 pts to Lee's 117.  So Lee held the same opponents to 9 fewer points over four games.

I think Friendswood is significantly better on offense than Lee and that Lee is marginally better than Friendswood on defense.

With Lee having homefield advantage and playing for their playoff lives I expect the game to be close.  But, I think Friendswood has to be a clear favorite. A Lee victory would be an upset, but its certainly not impossible.
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gary-us-bonds

gary-us-bonds

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I doubt that the Lee defense is better than Friendswood's defense by any stretch.

Lee played without Zellars and Cedeno in the Santa Fe game, so throw that one out.

I have no doubt that Friendswood would beat Lee 8 out of 10 times probably, and TC would beat them 19/20.  That leaves that 1% chance that Lee wins them both.
Assuming Lee beats FW by 14, then Lee controls their own destiny, and GCM does not....that's all I am trying to get across here.
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fwoodfan

fwoodfan

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[quote name="panamamyers" post="1315062" timestamp="1351642349"]
I doubt that the Lee defense is better than Friendswood's defense by any stretch.

Lee played without Zellars and Cedeno in the Santa Fe game, so throw that one out.

I have no doubt that Friendswood would beat Lee 8 out of 10 times probably, and TC would beat them 19/20.  That leaves that 1% chance that Lee wins them both.
Assuming Lee beats FW by 14, then Lee controls their own destiny, and GCM does not....that's all I am trying to get across here.
[/quote]

Point taken. Lee does control its own destiny.  I think your odds are pretty much right on, but because Lee is playing for its playoff chance I'd give them a better chance against FWood.  I put their chances at 30% of beating Friendswood.
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