Guest Penny Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 I'm not an alarmist, but this is not heading in a good direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adminbaberuth Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sable316 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Ike: How much should we trust the three-day forecast? We're now probably less than three days from Hurricane Ike, which now has 90 mph winds, making landfall along the Texas coast. The natural question to ask is, can we have confidence in the hurricane center's forecast near Port Lavaca? There are several ways to answer that question. Foremost, we can look at the average error for three-day forecasts, and find that it's about 160 miles. Galveston is only about 130 miles from Port Lavaca. Now we'll look at the forecasts for Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Gustav. Hurricane Katrina Date of landfall: Aug. 29, 10 a.m. Actual landfall: Louisiana-Mississippi border Forecast landfall: Fort Walton Beach, Fl. Forecast error: 190 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 115 mph Actual winds at landfall: 125 mph Hurricane Rita Date of landfall: Sept. 24, 4 a.m. Actual landfall: Johnson's Bayou, La. Forecast location: Palacios Forecast error: 200 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 140 mph Actual winds at landfall: 115 mph Hurricane Wilma Date of landfall: Oct. 24, 7 a.m. Actual landfall: Cape Romano, Fla. Forecast landfall: Bonita Springs, Fla. Forecast error: 35 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 100 mph Actual winds at landfall: 120 mph Hurricane Gustav Date of landfall: Sept. 1, 8 a.m. Actual landfall: Cocodrie, La. Forecast landfall: Cocodrie, La. Forecast error: 0 miles Forecast winds at landfall: 120 mph Actual winds at landfall: 110 mph blogs.chron.com/sciguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horndawg Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Bad thing is it's moving NW at 8, which means the High is weakening..Not good!!!! Coop do you still think it will speed up faster than 8? Or think it will continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted September 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 May be tomorrow before it speeds up. I have landfall at Freeport Sat. Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvc184 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Now we'll look at the forecasts for Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Gustav. All that stuff is just gibberish. They don't show when they got those predictions as opposed to the time of landfall. Forty-eight hours before Rita landed, it was not predicted to his Palacios. If you want to go back in time, the predictions five days ago were for Ike to hit the east coast of Florida. So I guess you can say they have a 1,500 mile wrong prediction. I don't start paying attention to predictions until the storm is less than three days out. Anything other than that is just to get people alerted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adminbaberuth Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Would someone give the % of Jefferson County losing power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piratediehard Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Man this thing needs to move more west or we might be in trouble!! I have also noticed that all the models have moved more east. GFDL has it going right over Galveston Bay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvc184 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Would someone give the % of Jefferson County losing power? There is no way to even guess when we can't know where the storm will make landfall. If it stays on the current predicted course, we could see Edouard like conditions around here and maybe a little worse. How much lost power back in August when it hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvc184 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Man this thing needs to move more west or we might be in trouble!! I have also noticed that all the models have moved more east. GFDL has it going right over Galveston Bay.. Shades of Rita. In the words of Yogi Berra, this is like deja vu all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sable316 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 They were the three day forecasts from the National Hurricane Center Hence the Ike: How much should we trust the three-day forecast? at the beginning of the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted September 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 NEW NHC TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LANDFALL CAT 4 JUST SW OF BAY CITY JUST EAST OF PORT LAVACA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PNG70 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Houston..WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WOSHIGHc/o2001 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 NEW NHC TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LANDFALL CAT 4 JUST SW OF BAY CITY JUST EAST OF PORT LAVACA!! Coop is this trend of moving north every few hours going to continue? Is that "whatever" moving away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIGMO44 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted September 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Hurricane Force winds extend out to over 90 miles now from the Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevieray Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Any idea of how much rain we can expect in the DFW area? We have had a lot of rain the last two days and a severe downpour could cause major flooding issues. I know my question isn't as important as what SE Texas is facing, but I just want to be prepared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adminbaberuth Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Coop, I wish no harm to my friends and relatives in Louisiana, but could it move that far east by Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted September 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Yes it could! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvc184 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 Yes it could! Rita did and I think it was Andrew in 1992 where we had our first mass evacuation as it was supposed to clobber us and it went so far east the last two days that we didn't get a cloud out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KFDM COOP Posted September 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 [move]A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON, LA TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN 36-48 HOURS!![/move] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PNG70 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 [move]A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON, LA TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS WITHIN 36-48 HOURS!![/move] Not Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest kosmo Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 May be tomorrow before it speeds up. I have landfall at Freeport Sat. Morning. That said, what can we expect here in the triange if the storm hits in freeport??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WOSHIGHc/o2001 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 NEW NHC TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LANDFALL CAT 4 JUST SW OF BAY CITY JUST EAST OF PORT LAVACA!! So...Exactly Rita's path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tvc184 Posted September 10, 2008 Report Share Posted September 10, 2008 May be tomorrow before it speeds up. I have landfall at Freeport Sat. Morning. That said, what can we expect here in the triange if the storm hits in freeport??? Up to Category 1 hurricane conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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