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**HURRICANE DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL**

KFDM COOP
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CardinalFan

CardinalFan

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This time in 2005, we were on the "E" storm, and with the storm fixing to roll off of Africa, and developing "VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC" as put by the NHC, we will be easily pacing the 2005 record breaking season through the end of July.  The H storm in 05 formed August 2.  Will the 2008 tropics keep pace? 

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KFDM COOP

KFDM COOP

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154013W_sm.gif

HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL042008

400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE

SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM

BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF

MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO

AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY

SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS

CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA

PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...

265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.

THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO

OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE

LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160

MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH

THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS

986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH

TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE

TEXAS COASTS. 

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000

PM CDT.

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Bulldog92

Bulldog92

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That track is crazy. Don't believe the hype and get ready. It's not gonna go that far south. I'd say between Matagorda Bay and Galveston with SETX getting the right front of it. I hope they're right, but it just seems unlikely that it'll track that far south...

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Razor

Razor

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Lordy 92, don't be so pessimistic! LOL...some of the folks I work with think that every tropical system that even gets to the Caribbean is going to directly hit SE Texas...let's all be aware and prepared, but not scared the entire season

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Bulldog92

Bulldog92

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Lordy 92, don't be so pessimistic! LOL...some of the folks I work with think that every tropical system that even gets to the Caribbean is going to directly hit SE Texas...let's all be aware and prepared, but not scared the entire season

I'm not being pessimistic or scared...and I'm nowhere near you guys. I'm a realist and for a while, it looked like Dolly was gonna be a lot stronger than it is and it very well could have headed farther north than it has if she had gotten stronger sooner like a lot of storms have in the past few years. I'm glad it didn't because that's the last thing you all need right now. My concern was legitimate, so try not to be so critical.  ;D

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KFDM COOP

KFDM COOP

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BULLETIN

HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL042008

1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

...DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM

BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF

MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO

AND THE UNITED STATES.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY

SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS

CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA

PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...

60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD

BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR SOON.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING

THE COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE

CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE

LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH

IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 58 MPH...92 KM/HR

SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE

PLANE WAS IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12

INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE

RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY

AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1200 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...97.0 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400

PM CDT.

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