Snapshot day (realignment)

[purple reign]

11 hours ago, OlDawg said:

Lufkin in with AMC, CS, KP & some others, and move some of the current 12-5AD1 to R4 districts?

Have to make room for IC & Randle. Maybe with Angleton, GB & others?

Just seems like UIL may have to add a 5AD1 district to R3 from GHA area.

Like you said, it will take some major reshuffling with many more schools in the GHA coming in to 5AD1 than leaving, I think maybe 3 teams will be dropping down, NC Porter (1831) Kempner (1813) and Kingwood Park which I haven't seen a number for yet. I don't think Iowa Colony has enough yet for D1. These are the  schools in the GHA new to 5AD1 that seem to have 5AD1 numbers:

Spring Westfiield (2145)

FB Dulles (2132)

FB Hightower (2220)

LC Randle (2021)

LC Foster (2227)

LC George Ranch (2217)

GC Memorial (2202)

New Caney (2051)

Katy Freeman (2066)

South Houston (2063)

Possibly Manvel (2243)

So if the DCTF numbers are accurate, there will be a net gain of 7 or more schools in the GHA in D1. Of course the majority of District 10  (mostly HISD) have below 5AD1 numbers, but the UIL, I feel pretty sure will continue to let them opt up.

[setxathlete14]

When does this get finalized?

[dBerrySports]

8 hours ago, setxathlete14 said:

When does this get finalized?

The enrollments were supposed to have been submitted by last Friday. Cutoff numbers will be released sometime before the state championship games. The official realignment is the first Wednesday in February.

[AggiesAreWe]

Carl Padilla is predicting 6A cutoff to be between 2200-2215.

If it does come in at 2200, then these schools move up to 6A:

Crosby

Beaumont West Brook

Pasadena

Angleton

Baytown Sterling

La Porte

[dBerrySports]

5A D1 Region 3 is gonna be insane!

• Randle
• PA Memorial
• Angleton
• La Porte
• Iowa Colony (maybe?)
• Fort Bend Hightower
• Manvel (maybe?)

Even without the 2 Alvin ISD teams, that would be a crazy tough region.

[AggiesAreWe]

11 hours ago, purple reign said:

Like you said, it will take some major reshuffling with many more schools in the GHA coming in to 5AD1 than leaving, I think maybe 3 teams will be dropping down, NC Porter (1831) Kempner (1813) and Kingwood Park which I haven't seen a number for yet. I don't think Iowa Colony has enough yet for D1. These are the  schools in the GHA new to 5AD1 that seem to have 5AD1 numbers:

Spring Westfiield (2145)

FB Dulles (2132)

FB Hightower (2220)

LC Randle (2021)

LC Foster (2227)

LC George Ranch (2217)

GC Memorial (2202)

New Caney (2051)

Katy Freeman (2066)

South Houston (2063)

Possibly Manvel (2243)

So if the DCTF numbers are accurate, there will be a net gain of 7 or more schools in the GHA in D1. Of course the majority of District 10  (mostly HISD) have below 5AD1 numbers, but the UIL, I feel pretty sure will continue to let them opt up.

According to Carl Padilla, several of these teams you have listed will be 6A.

He is predicting 6A cutoff to be between 2200-2215.

[AggiesAreWe]

4 minutes ago, dBerrySports said:

5A D1 Region 3 is gonna be insane!

• Randle
• PA Memorial
• Angleton
• La Porte
• Iowa Colony (maybe?)
• Fort Bend Hightower
• Manvel (maybe?)

Even without the 2 Alvin ISD teams, that would be a crazy tough region.

If 6A comes in at 2200 like being predicted, then Angleton, LP, Hightower and Manvel will be 6A.

[setxathlete14]

On 11/10/2025 at 6:47 PM, AggiesAreWe said:

So all three schools that opted up last realignment (BC, HJ, Liberty) all have higher enrollment than every school in the local 4A D2 district. 

Lumberton has almost 200 on lcm if i read correctly. Same district. This could get interesting 

[dBerrySports]

18 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

If 6A comes in at 2200 like being predicted, then Angleton, LP, Hightower and Manvel will be 6A.

Interesting if that happens, I wonder what the 5A D1/D2 cutoff would be. 

[Darth Texas]

What was Iowa Colony’s number? 

[AggiesAreWe]

7 minutes ago, dBerrySports said:

Interesting if that happens, I wonder what the 5A D1/D2 cutoff would be. 

If 6A does come in at 2200, then I see 5A DI/DII cutoff somewhere around 1850.

Last realignment it was 1903. 6A cutoff was 2275.

[navydawg31]

1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Carl Padilla is predicting 6A cutoff to be between 2200-2215.

If it does come in at 2200, then these schools move up to 6A:

Crosby

Beaumont West Brook

Pasadena

Angleton

Baytown Sterling

La Porte

2200 wow.. big drop from last one. But if he is right this will shake up a lot! 

[AggiesAreWe]

10 minutes ago, navydawg31 said:

2200 wow.. big drop from last one. But if he is right this will shake up a lot! 

He has been pretty accurate over the years. We will see.

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

1 hour ago, Darth Texas said:

What was Iowa Colony’s number? 

1879

[Darth Texas]

25 minutes ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

1879

That would have been 5ad1 under current cutoffs, right? 

[AggiesAreWe]

3 minutes ago, Darth Texas said:

That would have been 5ad1 under current cutoffs, right? 

Last cutoff that would be 5A DII. Cutoff was 1903 for DI.

If 6A ends up being 2200, then 5A DI will likely drop to around 1850. So 5A DI could be 1850-2199.

[navydawg31]

6 hours ago, AggiesAreWe said:

He has been pretty accurate over the years. We will see.

I wanna say he was dead accurate 2 alignments ago…. 

[oldschool2]

What are the Carl Padilla projected cutoff enrollment numbers for each classification?

[AggiesAreWe]

21 minutes ago, oldschool2 said:

What are the Carl Padilla projected cutoff enrollment numbers for each classification?

Haven't seen those. He is only discussing 6A numbers right now. He works from top down like the UIL does in setting the numbers.

[oldschool2]

1 hour ago, AggiesAreWe said:

Haven't seen those. He is only discussing 6A numbers right now. He works from top down like the UIL does in setting the numbers.

10-4.  I just figured he would have predicted others since his 3A projection came out.

[AggiesAreWe]

Just now, oldschool2 said:

10-4.  I just figured he would have predicted others since his 3A projection came out.

I haven't seen any.

From my experience, getting 6A numbers set is basically the starting point and everything falls into place there after.

The post I saw from Padilla stated he had every 6A school snapshot number but 5 and was predicting 6A cutoff to be between 2200-2215

[Bread]

7 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I haven't seen any.

From my experience, getting 6A numbers set is basically the starting point and everything falls into place there after.

The post I saw from Padilla stated he had every 6A school snapshot number but 5 and was predicting 6A cutoff to be between 2200-2215

PLEASE be over 2210.5 lol

[oldschool2]

5 minutes ago, AggiesAreWe said:

I haven't seen any.

From my experience, getting 6A numbers set is basically the starting point and everything falls into place there after.

The post I saw from Padilla stated he had every 6A school snapshot number but 5 and was predicting 6A cutoff to be between 2200-2215

I could have sworn that I was told that Padilla is predicting the 3AD1/2 cutoff at 375.  Not sure where that information was given or read.. but I'm almost positive I was told that a few days ago.  I know getting old is hell... but memory hasn't been an issue yet.  At least.. I don't remember it being an issue.