Ridiculously Early 5AD2 '21 Playoff Prediction

[AledoAlumni]

2018 Prediction

Correct playoff seed 16 out of 64 = 25%
Correct playoff team (total) 45 out of 64 = 70.3%
Missed playoffs 19 out of 64 = 29.7%


2019 Prediction

Correct playoff seed 15 out of 64 = 23.4%
Correct playoff team (total) 51 out of 64 = 79.6%
Missed playoffs 13 out of 64 = 20.3%


2020 Prediction

Correct playoff seed 27 out of 64 = 42.2%
Correct playoff team (total) 46 out of 64 = 71.8%
Missed playoffs 18 out of 64 = 28.2%


Well, here we go


w1 El Paso Parkland / f2 El Paso Austin
r4  Fort Worth Southwest / t3 Canyon Randall
w2 El Paso Burges / f1 El Paso Hanks
r3 Wichita Falls Rider / t4 Fort Worth North Side
w3 Lubbock Cooper / f4 Fort Worth Poly
r2 El Paso Bowie  / t1 El Paso Ysleta
w4 Grapevine / f3 Abilene Wylie
r1 Canutillo / t2 El Paso Andress

w5 Aledo / f6 Dallas Hillcrest
r8  North Forney / t7 Denison
w6 South Oak Cliff / f5 Arlington Seguin
r7 Lucas Lovejoy / t8 Corsicana
w7 Frisco / f8 Royse City
r6 Mesquite Poteet / t5 Everman
w8 Ennis / f7 Frisco Liberty
r5 Mansfield Timberview / t6 Dallas Kimball

w9 Texarkana / f10 Bryan Rudder
r12 Nederland / t11 Galena Park
w10 Huntsville  / f9 Whitehouse
r11 Fort Bend Willowridge / t12  Barbers Hill
w11 Fort Bend Marshall / f12 Port Neches-Groves
r10  A&M Consolidated / t9 Marshall
w12 Crosby / f11 Houston Sterling
r9  Longview Pine Tree / t10 Montgomery 

w13 Brenham / f14 Austin Northeast
r16 Sharyland Pioneer / t15 Kerrville Tivy
w14 Liberty Hill / f13 Leander Glenn
r15  Alamo Heights / t16 Mercedes
w15 Boerne Champion / f16 Edcouch-Elsa
r14 Austin McCallum / t13 Georgetown Eastview
w16 Sharyland / f15 Medina Valley
r13 Rouse / t14 Marble Falls

[prepballfan]

I love any post that starts off with ridiculously early!!!!!!! Gotta read em...

[prepballfan]

On 4/22/2021 at 11:28 AM, aledoalumni said:

2018 Prediction

Correct playoff seed 16 out of 64 = 25%
Correct playoff team (total) 45 out of 64 = 70.3%
Missed playoffs 19 out of 64 = 29.7%


2019 Prediction

Correct playoff seed 15 out of 64 = 23.4%
Correct playoff team (total) 51 out of 64 = 79.6%
Missed playoffs 13 out of 64 = 20.3%


2020 Prediction

Correct playoff seed 27 out of 64 = 42.2%
Correct playoff team (total) 46 out of 64 = 71.8%
Missed playoffs 18 out of 64 = 28.2%


Well, here we go


w1 El Paso Parkland / f2 El Paso Austin
r4  Fort Worth Southwest / t3 Canyon Randall
w2 El Paso Burges / f1 El Paso Hanks
r3 Wichita Falls Rider / t4 Fort Worth North Side
w3 Lubbock Cooper / f4 Fort Worth Poly
r2 El Paso Bowie  / t1 El Paso Ysleta
w4 Grapevine / f3 Abilene Wylie
r1 Canutillo / t2 El Paso Andress

w5 Aledo / f6 Dallas Hillcrest
r8  North Forney / t7 Denison
w6 South Oak Cliff / f5 Arlington Seguin
r7 Lucas Lovejoy / t8 Corsicana
w7 Frisco / f8 Royse City
r6 Mesquite Poteet / t5 Everman
w8 Ennis / f7 Frisco Liberty
r5 Mansfield Timberview / t6 Dallas Kimball

w9 Texarkana / f10 Bryan Rudder
r12 Nederland / t11 Galena Park
w10 Huntsville  / f9 Whitehouse
r11 Fort Bend Willowridge / t12  Barbers Hill
w11 Fort Bend Marshall / f12 Port Neches-Groves
r10  A&M Consolidated / t9 Marshall
w12 Crosby / f11 Houston Sterling
r9  Longview Pine Tree / t10 Montgomery 

w13 Brenham / f14 Austin Northeast
r16 Sharyland Pioneer / t15 Kerrville Tivy
w14 Liberty Hill / f13 Leander Glenn
r15  Alamo Heights / t16 Mercedes
w15 Boerne Champion / f16 Edcouch-Elsa
r14 Austin McCallum / t13 Georgetown Eastview
w16 Sharyland / f15 Medina Valley
r13 Rouse / t14 Marble Falls

I agree with our district by the way just do not know the order yet with Crosby losing so many seniors and PNG ringing in a new QB even though he was picked as a top 50 QB in Texas for his class. This group of PNG kids are the ones who has dominated since inception in 7th. They will be juniors and many were starters on last years team. Our defense wasn't very good last year but it was the youngest in the entire Faircloth era. 9 starters back from last season on defense. The Quarterback will be introduced to the varsity district but most who watch underclassmen games in our district are already familiar with him. Just for those who are not his name is Cole Crippen. Cole is big and fast and a very accurate passer. He has a very accurate deep ball as well. His freshman season the team went undefeated and outscored their opponents 485-86 on the season. This PNG team has had a very good defense all the way through as well. I think you will see a solid Indians team this season and a peak the following season. For those interested in seeing next years starter here he is. 

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[AledoAlumni]

17 hours ago, prepballfan said:

I agree with our district by the way just do not know the order yet with Crosby losing so many seniors and PNG ringing in a new QB even though he was picked as a top 50 QB in Texas for his class. 

I have Crosby the nod bc I believe those extra weeks in the playoffs make a difference. Regarding PNG, it seems when I read about them the talk is about fixing the defense. Or something related to it. I will say that I enjoyed y'alls 1st round game! It was really exciting.  

[NHSBulldogFan]

18 hours ago, prepballfan said:

I agree with our district by the way just do not know the order yet with Crosby losing so many seniors and PNG ringing in a new QB even though he was picked as a top 50 QB in Texas for his class. This group of PNG kids are the ones who has dominated since inception in 7th. They will be juniors and many were starters on last years team. Our defense wasn't very good last year but it was the youngest in the entire Faircloth era. 9 starters back from last season on defense. The Quarterback will be introduced to the varsity district but most who watch underclassmen games in our district are already familiar with him. Just for those who are not his name is Cole Crippen. Cole is big and fast and a very accurate passer. He has a very accurate deep ball as well. His freshman season the team went undefeated and outscored their opponents 485-86 on the season. This PNG team has had a very good defense all the way through as well. I think you will see a solid Indians team this season and a peak the following season. For those interested in seeing next years starter here he is. 

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Meanwhile across the tracks were losing many of our skill players but bring back the biggest name of 2020 Kyndon Fuselier...much of the defense is back led by 2nd team All State LB Jaice Beck

[purpleeagle]

Very impressed with the New QB for PN.-G. 

[Cougar14.2]

On 4/24/2021 at 9:50 PM, prepballfan said:

I agree with our district by the way just do not know the order yet with Crosby losing so many seniors and PNG ringing in a new QB even though he was picked as a top 50 QB in Texas for his class. This group of PNG kids are the ones who has dominated since inception in 7th. They will be juniors and many were starters on last years team. Our defense wasn't very good last year but it was the youngest in the entire Faircloth era. 9 starters back from last season on defense. The Quarterback will be introduced to the varsity district but most who watch underclassmen games in our district are already familiar with him. Just for those who are not his name is Cole Crippen. Cole is big and fast and a very accurate passer. He has a very accurate deep ball as well. His freshman season the team went undefeated and outscored their opponents 485-86 on the season. This PNG team has had a very good defense all the way through as well. I think you will see a solid Indians team this season and a peak the following season. For those interested in seeing next years starter here he is. 

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Everybody in the district pretty much lost all of their offensive production from last year, of the playoff teams Crosby probably took it the worst on the defensive side of the ball. Transfers are always welcome but we won't be looking for players for the next 5 or 6 years, we'll just be reloading. Crosby is going to field one of the more inexperienced teams I can remember but they have a bunch of talent on both sides of the ball and three games against Carthage, Manvel and PAM to get ready for district play. The biggest key for Crosby will be the development of some of the younger linemen. If Crosby's staff gets it figured out early then watch out, the Cougars may be Buffalo hunting for another shot at the title game. 

As for PNG, every year the talk is about the new quarterback. You absolutely need one to have a legitimate shot at a deep run but if feels like Indian fans are more concerned with passing yards than running the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing defense which is how you go deep in the playoffs. Figured PNG would've seen that with the way RJ controlled games with his running ability. Defense may have 9 starters back but they'll still be at a disadvantage the way PNG plays offense. Even when Riordan had great athletes on the defensive side of the ball we struggled to keep team off the scoreboard due to the sheer number of opportunities the opposing offenses got. 

[Cougar14.2]

Agree with the OP but I would give Montgomery the nod in district 10 over Huntsville and A&M Con. Huntsville did it with the interior of their defensive line for the last three years and those kids have moved on.

It's basically FB Marshall vs Aledo in the title game for the 3rd time in four years. 

[AledoAlumni]

4 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

Agree with the OP but I would give Montgomery the nod in district 10 over Huntsville and A&M Con. Huntsville did it with the interior of their defensive line for the last three years and those kids have moved on.

It's basically FB Marshall vs Aledo in the title game for the 3rd time in four years. 

I dont trust Montgomery as much as I do those other two programs but you could be right. 

[prepballfan]

6 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

Everybody in the district pretty much lost all of their offensive production from last year, of the playoff teams Crosby probably took it the worst on the defensive side of the ball. Transfers are always welcome but we won't be looking for players for the next 5 or 6 years, we'll just be reloading. Crosby is going to field one of the more inexperienced teams I can remember but they have a bunch of talent on both sides of the ball and three games against Carthage, Manvel and PAM to get ready for district play. The biggest key for Crosby will be the development of some of the younger linemen. If Crosby's staff gets it figured out early then watch out, the Cougars may be Buffalo hunting for another shot at the title game. 

As for PNG, every year the talk is about the new quarterback. You absolutely need one to have a legitimate shot at a deep run but if feels like Indian fans are more concerned with passing yards than running the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing defense which is how you go deep in the playoffs. Figured PNG would've seen that with the way RJ controlled games with his running ability. Defense may have 9 starters back but they'll still be at a disadvantage the way PNG plays offense. Even when Riordan had great athletes on the defensive side of the ball we struggled to keep team off the scoreboard due to the sheer number of opportunities the opposing offenses got. 

These kiddos coming up has played solid defense all the way through. We were very young last season and should be better in succession the next two years in a row. The majority of the o line will be back as well this season.

[PNGFaithful]

1 hour ago, prepballfan said:

These kiddos coming up has played solid defense all the way through. We were very young last season and should be better in succession the next two years in a row. The majority of the o line will be back as well this season.

Sorry, we say the same BS every year. We have success at the lower level, but when they get to varsity the lack of defensive fundamentals magnifies!! PNG DOES ZERO LIVE TACKLING IN PRACTICE!! ZERO!! And it shows every Friday night!!

[dillonpanthers]

2 hours ago, PNGFaithful said:

PNG DOES ZERO LIVE TACKLING IN PRACTICE!! ZERO!! And it shows every Friday night!!

Really? Wow. Has that always been the case?

[PNGFaithful]

23 minutes ago, dillonpanthers said:

Really? Wow. Has that always been the case?

Since Faircloth has been at PNG. It shows in games. 

[dillonpanthers]

1 hour ago, PNGFaithful said:

Since Faircloth has been at PNG. It shows in games. 

Crazy 

[prepballfan]

22 hours ago, PNGFaithful said:

Sorry, we say the same BS every year. We have success at the lower level, but when they get to varsity the lack of defensive fundamentals magnifies!! PNG DOES ZERO LIVE TACKLING IN PRACTICE!! ZERO!! And it shows every Friday night!!

 The year of 2015 top defense in the district, 

PN-G’s defense allowed a league-low 262.3 yards and 14.4 points per game through the regular season. After giving up 30 to Nederland in the Bum Phillips Bowl, the Indians defense gave up 27 total points in its last three 22-5A games.

His defense has ranked first in district 3 times and his total defense for the entire history of our school all 96 football seasons rank in at number 14, 29, 31, 34, and 35th all time in our history. Those are his best five defenses vs the other 96 Indians teams. Just some real actual stats and not feelings presented. 

[prepballfan]

On 4/26/2021 at 8:31 AM, Cougar14.2 said:

Everybody in the district pretty much lost all of their offensive production from last year, of the playoff teams Crosby probably took it the worst on the defensive side of the ball. Transfers are always welcome but we won't be looking for players for the next 5 or 6 years, we'll just be reloading. Crosby is going to field one of the more inexperienced teams I can remember but they have a bunch of talent on both sides of the ball and three games against Carthage, Manvel and PAM to get ready for district play. The biggest key for Crosby will be the development of some of the younger linemen. If Crosby's staff gets it figured out early then watch out, the Cougars may be Buffalo hunting for another shot at the title game. 

As for PNG, every year the talk is about the new quarterback. You absolutely need one to have a legitimate shot at a deep run but if feels like Indian fans are more concerned with passing yards than running the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage and playing defense which is how you go deep in the playoffs. Figured PNG would've seen that with the way RJ controlled games with his running ability. Defense may have 9 starters back but they'll still be at a disadvantage the way PNG plays offense. Even when Riordan had great athletes on the defensive side of the ball we struggled to keep team off the scoreboard due to the sheer number of opportunities the opposing offenses got. 

Five of the top ten rushers in our 96 year history have also come from Faircloth coached teams. 

[Cougar14.2]

17 hours ago, prepballfan said:

Five of the top ten rushers in our 96 year history have also come from Faircloth coached teams. 

I think that's a little misleading since three of those rushers were one person. RJ ran for 1533, 1627 and 1650 in his three years starting at QB and probably half of those attempts weren't even designed running plays. One of the other rushers you're probably eluding to is the back from the '13 team that Faircloth had to pull in the bi-district game due to ineffectiveness. I think what you outlined points more to PNG's lack or production from the running back position more than anything else.

[Cougar14.2]

18 hours ago, prepballfan said:

 The year of 2015 top defense in the district, 

PN-G’s defense allowed a league-low 262.3 yards and 14.4 points per game through the regular season. After giving up 30 to Nederland in the Bum Phillips Bowl, the Indians defense gave up 27 total points in its last three 22-5A games.

His defense has ranked first in district 3 times and his total defense for the entire history of our school all 96 football seasons rank in at number 14, 29, 31, 34, and 35th all time in our history. Those are his best five defenses vs the other 96 Indians teams. Just some real actual stats and not feelings presented. 

I remember PNG and Dayton having a shootout in bi-district that year, the last thing I would've pointed to as a positive for the Indians in that game was their defense. I actually came to the 2nd round game against Angleton that year because Crosby had beat them earlier in the season 34-0. It looked like PNG was playing touch football and a sophomore BJ Foster ran for like 325 yards and 5 TDs on probably 15 carries. PNG gave up 44.5ppg in those two playoff games after giving up those 27 point the last three district games to teams that finished the season a combined 13-18.  

 

[prepballfan]

3 hours ago, Cougar14.2 said:

I think that's a little misleading since three of those rushers were one person. RJ ran for 1533, 1627 and 1650 in his three years starting at QB and probably half of those attempts weren't even designed running plays. One of the other rushers you're probably eluding to is the back from the '13 team that Faircloth had to pull in the bi-district game due to ineffectiveness. I think what you outlined points more to PNG's lack or production from the running back position more than anything else.

Actually I have pulled the data as each person not per year. 

[Rez Ipsa]

On 4/25/2021 at 4:21 PM, NHSBulldogFan said:

Meanwhile across the tracks were losing many of our skill players but bring back the biggest name of 2020 Kyndon Fuselier...much of the defense is back led by 2nd team All State LB Jaice Beck

Fuselier is a stud. Does he have any college offers yet? In 2018 when he was playing as a freshman on varsity against PNG I would have bet he was the fastest player on the field not named Roschon Johnson. 

[Rez Ipsa]

On 4/27/2021 at 2:23 PM, prepballfan said:

 The year of 2015 top defense in the district, 

PN-G’s defense allowed a league-low 262.3 yards and 14.4 points per game through the regular season. After giving up 30 to Nederland in the Bum Phillips Bowl, the Indians defense gave up 27 total points in its last three 22-5A games.

His defense has ranked first in district 3 times and his total defense for the entire history of our school all 96 football seasons rank in at number 14, 29, 31, 34, and 35th all time in our history. Those are his best five defenses vs the other 96 Indians teams. Just some real actual stats and not feelings presented. 

I agree the defense wasn't always as bad as its reputation (excluding last year, which was painful), and your numbers back it up. But if we added just a little more physicality in practice wouldn't we be that much better? I'm not saying we need to be killing each other in practice, but there is no reason PNG shouldn't have a touch, gritty defense like West Orange's, and from what I hear, West Orange has pretty aggressive, physical defensive practices. I'd also like to know about other schools -- Nederland had a tough defense last year (except for when it played Lufkin and PNG) and Crosby's defense was rock solid (except for against Aledo and Liberty Hill). Do they do live tackling in practice? What about Barbers Hill? 

[Mr. Buddy Garrity]

Png doesn't do live tackling??

 

I was under the impression every 4A thru 6A around here did live tackling in practice........yikes. 

[AledoAlumni]

This being a R3 heavy forum, I was curious how yall view all the other regions in 5A? How would yall rank the regions in terms of quality teams? 

[Austin1985]

1 hour ago, aledoalumni said:

This being a R3 heavy forum, I was curious how yall view all the other regions in 5A? How would yall rank the regions in terms of quality teams? 

I rank Reg 3 tops in D1.  D2 is wherever Aledo is.  1 I reckon.....

[PNGFaithful]

17 hours ago, Mr. Buddy Garrity said:

Png doesn't do live tackling??

 

I was under the impression every 4A thru 6A around here did live tackling in practice........yikes. 

No