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Crunching some numbers for this years teams (and some history)


texbuzz

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·        This will be long.

Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number.  The Crosby number is better than I thought.  

So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing.  Allowing too many points, mistakes.  They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs.  Hell, I feel that way most times also.  But they win.  So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way.  

With vague statistics!!

Look at the table below:

2014 schedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Team X

17

21

-4

8

Team X

33

14

19

146

Team X

34

10

24

382

Team X

0

23

-23

438

Team X

31

28

3

112

Team X

41

12

29

524

Team X

34

39

-5

77

Team X

60

14

46

298

Team X

48

31

17

161

Team X

49

21

28

127

Team X

35

21

13

227

I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. 

That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results.  

Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results:

2014 Crosby Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

MaxPreps Rank

Nederland

24

20

4

426

Angleton

38

20

18

145

Barbers Hill

30

7

23

363

Humble

17

10

7

422

Galena Park

62

10

52

851

Kingwood Park

24

14

10

287

Dayton

41

35

6

220

New Caney

24

0

24

491

Porter

39

13

26

747

C.E. King

21

28

-7

88

 

Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1.  Who had the better regular season?  Crosby.  Wins matter and Crosby had more of them.  But as you know, that isn't the whole story.  I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play.  I am a fan so I am not unbiased.  And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past.  So this is what I found.

Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number.  This tells more than just W/L.  Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number.  The lower power number, the better the team has performed.

2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs  Power number for both?  

2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17

2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25

And the score showed as much.  I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell.  I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective.  

I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com.  Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number.  Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number.  Here is the Manvel table.  

2017 Manvel Schedule

Manvel Score

Opponent Score

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Pearland

45

7

38

91

North Shore

24

21

3

81

FB Willowridge

70

14

56

625

Ball

35

7

28

190

FB Marshall

56

27

29

166

FB Elkins

62

7

55

398

Texas City

       

Santa Fe

       

Galena Park

       

Manvel Averages

49

14

35

259

2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER #

 

7

 

 

Whoa.  No other team gets close to a 7.  Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some.  But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo).  They deserve that number.

Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket.  

Consolidated has a tough schedule.  

2017 AM Consolidated Schedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Copperas Cove

34

14

20

265

Magnolia

52

47

5

133

Austin

66

0

66

558

College Park

19

13

6

375

Waco

35

31

4

138

Temple

20

28

-8

50

College Station

17

28

-11

63

Bryan

12

3

9

218

University

       

Rudder

       

Team AVG

32

21

11

225

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

20

 

 

Next up is FB Marshall.  They took two bad losses that hurt their number.  

2017 FB Marshall Schedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Klein

7

27

-20

112

FB Hightower

20

7

13

300

Galena Park

57

7

50

733

FB Willowridge

77

20

57

625

Manvel

27

56

-29

3

Ball

55

7

48

229

FB Elkins

       

Texas City

       

Sante Fe

       

Team AVG

41

21

20

334

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

17

 

 

College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule.

2017  College StationSchedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Westlake

28

35

-7

4

Shoemaker

49

10

39

478

St. Pius

41

58

-17

16

Pflugerville

35

0

35

459

Bryan

35

34

1

218

University

62

14

48

772

A&M Consolidated

28

17

11

97

Rudder

49

14

35

560

Waco

       

Temple

       

Team AVG

41

23

18

326

 WORTHLESS POWER #

   

18

 

 

2017  Huntsville Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

China Spring

17

14

3

130

Conroe

41

13

28

636

Tomball Memorial

24

21

3

186

Willis

49

7

42

386

Magnolia

48

24

24

133

Waller

45

7

38

561

Tomball

       

Brenham

       

Magnolia West

       

Team AVG

37

14

23

339

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

15

 

 

PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play.

2017  PNG Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

Sterling

55

13

42

234

Lumberton

42

0

42

507

Livingston

56

14

42

1048

Lee

59

21

38

865

Port Arthur Memorial

44

36

8

137

Vidor

42

14

28

269

Beaumont Central

       

Ozen

       

Nederland

       

Team AVG

50

16

33

510

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

15

 

 

I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up.  Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting.

2017 Hutto Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

Bryan

54

14

40

218

Georgetown

25

23

2

98

Pflugerville Connally

63

28

35

621

Elgin

56

14

42

615

Bastrop

55

13

42

554

East View

56

19

37

451

Rouse

       

Cedar Park

       

Cedar Creek

       

Team AVG

52

19

33

426

 WORTHLESS POWER #

   

13

 

 

And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number.  It is higher than I expected.  Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team.  Does it feel that way?  Just by gut feel?  Nope.  But the numbers say this is a better team:

2017 Crosby Schedule

Crosby Score

Opponent Score

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

Jasper

42

36

6

151

Barbers Hill

48

32

16

231

Porter

42

35

7

333

LCM

58

14

44

279

Kingwood Park

63

45

18

422

Caney Creek

57

17

40

690

Dayton

69

27

42

454

Splendora

       

Humble

       

New Caney

       

2017 Season Avg

54

29

25

366

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

15

 

 

And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance.  That is the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. 

 

I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.

 

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@biaplayer  I don't "think" PAM is or isn't anything.  This is just the data I have found. 

I didn't run the PAM numbers because they were not in the DII bracket of the Texasfootball.com playoff projections or I just didn't see it.  My sincerest apologies.  The projections are usually for subscribers and was available but now it is pulled down or behind a paywall.  That being said...Ask and ye shall receive:

2017 PA Memorial Schedule PF PA Differential Maxpreps Rank
Beaumont Central 35 6 29 370
Ozen 41 0 41 774
Nederland 13 7 6 303
Lumberton 31 19 12 536
Port Neches Groves 36 44 -8 51
Livingston 61 20 41 1055
Lee        
Vidor        
2017 Season Avg 36 16 20 515
WORTHLESS POWER #     26  

 

I called it a "Worthless Power #" because it is a backwards looking number and you never know what might happen.  And MaxPreps ranks can be wonky.  

PAM played a very good PNG team to a -8 differential.  And I think it was a competitive game.  This number gives credit to that.  PNG's higher rank and only losing by 8 points is given credit in the number.  

The fact is, PAM has a really weak schedule.  PNG does too.  But PNG is putting up 13 more points per game than PAM.  

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7 hours ago, texbuzz said:

·        This will be long.

Long story short - If you take the point differential and divide it by the current MaxPreps rank you get a number.  The Crosby number is better than I thought.  

So, for the whole season this year, we have heard about how bad the Crosby defense is playing.  Allowing too many points, mistakes.  They won't be able to make it far in the playoffs.  Hell, I feel that way most times also.  But they win.  So....how do you quantify that in a meaningful way.  

With vague statistics!!

Look at the table below:

2014 schedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Team X

17

21

-4

8

Team X

33

14

19

146

Team X

34

10

24

382

Team X

0

23

-23

438

Team X

31

28

3

112

Team X

41

12

29

524

Team X

34

39

-5

77

Team X

60

14

46

298

Team X

48

31

17

161

Team X

49

21

28

127

Team X

35

21

13

227

I blanked the opponents name but you might be able to figure it out. 

That is the 2014 Cedar Park schedule and results.  

Now here is the 2014 Crosby schedule and results:

2014 Crosby Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

MaxPreps Rank

Nederland

24

20

4

426

Angleton

38

20

18

145

Barbers Hill

30

7

23

363

Humble

17

10

7

422

Galena Park

62

10

52

851

Kingwood Park

24

14

10

287

Dayton

41

35

6

220

New Caney

24

0

24

491

Porter

39

13

26

747

C.E. King

21

28

-7

88

 

Cedar Park had 3 losses that year and Crosby had 1.  Who had the better regular season?  Crosby.  Wins matter and Crosby had more of them.  But as you know, that isn't the whole story.  I wanted a way to apply the numbers that we have and figure out the true value of play.  I am a fan so I am not unbiased.  And, to me, I can't tell if I am watching a mediocre team stomp a bunch of bad teams or is this team really better than some teams in the past.  So this is what I found.

Dividing the average point differential by the team's rank on MaxPreps (don't start, it is the number I have and it is easy to find) will give you a power number.  This tells more than just W/L.  Stomping a bad team will be washed somewhat by the bad teams high ranking number.  The lower power number, the better the team has performed.

2014 Cedar Park lost 3 regular season games and handily beat Crosby deep in the playoffs  Power number for both?  

2014 Cedar Park Worthless Power Number = 17

2014 Crosby Worthless Power Number = 25

And the score showed as much.  I got a number for 2017 Crosby and I wanted to compare it with other teams to see where those numbers fell.  I didn't have time for all the teams so I was more selective.  

I pulled up the Playoff Projections off of texasfootball.com.  Every top 25 ranked team in the 5A DII bracket prediction got a number.  Plus I wanted to do Manvel just to validate the number.  Here is the Manvel table.  

2017 Manvel Schedule

Manvel Score

Opponent Score

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Pearland

45

7

38

91

North Shore

24

21

3

81

FB Willowridge

70

14

56

625

Ball

35

7

28

190

FB Marshall

56

27

29

166

FB Elkins

62

7

55

398

Texas City

       

Santa Fe

       

Galena Park

       

Manvel Averages

49

14

35

259

2017 Manvel WORTHLESS POWER #

 

7

 

 

Whoa.  No other team gets close to a 7.  Manvel only has 6 games so they could very easily come up some.  But their numbers tell me they are whipping most teams (I should do Aledo).  They deserve that number.

Next up is the ranked teams in the 5A DII predicted bracket.  

Consolidated has a tough schedule.  

2017 AM Consolidated Schedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Copperas Cove

34

14

20

265

Magnolia

52

47

5

133

Austin

66

0

66

558

College Park

19

13

6

375

Waco

35

31

4

138

Temple

20

28

-8

50

College Station

17

28

-11

63

Bryan

12

3

9

218

University

       

Rudder

       

Team AVG

32

21

11

225

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

20

 

 

Next up is FB Marshall.  They took two bad losses that hurt their number.  

2017 FB Marshall Schedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Klein

7

27

-20

112

FB Hightower

20

7

13

300

Galena Park

57

7

50

733

FB Willowridge

77

20

57

625

Manvel

27

56

-29

3

Ball

55

7

48

229

FB Elkins

       

Texas City

       

Sante Fe

       

Team AVG

41

21

20

334

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

17

 

 

College Station took some losses but this isn't that tough of a schedule.

2017  College StationSchedule

PF

PA

Differential 

Maxpreps Rank

Westlake

28

35

-7

4

Shoemaker

49

10

39

478

St. Pius

41

58

-17

16

Pflugerville

35

0

35

459

Bryan

35

34

1

218

University

62

14

48

772

A&M Consolidated

28

17

11

97

Rudder

49

14

35

560

Waco

       

Temple

       

Team AVG

41

23

18

326

 WORTHLESS POWER #

   

18

 

 

2017  Huntsville Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

China Spring

17

14

3

130

Conroe

41

13

28

636

Tomball Memorial

24

21

3

186

Willis

49

7

42

386

Magnolia

48

24

24

133

Waller

45

7

38

561

Tomball

       

Brenham

       

Magnolia West

       

Team AVG

37

14

23

339

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

15

 

 

PNG hasn't played talented teams but they have stomped the teams they did play.

2017  PNG Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

Sterling

55

13

42

234

Lumberton

42

0

42

507

Livingston

56

14

42

1048

Lee

59

21

38

865

Port Arthur Memorial

44

36

8

137

Vidor

42

14

28

269

Beaumont Central

       

Ozen

       

Nederland

       

Team AVG

50

16

33

510

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

15

 

 

I really like Hutto but they are going to run into a tougher schedule coming up.  Cedar Park lost their QB so that may get interesting.

2017 Hutto Schedule

PF

PA

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

Bryan

54

14

40

218

Georgetown

25

23

2

98

Pflugerville Connally

63

28

35

621

Elgin

56

14

42

615

Bastrop

55

13

42

554

East View

56

19

37

451

Rouse

       

Cedar Park

       

Cedar Creek

       

Team AVG

52

19

33

426

 WORTHLESS POWER #

   

13

 

 

And that gets us to the 2017 Crosby number.  It is higher than I expected.  Looking at the quality of opponent and the scores, this team is better than the 2014 team.  Does it feel that way?  Just by gut feel?  Nope.  But the numbers say this is a better team:

2017 Crosby Schedule

Crosby Score

Opponent Score

Differential

Maxpreps Rank

Jasper

42

36

6

151

Barbers Hill

48

32

16

231

Porter

42

35

7

333

LCM

58

14

44

279

Kingwood Park

63

45

18

422

Caney Creek

57

17

40

690

Dayton

69

27

42

454

Splendora

       

Humble

       

New Caney

       

2017 Season Avg

54

29

25

366

WORTHLESS POWER #

   

15

 

 

And sure, some of these playoff teams will get upended and be at home when we all just knew they would advance.  That is the way it is.  Will be interesting to see how well this number is predictively. 

 

I need to try and get all the numbers for the district.

 

Nice work

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they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand.

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On 10/23/2017 at 9:14 AM, biaplayer said:

they aren't my team but I just couldn't imagine where you were going with that. I don't put any stock into rankings myself, I just like to see them settle it on the field. I think both PNG and PAM are the cream of the crop in our district which is a weak district by my standards. With That being said, come playoff time that is when you start seeing some real teams in the second and third round, by then you have a good idea as to where you stand.

I think the rankings could be improved.  And according to the rankings that district is weak.  

Playoff wins are certainly the ultimate decider, in my opinion.  What are you saving for?  It's win or go home.  You win, you are better.  Period.  Every other excuse and reason and cop out doesn't matter to me. 

Better teams advance. 

But wait until the playoffs.....watch these losing fans say "you won this game BUT the refs, injuries...whatever."  All of it is just talk. 

Better teams advance.  

If my worthless power number is correct....Hutto should win the region (area..I can't remember what you call this group).

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I was in Austin last week and the radio station I was listening to was hyping up Hutto. Their QB is suppose to be really good, don't remember his name, but I think he's thrown close to 20 TD's and 1 int. They sounded like Hutto might be the team to beat in Central Texas. Not sure if they're D1 or 2 come playoffs.

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5 hours ago, TradenupBH said:

I was in Austin last week and the radio station I was listening to was hyping up Hutto. Their QB is suppose to be really good, don't remember his name, but I think he's thrown close to 20 TD's and 1 int. They sounded like Hutto might be the team to beat in Central Texas. Not sure if they're D1 or 2 come playoffs.

QB you're talking about is Chase Griffin he's a junior and he's thrown for about 2200 yards this year through 7 games might meet up with Crosby if they can break the second round jinx.

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43 minutes ago, bigdog said:

Are you saying in general or was that directed at Nederland?

I'm just saying that an exit after the 2nd round is better than an exit after the 1st or not making the playoffs at all. If your team falls into that category over the last few years, I wouldn't knock a team that has done better. 

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7 hours ago, CCRed said:

I'm just saying that an exit after the 2nd round is better than an exit after the 1st or not making the playoffs at all. If your team falls into that category over the last few years, I wouldn't knock a team that has done better. 

They don't really.  Ned has missed the playoffs only twice in the last 20 years and  have made multiple runs in the playoffs 

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9 hours ago, bigdog said:

They don't really.  Ned has missed the playoffs only twice in the last 20 years and  have made multiple runs in the playoffs 

TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs?

I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board.

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11 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said:

TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs?

I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board.

Done yet?

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36 minutes ago, Cougar14.2 said:

TexBuzz does all that work to provide some actual thought provoking information to the board, never said a coarse word about anybody in your district, and all you can muster for a response as a moderator is "All that and probably another second round exit."? Then somebody else makes a point about Nederland and you reply about them making runs?

I'd imagine what you meant to say is Nederland has only made it past the second round twice in the last 14 years when they had Deshaun Washington. You should've also thrown in that in the last decade Nederland has missed the playoffs or lost in the first round 6 times, including as the district champion to 4th place Kingwood Park. You will also lose in the first round again this year to Jim Holley and Porter like you did the last time you faced him at KP. That's what I call the definition of mediocre versus the boat you try to put Crosby in for losing one first round game the last decade. Crazy that as a moderator you even felt the need to get on a Crosby thread give a myopic response to a new, solid poster, that brings research and data to the "Everybody gets a trophy" board.

Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home.  Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips  consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there. :)

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5 minutes ago, bigdog said:

Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home.  Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips  consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there. :)

That was exactly my point. Where was Nederland last year BigDog. On the porch ?

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2 hours ago, bigdog said:

Funny how you choose to only include the years when Crosby was making noise and not all of the mediocre years before when they were sitting at home.  Nederland was in the playoffs and making third round trips  consistently when Crosby was doing good to get three or four wins. Kinda hard to win or lose a playoff game when your not there. :)

It's even funnier how you point to what kids did that are almost 40 years old now, none of the current kids on the team were even alive then. I guess when you play in the same stadium that's relevant though. Anybody that looks knows Ned had those four good years in the late 90's and the early 2000's when they first hired Neumann and have been pretty meh since, besides the three years with Washington. All you would have to do to find out where the programs are now is ask any coach with options where he would rather coach. Crosby and Nederland are currently two programs with completely different ceilings.

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