21-5A playoff teams

[Indianforever]

Who you got getting in?

[Red Dawn]

Crosby / New Caney

Porter / KPark

[texbuzz]

The following is an assumption by me.  Please correct If I am wrong. 

• Four teams from the district make the playoffs.  
• Those four teams are decided by (in order)-
  • Win/Loss record in District
  • Head-to-Head record (X and Y have same record,  X beat Y,  X has a higher rank for playoff eligibility)

Well, lets start here.  The following is attendance arranged from highest to lowest.  File is found 

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1. Caney Creek (0-4) - 1976.5
2. Kingwood Park (1-3) - 1836
3. Porter (2-1) - 1787.5
4. Humble (1-2) - 1719.5
5. New Caney (4-0) - 1706.5
6. Crosby (3-0) - 1668
7. Barbers Hill (2-2) - 1527
8. Dayton (2-2) - 1494
9. Splendora (1-2) - 1106

If the Playoffs started tomorrow - 

1. New Caney (4-0) - 1706.5   DIV I
2. Crosby (3-0) - 1668   DIV II
3. Porter (2-1) - 1787.5    DIV I
4. Barbers Hill (2-2) - 1527   DIV II
5. Dayton (2-2) - 1494
6. Splendora (1-2) - 1106
7. Humble (1-2) - 1719.5
8. Kingwood Park (1-3) - 1836
9. Caney Creek (0-4) - 1976.5

I expect Crosby and New Caney to be #1 and #2 regardless of last game outcome.  That is a reasonable assumption.  The only way Crosby gets pushed into DIV I is for Dayton or Splendora to take over for Porter.  

Splendora -  They have BH, Porter, and Crosby in the next 3 games.  Not likely they move into the group without replacing BH.  And then it is just a wash.

Dayton - This is possible.  Beat Porter at Porter. Go to 3-2, Porter goes to 2-2.  Win the Crosby game at home (doable)....my head starts spinning trying to keep track.   

My prediction with final W/L - 

1. Crosby (8-0) - 1668   DIV II
2. New Caney (7-1) - 1706.5   DIV I
3. Porter (5-3) - 1787.5   DIV I
4. Barbers Hill (4-4) - 1527   DIV II
5. Dayton (4-4) - 1494  (loss to BH)
6. Kingwood Park (3-5) - 1836
7. Splendora (2-6) - 1106
8. Humble (2-6) - 1719.5
9. Caney Creek (0-8) - 1976.5

 

[texbuzz]

7 hours ago, Red Dawn said:

Crosby / New Caney

Porter / KPark

I think Kingwood Park needs to add 3 wins to squeeze in.  You are predicting the following, I assume - 

1. Caney Creek - W
2. Dayton - L
3. Splendora - W
4. Humble - W

That takes KP to 4-4.  And the win over Barbers Hill puts them at the #4 spot if they have equal records.  (I am stating what I believe you are predicting).  This scenario seems more likely than what I predicted.  

[CCRed]

8 minutes ago, texbuzz said:

I think Kingwood Park needs to add 3 wins to squeeze in.  You are predicting the following, I assume - 

1. Caney Creek - W
2. Dayton - L
3. Splendora - W
4. Humble - W

That takes KP to 4-4.  And the win over Barbers Hill puts them at the #4 spot if they have equal records.  (I am stating what I believe you are predicting).  This scenario seems more likely than what I predicted.  

I think that all of the above listed games are winnable for KPark. That would give them only 3 losses and lock them in. Who knows though. 

[Red Dawn]

1 hour ago, texbuzz said:

I think Kingwood Park needs to add 3 wins to squeeze in.  You are predicting the following, I assume - 

1. Caney Creek - W
2. Dayton - L
3. Splendora - W
4. Humble - W

That takes KP to 4-4.  And the win over Barbers Hill puts them at the #4 spot if they have equal records.  (I am stating what I believe you are predicting).  This scenario seems more likely than what I predicted.  

You give me too much credit. Just a gut feeling for me. And I thought ink they can (not definitive) beat Dayton too. 

[texbuzz]

It is far too early for this conversation, but...at this point, I (and just me, I know the teams aren't) am looking at playoff placement.  I think Crosby and New Caney get in.  So is Crosby D1or D2?  Preference is D2.  That is answered by the attendance of the other two.  The only others with lower attendance are:

• Barbers Hill (2-2) - 1527
•  Dayton (2-2) - 1494
• Splendora (1-2) - 1106

From the comments of many here (you guys are solid, right?) Kingwood Park could possibly get into the mix here.  They bump Porter or BH.  Both scenario's keep Crosby at D2.  

Ok.  I am looking at it again.

Porter - They have 2 winnable games (Hum, Splen) on the schedule.  3 tough ones (Day, BH, NC).  They finish 4-4

Dayton - Beat Porter, Lose Crosby, Lose Kingwood Park, Beat Caney Creek.  They finish 4-4

Kingwood Park - Beat Caney Creek, Beat Dayton, (this is where I see the error of my 3-5 prediction), Beat Splendora, Beat Humble. They finish 5-3.

Barbers Hill - Beat Splendora, Beat Humble, Lose New Caney, Win Porter.  Finish 5-3.

Top 4 based on this scenario is -

1. Crosby (8-0)
2. New Caney (7-1)
3. Barbers Hill (5-3) 
4. Kingwood Park (5-3)

This....this is why this is so dumb to talk about this stuff halfway through the season.  Too many things to get sorted out.  And I can promise you I will be back for more. 

I gotta get back to work.

 

[pdawg119]

On 10/9/2017 at 3:22 AM, texbuzz said:

It is far too early for this conversation, but...at this point, I (and just me, I know the teams aren't) am looking at playoff placement.  I think Crosby and New Caney get in.  So is Crosby D1or D2?  Preference is D2.  That is answered by the attendance of the other two.  The only others with lower attendance are:

• Barbers Hill (2-2) - 1527
•  Dayton (2-2) - 1494
• Splendora (1-2) - 1106

From the comments of many here (you guys are solid, right?) Kingwood Park could possibly get into the mix here.  They bump Porter or BH.  Both scenario's keep Crosby at D2.  

Ok.  I am looking at it again.

Porter - They have 2 winnable games (Hum, Splen) on the schedule.  3 tough ones (Day, BH, NC).  They finish 4-4

Dayton - Beat Porter, Lose Crosby, Lose Kingwood Park, Beat Caney Creek.  They finish 4-4

Kingwood Park - Beat Caney Creek, Beat Dayton, (this is where I see the error of my 3-5 prediction), Beat Splendora, Beat Humble. They finish 5-3.

Barbers Hill - Beat Splendora, Beat Humble, Lose New Caney, Win Porter.  Finish 5-3.

Top 4 based on this scenario is -

1. Crosby (8-0)
2. New Caney (7-1)
3. Barbers Hill (5-3) 
4. Kingwood Park (5-3)

This....this is why this is so dumb to talk about this stuff halfway through the season.  Too many things to get sorted out.  And I can promise you I will be back for more. 

I gotta get back to work.

 

Based on this scenario, BH vs. Porter would essentially be a play-in game.

[Indianforever]

Who gets in and what 1st round matches 

[pdawg119]

 

5 minutes ago, indianforever said:

Who gets in and what 1st round matches 

Well using texbuzz's scenario for 21-5A, and my 22-5A prediction of 1. PNG, 2. PAM, 3. Nederland, 4. Vidor, here are my predicted matchups:

5A DI:

PAM vs KPark

NC vs Ned

5A DII:

PNG vs BH

Crosby vs Vidor

[CCRed]

Still a ways to go, but here is how I see it:

PAM   vs.    Kpark

Porter   vs.    Ned

PNG     vs.    NC

Crosby    vs.   Vidor

 

[Indianforever]

I would love to see Crosby vs Vidor

[CCRed]

5 minutes ago, indianforever said:

I would love to see Crosby vs Vidor

I honestly would rather Crosby go in as the #2 seed.  If you get past the #1 seed in 22-5a, you play 2nd round garbage schools from inner Houston.  Going in at #1 seed of 21-5a or #2 seed of 22-5a, the winner more than likely sees a Fort Bend school in the 2nd round. 

[Lightning/Eagle]

The way I see it, there are six teams that are in play for the four spots. I believe 5 wins will get you in.

Crosby is 3-0 with Caney Creek, Dayton, Splendora, Humble, and New Caney left. Finish no worse than 6-2

New Caney is 4-0 with Humble, Barbers Hill, Porter, and Crosby left. Finish no worse than 5-3.

Porter is 2-1 with Dayton, Splendora, Humble, NC and BH left. Two left that should be for sure wins. Porter will need to win at least one from the Dayton, NC, or BH games to get 5 wins.

Barbers Hill is 2-2 with Splendora, Humble, NC and Porter Left. Two left that should be for sure wins. BH will need to beat either Porter or NC to get 5 wins.

Dayton is 2-2 with Porter, Crosby, KPark, and Caney Creek left. One left that should be a for sure win. Dayton will need to win two games between Porter, Crosby, and Kpark to get to 5 wins.

KPark is 1-3 with Caney Creek, Dayton, Splendora, and Humble left. Three left that should be for sure wins. If Kpark beats Dayton they should get to 5 wins.

Given this and the teams wins the games they are supposed too then Dayton will have the harder schedule. Crosby will be in for sure and it appears NC is also. Kpark, Porter, and BH only need to win one against the contenders. My gut feeling is Kpark and Porter advance.

If 22 5A plays out like I think it will the matchups will be. Still a lot left to be determined and all of the seedings are still up in the air with my below predictions.

Crosby vs Vidor

NC vs PNG

Kpark vs Memorial

Porter vs Nederland.

[Red Boyou]

Looks like Hancock is gonna make the playoffs.....just saying.

[TradenupBH]

KPark will get beat by Dayton

BH will beat Porter

BH will be in the playoffs. Too much credit being given to Porter. The BH/KP game went south due to our QB going down and alot of turnovers. Our current QB is heating up now. Point is if Dayton is healthy, they beat KPark. BH is getting some injured players back and beats Porter.

[TradenupBH]

New Caney D1 #1

Crosby D1 #2

BH D2 #1

Dayton D2 #2

NC vs Ned

Crosby vs PAM

BH vs Vidor

Dayton vs PNG

Heard it here first

 

[Indianforever]

16 minutes ago, TradenupBH said:

New Caney D1 #1

Crosby D1 #2

BH D2 #1

Dayton D2 #2

NC vs Ned

Crosby vs PAM

BH vs Vidor

Dayton vs PNG

Heard it here first

 

That's bad for Crosby 

[CCRed]

29 minutes ago, TradenupBH said:

New Caney D1 #1

Crosby D1 #2

BH D2 #1

Dayton D2 #2

NC vs Ned

Crosby vs PAM

BH vs Vidor

Dayton vs PNG

Heard it here first

 

 

15 minutes ago, indianforever said:

That's bad for Crosby 

Don't think it will end up like that, but I don't see that bad for Crosby.

[texbuzz]

Dayton is going to need to wind 3 of the next 4 to get in.  BH has the tiebreaker.  If Dayton goes 2-2, they probably lost to K-Park or Porter.  Both K-Park and Porter can reasonable get to 5-3.  Tie breakers start to hurt Dayton.  

The numbers are against Dayton in my opinion.  I think they need 6 wins.  

If that is your gut feeling on it, Go Get Those 3 W's Dayton!!

That would be a pretty cool story.

[texbuzz]

I don't want the Crosby defense to play against Vidor's offense.  

Crosby has the right defensive gameplan for that Offense, but it is not their base and I don't know if they have the horses.

Crosby should score on the Vidor defense.  A lot.  But it will come at a physical cost.  Vidor makes teams earn their points.

The Vidor offense will win or lose that game. 

Their strength / Crosby weakness. 

Do not like.

(WHY AREN'T MORE FOOTBALL TEAMS RUNNING THAT MASTERPIECE OF BEAUTY AND VIOLENCE!!)

[TradenupBH]

I see it like this 3rd and 4th:

3rd BH (2-2)- WINS Splendora, Humble, Porter   LOSS New Caney  (5-3)

4th Dayton- WINS Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Porter     LOSS Crosby (5-3)

5th Kingwood Park- WINS Caney Creek, Humble, Splendora    LOSS Dayton (4-4)

6th Porter- WINS Humble, Splendora    LOSS New Caney, BH, Dayton (3-4)

Of course my prediction will probably be blown out of the water since HS games are so unpredictable.

 

[Lightning/Eagle]

1 hour ago, TradenupBH said:

I see it like this 3rd and 4th:

3rd BH (2-2)- WINS Splendora, Humble, Porter   LOSS New Caney  (5-3)

4th Dayton- WINS Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Porter     LOSS Crosby (5-3)

5th Kingwood Park- WINS Caney Creek, Humble, Splendora    LOSS Dayton (4-4)

6th Porter- WINS Humble, Splendora    LOSS New Caney, BH, Dayton (3-4)

Of course my prediction will probably be blown out of the water since HS games are so unpredictable.

 

I see what you're saying, but Porter will get to play 8 district games I believe.

[CCRed]

1 hour ago, TradenupBH said:

I see it like this 3rd and 4th:

3rd BH (2-2)- WINS Splendora, Humble, Porter   LOSS New Caney  (5-3)

4th Dayton- WINS Kingwood Park, Caney Creek, Porter     LOSS Crosby (5-3)

5th Kingwood Park- WINS Caney Creek, Humble, Splendora    LOSS Dayton (4-4)

6th Porter- WINS Humble, Splendora    LOSS New Caney, BH, Dayton (3-4)

Of course my prediction will probably be blown out of the water since HS games are so unpredictable.

 

Just curious, have you seen Porter play ?  They also have one of the better coaches in the district and a good quarterback.  I just don't see them losing to Dayton or BH.

[TradenupBH]

36 minutes ago, Lightning/Eagle said:

I see what you're saying, but Porter will get to play 8 district games I believe.

3-5, my bad